Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

If you were so inclined, it was the Thailand v Cameroon match which produced a DRT of sorts. Thailand led 2-0 after the 2nd goal was a Camerooney own goal. When you see own goals like this, it does suggest the lead is un-deserved. Cameroon got it back to 2-1 and there the scoreline stayed with Thailand's odds reaching 1.6 and lower. They lost 2-3 to a Cameroon side originally odds on. Thailand are a poor side and should not have won this match.

It was another quiet day with the favourites all performing as per the odds.

The betfair markets are largely illiquid so I'll take an initial view from the daily match list at www.willhill.com

The bankers today are not real bankers. I don't expect them to lose , rather than expecting them to win! The draw cannot be discounted in meaningless friendlies. The opponents are generally of such poor calibre that a win would be a surprise.

11:00 UK South Korea v New Zealand - 1.4 home BANKERS as far as South Korea not losing

Standout Stats

  • This friendly is being played in the Soeul World Cup stadium.

South Korea

  • Only 1 draw in 20 friendlies came in their last friendly against Uzbekistan.
  • Recent friendly home wins v Mali, Switzerland, Venezuela, and paraguay. NZ you feel are a level or 2 below these sides.
  • A loss to Costa Rica and a draw with Uzbekistan in the last 2 friendlies at home.
  • Recent home losses were only 0-1 v Tunisia and Uruguay.

NZ

  • No win in 9 matches in all competitions.
  • No win in 7 friendlies. Their last 2 friendly wins were 0-1 v Honduras and Saudi Arabia.
  • 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 aways. A 4-2 v Japan is eye-catching but we learn Japan were 4-0 up in that match.
  • A recent 1-1 with China is reasonable enough.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • NZ should not win unless they decide to change the sport to rugby today. That's my angle in here. I doubt we will see a DRT as South Korea are ultra fit,will have mental support in Soeul and really should have too much. Korea's form looks better too, only marginally losing to Tunisia and Uruguay at home, teams far better than NZ.
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11:00 UK Lithuania U19 v Belgium U19 - 1.17 away BANKER as far as Belgium u19 not losing

Standout Stats

  • This is a competitive match in the UEFA under 19 Championship.
  • This match is being played in Sweden so there is no home advantage.
  • This is Group 3 and Russia lead the group. Belgium have 3 points after 2 matches and Lithuania 1 point after 2 matches. The top 2 progress.

Lithuania u19

  • Only 3 wins since 2009 in this competition.
  • 1-1 away at Sweden u19 and 6-0 loss to Russia u19 so far in this campaign.

Belgium u19

  • 2 losses in their last 3 v England u19 and Russia u19.
  • In this particular phase, 2 matches played, and a 1-0 loss to Russia u19 and a 2-0 win v Sweden u19.
  • Based on collateral form, Belgium u19 edge it.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lithuania u19's record in this competition is dire and they are automatically opposed. There is no home or away distinction here as this is being played in Sweden.
  • 1.17 should suggest a goal before halftime, 3/4 goals from Belgium u19. Their contemporaries yesterday were similarly priced and only won 2-1, so the lower we go down the age group, the less reliable these matches become.
  • It will be a big shock if Lithuania u19 lead, and win, so lay them if they do.
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15:00 UK Argentina v Ecuador - 1.44 home - note William Hill have the time wrong. 12:30am is the time at Betfair.

Standout Stats

  • This friendly is being played in a neutral venue in New Jersey I believe.
  • Messi could be out today which will make Argie backers a little nervous. He has a swollen right foot.
  • 0-0 last time these 2 met in a friendly in 2013.

Argentina

  • Since June 2011, only Brazil ( 3 times) and Portugal ( 0-1) have beaten the Argies in a friendly.
  • Recent eye-catching wins v Germany, Croatia and El Salvador in friendlies.
  • No home advantage .

Ecuador

  • Only 3 wins in the last 11 friendlies were against Australia ( 3-4), Boliviar, and El Salvador.
  • In that run, they kept Brazil to 1-0, USA to 1-1, England to 2-2, and Netherlands to 1-1 so Ecuador will be a good firm test .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • An Argentina without Messi is a different Argentina. I would not entertain backing them at 1.44 . The odds at Betfair are 1.52. I would consider laying Argentina if they score first, as I quite like Ecuador's friendly performances against some very big names internationally.
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15:00 UK Portugal v Cape Verde - 1.1 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 back in 2010 was a shortie backers' nightmare and a shot across the bows regarding wading in today.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's for Cape Verde v Congo and Zambia suggests strong defensive bent.
  • I would definitely back 0-0 pre-match here and delay, hoping Portugal's match odds increase inplay.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • As you know, 1.1 suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil, as well as a goal before halftime at least. Do remember 2010's 0-0 which reminds us this is a friendly!
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16:00 UK Russia v Kazakhstan - 1.12 home - 6pm at www.betfair.com and 1.23 odds at Betfair. - BANKER as far as Russia not losing.

Standout Stats

  • 6-0 last time these 2 met in 2008
  • This is a friendly being played in Khimki

Russia

  • A solid friendly record is good to see for backers. 6 wins and a 1-1 in their last 7 friendlies.
  • It's a motley crew they have beaten, so the kazaks fit in well.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheet wins at home in friendlies.

Kazakhstan

  • Recent friendly wins v Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan and Kyrgystan.
  • A recent 1-1 draw with Moldova perhaps highlights the Kazak's standard.
  • Only 1 win in 8 away friendlies was a 1-3 win v Moldova.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Russia luckily seem to take friendlies seriously, that or they have played some poor sides lately. A bit of both I think. A near full strength Russia should not lose today against a side whose recent highlight was a win v the "Stans". Let's hope Borat's boys strike first or at least keep Russia to a 0-0 for a while to enable us to engineer a trade.
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18:30 UK Sweden v Iran - 1.57 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly being played in Sweden.

Sweden

  • No draw in 11 friendlies and only 1 draw in 23 friendlies.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 friendlies were against Estonia and Ivory Coast.
  • No draw in 12 home friendlies.
  • 8 of those matches were wins. Losses v Brazil, argentina, Belgium and Finland. You get the feeling Iran are not quite at the first 3 teams' standards.

Iran

  • 4 consecutive friendly wins includes Chile and Korean Republic.All 4 wins to nil.
  • Recent friendlies have seen the Iranians keep it really tight. They have conceded 0-0-1-0-0-0-0 recently. Good luck as Ibra will be giving them a work out tonight.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 aways .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to weigh up 2 teams from opposing parts of the globe whose form is largely against teams from their part of the globe.
  • What we see is an Iran, at their level, pretty solid defensively The Chile result looks very eye-catching. Will they offer some resistance to the Swedes.
  • If based on sweden, lay any late draw. Their friendlies tend to avoid draws. Sweden have only lost friendlies at home v Brazil, Argies, Belgium and Finland ( local derby) which is exceptional form.
  • Who to side with? Solid form of the Swedes v solid defensive capabilities ( at their level) of the Iranians?
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19:15 UK Luxembourg v Turkey - 1.2 away -BANKER as far as Turkey not losing

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly
  • These 2 have not met since 2006

Luxembourg

  • 5 consecutive defeats in all competitions is part of a run of 12 without a win.
  • Their last 2 wins were v Lithuania and Northern Ireland.
  • Those above wins came at home.
  • Ahhh, the perils of friendlies. A 1-1 with Italy in June 2014 was the last friendly result.
  • Most recent friendly was a 0-0 v the might of the , erm, Cape Verde Islands.

Turkey

  • "Head in hands" when I see a team with Colin Kazim'Richards up front. Followers of him at Feyenoord know he needs approximately 13, 465 shots on goal for every goal scored! You get the idea.
  • The turkish team is a team without any household names.
  • Turkey's last 2 matches have been promising. A 3-1 win v kazaks and a 1-1 draw in a qualifier with Holland.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 11 away matches were against the USA and Iceland.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1 draws.
  • Recent friendly defeats came against Brazil and the USA, not bad yard sticks.A recent run of 7 wins in 9 matches .
  • No draw in 16 away friendlies. Recent away wins v Ireland, Denmark and Honduras.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A feeling here that the Turks deserve their short odds. Not bad friendly form.
  • Can we lay the late draw? they tend to avoid it in recent away friendlies.
  • Luxembourg's recent 1-1 with Italy in a friendly reminds us of the fragility of relying on these matches. But a run of 12 without a win in recent form suggests Luxembourg will not be winning today if Turkey play anything like their first team today. Turkey have only lost to USA and Brazil in friendlies, and they are good yard sticks.
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19:45 UK Israel v Belgium - 1.6 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a competitive Euro qualifier so I will prioritise it.
  • This is a key game in Group B. Israel lead the group after 4 matches with 9 points. Belgium are 4th, after 3 matches, with 5 points.  A Belgian win takes them 2nd

Israel

  • No draw in 12 Euro qualifiers.
  • In what is a relatively easy group, Israel beat  Cyprus 1-2, Andorra 1-4 and Bosnia 3-0 after losing to Wales 0-3.
  • Notice that Israel have conceded against minnows like Cyprus and Andorra. Lord help them if Belgium click today.
  • 3-0 and 0-3 at home

Belgium

  • 6-0 v Andorra, 1-1 v Bosnia, 0-0 v Wales and 5-0 v Cyprus, the Belgians are in reasonable form.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • What concerns me with Israel is an inability to keep a clean sheet against minnows such as Cyprus and Andorra. This suggests a team such as Belgium, with the quality they possess, could punish Israel. I will lay Israel should they score first in this qualifier.
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19:45 UK Italy v England - 2.2 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly and is not worth researching at all. Woy will pwobably change the team round. A match to watch and enjoy.
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19:45 UK Holland v Spain - 2.5 home and away

Standout Stats

  • This is another friendly which on paper looks very exciting. Holland spanked Spain 1-5 in the World Cup so revenge is in the air.
  • That's the only recent head to head.
  • There is a feeling with Holland that friendlies are a bit of a shoulder-shrugger for them. Only 2 wins in their last 9 friendlies were against Ghana and Wales.
  • Holland have lost their last 2 friendlies v Italy and Mexico ( 2-3)
  • That 2-3 loss to Mexico came in their last home match. The Dutch, though, do have a historically good record at home in friendlies. Since 2006, they have lost only 3 friendlies at home, scoring in each defeat.
  • Spain's last 3 friendly defeats were 1-0's. They have lost their last 2 friendlies 1-0 to France and Germany.
  • In recent months, there seems to be a real emphasis in friendlies on defence? Spain have conceded 1-1-0-0-0-1-1 in recent friendlies. Coincidence or friendly experiment?
  • Spain have lost 2 of their last 3 friendlies 1-0 v South Africa and France. Again, there is a feeling that these would not be the scorelines were these competitive matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • When you see both the home and away team at odds of 2.5, the market is telling you " my brain hurts'. They haven't got a clue and we should take the hint and leave this alone.
  • I would, though, lay any side 2-0 up here as the odds tell us it is tight. Form wise, Holland tend not to concern themselves with friendlies if recent form is anything to go by. Spain, themselves, tend not to fear defeat in friendlies, although they have been very tight defensively. Is this something to expect this evening, with the 1-5 World Cup thrashing firmly in mind. It should be a great match to watch, rather than to trade.
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19:45 UK Falkirk v Cowdenbeath - 1.33 home

 Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive Falkirk wins, 2 in the league were 6-0 and 0-1.The 0-1 came on the 24th March!
  • This is 5th v 9th in the Scottish Championship. Falkirk could nick a play-off spot but need wins. Cowdenbeath will finish bottom 3, but 3rd bottom is not out of their grasp and will herald safety

Falkirk

  • Lost their last home match v Hearts.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0's, a win v Cow and a loss v Dumbarton.
  • Tend to lose to big teams - Rangers twice, Hearts 3 times, but are liable to tight losses v the likes of Raith, Dumbarton and Queen of the South.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Cowdenbeath

  • Conceded in their last 11 matches away
  • 4 matches losing streak, 3 away
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 11 losses in their last 14 matches.
  • 5-1-10-4-4- conceded in recent away matches.
  • 80% over 2.5 goals away from home.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay the late 0-0.
  • Falkirk's latest win over Cowdenbeath was a 1-0 and you feel they'll need another clean sheet today as they have had a couple of tight 1-0 results of late. Cowdenbeath have been conceding for fun away from home.
  • It's that part of the season - desparation stakes -which may see Cowdenbeath play above themselves in search for points. I would lay them if they scored first, but might consider a 0-1 insurance bet as Falkirk's 2 recent defeats have been 1-0.
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