Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The return to some league football today augurs well for the weekend. There will definitely be live chats on Saturday and Sunday.

16:00 - Ivory Coast v DR Congo - 1.94 Ivory Coast

  • Only 1 match into the African Cup of Nations for both sides.
  • Ivory Coast have a 0-0 v Togo. Congo had a 1-0 win v Morocco.
  • There have not been any recent head to heads.
  • Very little to go on. I thought we'd get an Algeria-style angle in. This match may be a cagey affair.
  • Ivory Coast have had 4 0-0's in their last 6 matches in all competitions. Is this a tactic? 0-0 and try to nick a winner?

19:00 - Morocco v Togo - 1.89 Morocco

  • A 1-0 loss to Congo for Morocco and a 0-0 for Togo v Ivorians.
  • I think I will return to this competition with more matches under the belt.

19:00 - Twente v Heracles - 1.75 Twente

Twente 100% stats

  • 2 home defeats were by only 1 goal.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Twente other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 home matches.

Heracles 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Heracles other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 away matches.
  • 89% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a strong pattern with both teams. Twente seem to score 2 goals the lower down the league they get. In that regard, I would lay Heracles if Heracles scored first.
  • Expect 2 goals at least today.

19:00 - Breda v Achilles 29 - 1.19 Breda

  • This is 5th v 20th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie - Achilles are bottom of the league.

Breda 100% stats

  • Only the 1 home defeat by 1 goal.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Breda other stats

  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • No defeat in 8 home matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • All wins home and away v bottom 5 sides includes 1-2 away at Achilles.

Achilles 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Conceded in every away match.

Achilles other stats

  • 8 consecutive defeats and 8 consecutive defeats away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away and last 8 overall.
  • All defeats home and away v top 9 teams.
  • 85% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Achilles are highly likely to concede and we are highly likely to see at least 2 goals.
  • This should be a Breda win. It was a tight 1-2 win the last time these 2 met.
  • Given Achilles are highly likely to concede, it is not a stretch to suggest we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Den Bosch - 1.68 De Graaf

  • Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 Dutch Eerste Divisie matches.
  • Both sides are in the bottom 7 so not having the best of times.

De Graaf 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

De Graaf other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 7 home matches.
  • 89% of points come at home.
  • Against teams 7th and lower at home (Den Bosch are 14th), De Graaf have scored 4-4-2-3-3-5-3-2 goals.

Den Bosch 100% stats

  • No away match with a 1-0/0-1.

Den Bosch other stats

  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • In 9 of 10 away matches, at least one team has scored 2 goals at least.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • 90% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • If De Graaf continue to score 2 goals at home and Den Bosch remain unbeaten v the bottom teams, then expectation is for both sides to score 2 goals? 2-2 correct score as a trading angle?
  • Let's hope for a 0-0 or only 1 goal coming to halftime. I would lay under 3.5 goals at halftime in that case.

19:00 - Helmond Sport v FC Oss - 1.81 Helmond

  • I like Oss in the Dutch Eerste Divisie. As you will see, the stats are good for these guys for trading.

Helmond Sport 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Helmond Sport other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 2 defeats at home v 2nd and bottom of the league.
  • 3-1 loss to Oss earlier this season.

FC Oss 100% stats

  • No clean sheets.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

FC Oss other stats

  • 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • 15 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 12 matches.
  • All defeats bar a single win away v top 14 (Helmond are 10th).

Conclusions

  • Both teams should score today. A very strong trend for Oss.
  • Oss could even score 2 goals at least today whilst conceding.
  • I tend to lay Oss if Oss lead 2-0 or higher.
  • Given the expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:30 - Freiburg v Bayern Munich - 1.28 Bayern

Freiburg 100% stats

  • No 0-0's.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • Not had a home match with 2 goals exactly.

Freiburg other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten last 4 matches.
  • Only failed to score in 2 matches.
  • Did lose 1-4 at home v 2nd.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bayern Munich 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 100% wins v 9th and lower home and away. Freiburg are 8th.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away matches.

Bayern Munich other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 loss at halftime.

Conclusions

  • Please note that this is the first match after a long come-back. Faith in the teams not being ring-rusty.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Bayern Munich should not lose at halftime so if Freiburg score first and early, lay them in the halftime market.
  • Bayern are likely to score first and negate any real trading opportunity. Bayern infact should win.
  • Freiburg do score and concede and must be opposed if leading.

19:45 - Brighton v Sheff Wed - 2.04 Brighton

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Brighton in the last 2 head to heads in the English Championship.
  • A chance for Brighton to go top today.

Brighton 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.

Brighton other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches and in last match so unlikely fail to score in 2 consecutive matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Scored in their last 9 home matches.
  • Sheff Wed are 6th. Brighton have only 1 loss at home.

Sheffield Wednesday 100% stats

  • All wins and defeats away from home have been by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Sheffield Wednesday other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Only failed to score in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have lost 1-2 to Brighton this season.
  • Only 2 wins away v teams 12th and higher. BUT 0-1 wins away v 1st and 5th.

Conclusions

  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • Brighton are solid at home and have scored last 9 matches so this should not be another 0-1 win Sheff Wednesday v a top 5 side.
  • Note the clean sheets for Sheff Wed. I would still lay Sheff Wed if Sheff Wed scored first.

 19:45 - SC Bastia v Nice - 2.38 Nice

  • Nice are joint first in French Ligue 1.

SC Bastia 100% stats

  • All defeats at home by 1 goal.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches.

SC Bastia other stats

  • 50% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 3 wins v teams above them in the league (considering they are 17th in the league, this is poor).
  • Drawn 1-1 v Nice already this season.

Nice 100% stats

  • No away match with exactly 3 goals.

Nice other stats

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 4 of 5 wins away were by a single goal.

Conclusions

  • I would expect the Nice 0-0 sequence to end today. It is unhealthy given they are joint top on points so expect a strong Nice performance.
  • Any win I think could be by a single goal.
  • It might be 0-0 at halftime but should not be 0-0 at fulltime for the above reason.

19:45 - Las Palmas v Deportivo - 2.14 Las Palmas

  • This is the Spanish La Liga.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • No home defeats.
  • No home match with 3 goals total.

Las Palmas other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches but failed to score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 1-1-0-1-0 scored in recent home matches.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No away match with exactly 3 goals.

Conclusions

  • No home defeats plays no away wins. Logic suggests Las Palmas will not lose.
  • Both teams have a very strong 2nd half scoring trend so if 0-0 at halftime, keep faith in this stat and goals 2nd half.
  • Lay Deportivo if Depor score first. Las Palmas have failed to score in only 4 matches albeit they have a poor recent scoring record.