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That was more like it last night! The return to league action sees a return to tradable games. Montpellier scored first v Nice who went on to win 2-1. All is well with the world when Werder Bremen see a goal before halftime and both teams scoring! Normality has been restored! ADO Den Haag scored first against a Twente side I quite fancied. 1-1 that ended. A 0-0 pre match nearly came off in the Inverness match (I tend to trade out at halftime) - Inverness scored in the 45th minute. I said in research they may be tough to beat. If you did lay Inverness, Rangers equalised for a profitable trade but Inverness went on to win. I do hope you were able to find these angles. I could not do a live chat last night as I was busy researching Saturday and Sunday matches.
Today there are a lot of matches where the betting market cannot split the teams (look at Alaves v Valencia - a favourite at 2.78 odds is not a favourite!). These matches are tough to call so I have not researched them all. See you at 14:30 here at delayreacttrade.com for a live chat.

12:00 - Alaves v Valencia - 2.78 Alaves

Alaves 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league saw 5 draws though!

Alaves other stats

  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.

Valencia 100% stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw v top 12 sides.

Valencia other stats

  • 6 losses in 7 away matches v top 12 sides.

Conclusions

  • Slight favour towards Alaves but when you see a favourite at 2.78 odds, that tells us it is a match that the market cannot predict.
  • Valencia tend to struggle v top 12 sides away. Is that enough to lay them if the score first.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Mainz - 1.74 Leverkusen

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches at home.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mainz 100% stats

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • All away defeats v teams above them in the league (where Leverkusen are).
  • Conceded 2 goals at least away v teams 10th and above.

Mainz other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 team.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We could see 2nd half goals here so mark that if 0-0 at halftime.
  • On form Leverkusen should not lose today.

14:30 - Freiburg v Dortmund - 1.61 Dortmund

Freiburg 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • Lost all 4 matches played v top 4 teams.
  • No 0-0.

Freiburg other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 9, one was v Bayern Munich.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away.
  • No away clean sheets.

Dortmund other stats

  • Only 4 defeats, all away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a strong pattern for both sides. Freiburg tend to lose to top 4 teams and Dortmund have yet to meet a top 8 side (Freiburg are 9th).
  • So it's just the both teams to score stats. Lay the first team to score?

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Hamburg - 1.17 Bayern

Bayern Munich 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home and unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored in all home matches and scored in the first half in all home matches.
  • All wins home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0.

Bayern other stats

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.

Hamburg 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Hamburg other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Did beat Leipzig away recently (2nd) but that was only one of 2 wins away.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Although Hamburg recently beat Leipzig, Bayern should retain their unbeaten run at home.
  • Do expect 3/4 goals at least from Bayern and if 0-0 at halftime, back 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score.
  • I would back Bayern to lead at halftime, particularly if 0-0 after 20 minutes.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v FC Koln - 1.72 Leipzig

Leipzig 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home when playing top 13 teams, with Koln in 7th.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0.

Leipzig other stats

  • All defeats this season have come in the last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came last match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 12 matches.
  • No draw in 16 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Koln 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 team away.
  • All 1-1 draws v top 3 teams.
  • Not won to nil away.

Koln other stats

  • Only 4 defeats came away.
  • Failed to score in 5 matches.
  • 4 defeats and a 1-1 away v 9th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay Koln if Koln score first.
  • Lay any late draw.

15:00 - Wolfsberger v Rapid Vienna - 1.97 Rapid Vienna

  • 2 draws and a 0-1 win for Wolfsberger in the Austrian Bundesliga so we may see a surprise today.

Wolfsberg 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league at home (as are Rapid).

Wolfsberg other stats

  • 6 defeats in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw in 11 matches.

Rapid Vienna 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches away v 3rd and lower.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 10 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Rapid VIenna should not lose today but may concede.
  • Lay any late draw.

15:00 - Newcastle v Bristol City - 1.52 Newcastle

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Newcastle other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 home draw.
  • Scored first in 12/16 home matches.

Bristol City 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 4 teams.
  • 3 2-1 defeats away v top 5 teams.
  • All defeats were by a single goal.
  • No 0-0.

Bristol City other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 18 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 11 away matches, conceding in those matches.

Conclusions

  • Newcastle are likely to win today but Bristol City might score in defeat. What chance another 2-1 defeat?
  • Back Newcastle if Bristol City score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

15:00 - Aberdeen v Ross County - 1.44 Aberdeen

Aberdeen 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Aberdeen other stats

  • 7 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • 5 wins at home in their last 6 matches.
  • Only home loss v Celtic.
  • 4-0 win at home v Ross County this season.

Ross County 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.

Ross County away stats

  • Only scored 1 goal in 5 matches played away v top 4 teams.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 of their last 14 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets only.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen delivered last weekend from 1-0 down to 1-2 win. They should be reliable especially in the excellent winning form they are in today.
  • Both teams could score - Ross County have that habit but without winning recently so that's a good angle.

15:00 - West Brom v Bournemouth - 2.1 West Brom

West Brom 100% stats

  • All home defeats v teams above them in the league (West Brom 8th and Bournemouth 14th).

West Brom other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came v Tottenham.
  • 6 wins in 7 home matches - great form.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • All defeats away v top 7 teams - will that stretch to 8th?

Bournemouth other stats

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • In 12 of their last 13 matches at least one team scored 2 goals.
  • In each of the last 6 matches away, at least one team scored 3 goals.
  • In 7 of 10 matches v top 7 teams, at least one team scored 3 goals.

Conclusions

  • West Brom should be shorter odds in my mind today so I would be shocked were they to lose. You can never tell though with Bournemouth if they get their act together.
  • Expect one team to score either 2 or 3 goals and expectation is for West Brom to score the 2/3 goals. Bournemouth v top 7 away keep losing - will that stretch to 8th?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in expectation of goals?

15:00 - C Palace v Middlesbrough - 2.16 Palace

Palace 100% stats

  • 2 bottom 5 sides so we are heading into relegation six-pointer territory.
  • 2 home wins were by 3 goals!!
  • No 0-0.

Palace other stats

  • 14 defeats, 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 18 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Only 1 home clean sheet.
  • 8 goals conceded in the 15 minutes before halftime.
  • Opponents scored first in 10/12 home matches.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

  • No away win v 17th and higher.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.
  • Not won to nil away.

Middlesbrough other stats

  • No win in 11 away.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • A match to leave well alone. These 2 cannot be trusted. One has 14 defeats in 18 matches, the other no win in 11 away matches.

15:00 - Chelsea v Swansea - 1.26 Chelsea

Chelsea 100% stats

  • No draw at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home wins v teams 9th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Chelsea other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • 83% over 2.5 goals at home.

Swansea 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 4 team conceding 2 goals at least in every match.
  • No away 0-0.

Swansea other stats

  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Have scored in all 3 matches v the top 2.
  • 17 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Chelsea are highly likely to win, scoring 2+ goals and both teams might score so watch out for, and hope for, a Swansea first goal.
  • Chelsea have had a habit of 1-0 leads at halftime. If the match is 0-0 for 30 mins or so, take a chance on a Chelsea halftime lead.
  • Lay any late draw.

15:00 - Everton v Sunderland - 1.42 Everton

Everton 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v teams 15th and lower. Sunderland are 20th.
  • No home 0-0.

Everton other stats

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • 3-4-6 goals scored in their last 3 home matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 11 goals scored in the last 15 mins of home matches.

Sunderland 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 10 teams - Everton are 7th.
  • No away 0-0.

Sunderland other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 v a poor Crystal Palace.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 10 away matches.
  • Opponents tend to score first in 10/12 matches.

Conclusions

  • Everton should win today, scoring 2+ goals. If they continue their recent superb scoring run at home, expect more than 2 goals.
  • Opponents tend to score first in Sunderland away matches so unlikely we will see a trade today.

15:00 - Hull v Burnley - 2.22 Hull

Hull 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower (Burnley are 12th), scoring and conceding in all 4 matches.

Hull other stats

  • Unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 15 of 21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not played the bottom 3 away yet.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Burnley other stats

  • 4 consecutive 2-1 defeats away.

Conclusions

  • 2-1 is worth backing, as is 1-2 I suppose as Hull are the type of team Burnley can end their winless away run against.
  • Both teams could score today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if it happens to be 0-0 at halftime. Really on form, Hull should not lose.

15:15 - Betis v Sevilla - 2.14 Sevilla

Betis 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 7 side (Sevilla are 3rd).
  • Not met 3rd-7th at home yet so nothing to gauge performance by.
  • No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Betis other stats

  • 1-0-2-0-0-1-0-1 goals scored in recent matches.
  • No defeat in 7 home matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored against both Barcelona and Real Madrid at home and kept Barca to a 1-1.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Scored in all matches v 8th and lower (Betis are 15th in the league).
  • Not lost to nil.
  • 10 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Sevilla other stats

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 11 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once away.
  • Scored and conceded all away matches v the bottom 5 - will that extend to the 6th bottom side?

Conclusions

  • A slight question mark as Betis are yet to meet 3rd-7th at home so they may surprise as they did in the 1-1 v Barcelona.
  • Looking at Sevilla, they are highly likely to score so note that if Betis score first or if the match is 0-0. They may even score and concede and I think not lose today.
  • No defeat in 7 for Betis at home must be respected but Sevilla really should be winning a match like this if on song. I note 2-3 wins v 16th and 17th away. The odds will be big for that today for you speculators (but Betis's scoring leaves a lot to be desired).

16:00 - Guingamp v Monaco - 1.77 Monaco

Guingamp 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Conceded 1 goal max at home per game v top 11 teams.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Guingamp other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • 3 2-1 wins at home in 4 matches v the top 6.

Monaco 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v teams 9th and lower (Guingamp are 9th).
  • No 0-0.

Monaco away stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 20 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • 14 goals scored away first half hour of matches.
  • Scored first in 10/13 matches away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would back 2-1 Guingamp as a saver but do expect Monaco to be very competitive. Monaco are highly likely to score and score first. They might be layable if scoring first. Given Guingamp's record of 2-1 wins v top 6 I will defer to in-play stats.

17:00 - Napoli v Atalanta - 1.61 Napoli

Napoli 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Scored in every home match.

Napoli other stats

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 9 wins in 11 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored last 18 matches.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 10 team away.
  • Beat Napoli 1-0 at home.

Atalanta other stats

  • 6 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Have beaten 2nd, 3rd and 4th at home.
  • 14 of 20 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2 goals at least today between these 2 teams.
  • Intriguingly Atalanta have beaten 2nd-4th at home but yet to meet them away.
  • Both teams have an excellent scoring record so I would not be surprised if both teams scored.
  • Both teams are in excellent winning form in recent matches.
  • We may see a good Atalanta performance - I will have to use the in-play stats today too to determine if Napoli deserve their short odds.

17:30 - Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.18 Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only played 1 of the top 5, a contentious fergie time (and more!) Bayern equaliser.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Hertha Berlin other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came at home.
  • 4 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at halftime.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Scored first in 8/10 at home.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • 3 losses in the 3 matches played away v top 9.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Frankfurt other stats

  • Not scored 2 goals in a match away v top 14 sides.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I think Hertha can continue their excellent home form and not lose this match. That is the angle.
  • With Frankfurt currently unable to score that 2nd goal away, lay them if they lead.

17:30 - Watford v West Ham - 2.66 Watford

Watford 100% stats

  • No draw v top 10 teams.

Watford other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 8 matches at home v 14th and higher.

West Ham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All away wins have come v teams below them in the league (where Watford reside).

West Ham other stats

  • Looking at recent defeats, largely it takes an inform team to beat West Ham. E.g. Everton, Tottenham, Arsenal, Leicester (the exception), Manchester United and Manchester City.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • This could be a goal fest as it was with the 2-4 earlier in the season. Looking at the teams West Ham have been losing to suggests to me that Watford do not fit into this category! I would think West Ham can get a positive result so would be laying any Watford lead (both teams could score today).

19:45 - Juventus v Empoli - 1.17 Juventus

  • I won't do full research here.
  • Juventus are expected to score 3/4 goals today and that is backed up by what they have achieved v teams around Empoli's position in the league.
  • Juventus have an excellent 2nd half scoring record so if 0-0 at halftime or if they have not scored by halftime, fear not.
  • Empoli consistently lose to top 6 teams conceding 2 goals at least.
  • With 21 home goals before halftime, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Eibar v Malaga - 2.1 Eibar

Eibar 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 5th-19th (Malaga are 13th).

Eibar other stats

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.

Malaga 100% stats

  • No away win.

Malaga other stats

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away matches.
  • 16 of 22 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I think Eibar are favoured here and should not lose. Both teams could score but best case score draw I think for Malaga. THat would be my angle here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given that Malaga concede terribly in the first half.

19:45 - Heerenveen v Roda JC - 1.59 Heerenveen

  • 2 consecutive comfortable wins in the Dutch Eredivisie head to head for Heerenveen.

Heerenveen 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league (heer are 7th to Roda's 14th).
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Heerenveen other stats

  • 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (but put into the above context!).
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home - over half of matches.
  • 13 of 16 home goals scored came 2nd half.

Roda JC 100% stats

  • Not beaten a team above them in the league.

Roda JC other stats

  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 8 matches away v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Heerenveen should not lose today. Roda, note, do do a lot of 0-0's but Heerenveen tend to score.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, I would note how many goals Heerenveen score 2nd half.
  • Roda have scored 2 goals twice away v teams above them in the league, without winning!