Sweden, Croatia, Holland, Eng-er-land, France, Italy and Spain are all represented today.
I will also be tweeting @drtclub for the tennis - the Rome Masters only. It has been 2 successful days of tennis trades. My strategy is simple really and profitable so far. I look for market over-reactions!
A case in point. Mahut plays Isner. Mahut leads 3-1 early on. Isner's odds shoot up to 2.3. Back him after this over-reaction! Isner wins the next match. 3-2 and panic is over. Isner's odds soon dropped to 1.35 within that first set.
I am hoping for more of the same today from about 11 am. My focus today is on Svitolina, Del Potro, Nishikori, Nadal, Jack Sock, Dominic Thiem Raonic, Stan Wawrinka (although Stan is not as reliable as I would like). These are the matches catching my eye.
17:00 - Dinamo Zagreb v Istra 1961 - 1.13 Dinamo Zagreb
- I include this match given Dinamo Zagreb ended a run of 6 years without a loss in a home league match with 2 defeats this season at home.
- Istra drew 1-1 the last time these 2 met at Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatian top league.
- Dinamo Zagreb are some 5 points shy of Rijeka with 3 matches remaining this season so must start winning.
- They have 3 consecutive wins to nil now but, as I say, this season they have 2 home losses in the league, the first since August 2010.
- 1-1 and 1-2 v Istra this season for Zagreb. Their only home defeats came v the top 4.
- Istra have 5 defeats and a 1-1 draw with leaders Rijeka in the last 6 matches.
- No away 0-0 for Istra.
- Istra have yet to beat a top 8 side away from home.
- 1.13 odds suggests 3/4 goals from Zagreb but head to heads suggest a 1-1 or 2-1! Which is it to be?
- Istra should not be winning so mark that if they lead at any point.
- This is a must win for Dinamo Zagreb or they will forfeit the title.
17:30 - Heerenveen v Utrecht - 2.68 Heerenveen
- Your initial thoughts should be 'avoid' when you see a market where the favourite is 2.68 odds.
- Utrecht are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
- This is 9th v 4th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
- 8 teams are involved in a semi-final format, I am guessing, for European club competition places.
- I am not sure how to research these one-off fixtures.
- Heerenveen ended the season really poorly with 7 defeats in 9 matches.
- Utrecht ended the season with 7 wins in 8 matches, only Feyenoord beating them.
- For me Utrecht have the head to head advantages and they have the real momentum.
- I am with Utrecht here and will lay any Heerenveen win, hoping the end of season Utrecht form will be reflected in this semi-final format.
- This looks like the first of 2 legs.
18:00 - Orebro v Sundsvall - 1.91 Orebro
- Sundsvall have scored 3 goals in 4 of the last 5 head to heads, tending to win, but the last match was 3-3.
- This is 13th v 12th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 8 matches.
- It is all about patterns this early in the season. Sundsvall have now 4 0-0's in their last 5 matches. They are on a run of 5 draws.
- This 0-0 sequence must be opposed today.
- That said, we meet an Orebro who seem to have snacked on too many Oreos. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and failed to score in their last 2 matches.
- Orebro's 2 home 2-1 wins came v teams 8th and 9th which hints that they may find a fellow struggler easier prey.
- Sundsvall's 0-0's away all came v top 7 sides.
- The longer a 0-0 sequence goes on, the nearer it is to its end. I will oppose any late 0-0 today.
- Despite Orebro's poor scoring record in their last 5 matches, I am taken by their 2 2-1 wins v 8th and 9th at home as an indication that today's opponents may be within their level.
18:00 - Hammarby v Malmo FF - 2 Malmo
- Continuing the introduction into the Swedish Allsvenskan, we have 4 matches today.
- Malmo scored 3 goals in each of the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 7th v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan after only 8 matches. As I said with Norway yesterday, patterns and form will not be well-founded after only 8 matches.
- Hammarby this early season have a habit of scoring and conceding (6 of 8 matches this season).
- At home Hammarby remain unbeaten with 2 draws and a win.
- Hammarby are yet to play any of the current top 11 at home.
- All of Hammarby's home goals so far (3 matches) have come 2nd half.
- Malmo remain unbeaten this season with 6 wins and 2 draws.
- They are on a run of 3 consecutive 2-1 wins and have scored and conceded in their last 4 wins.
- Draw, Win, Draw, Win patter for Malmo away so far this season. Like Hammarby, Malmo have failed to score only once.
- Only 8 matches in but there is a reasonably both teams to score pattern for both sides.
- Malmo look like conceding but not winning and Hammarby have scored and conceded in 6 of 8 matches this season.
- I would certainly be opposing any Hammarby lead here. I expect Malmo not to lose.
- You may want to back 1-2 Malmo pre match and hope that pattern continues (or at least becomes tradeable at 0-2 or 1-1).
18:00 - Hacken v Halmstads - 1.39 Hacken
- 3-4-2-4 goals scored by Hacken in their recent head to heads.
- This is 14th v 6th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Only 1 loss for Hacken this season.
- Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their 8 matches this season.
- Halmstads have 5 defeats in 6 matches, failing to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Given 4 Halmstads defeats came with home advantage and v top 7 teams, it looks clear cut today.
- This looks like a potential win to nil for Hacken so I would be surprised with any Halmstads lead and confidently lay Halmstads or even back Hacken given the goals they consistently score against this opponent.
- In the hope for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
18:00 - Ostersunds FK v Sirius - 1.82 Ostersunds
- We see 4 consecutive score draws in head to heads. This is a sequence I would be keen to see end.
- This is 9th v 3rd in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Clearly Sirius have made the better start in the first 8 matches.
- Both teams have scored in Ostersund's last 6 matches.
- Win, Draw, Win at home for Ostersunds.
- 3-4-2 goals scored ended with only the one v Malmo.
- Ostersunds beat current 2nd 1-0 at home which might explain their odds on status v 3rd.
- Sirius have scored and conceded in their last 3 matches, 2 of which were score draws.
- Sirius away wins came v 2nd and 4th, loss v 5th and 0-0 v 6th.
- I would be keen to lay any late score draw in the hope the head to head sequence ends. And it may, as Ostersunds scored 3-4-2 goals until meeting 1st placed Malmo.
- If they can carry that momentum on, they could score 2+ goals.
- Sirius are hard to read and they are yet to play away outside of the current top 6 teams where they have beaten 2nd and 4th so the argument is there too for them to cope admirably with 9th in the league?
- So it is just laying the late score draw that interests today if we see a late score draw of course.
19:45 - Southampton v Man Utd - 2.78 Southampton
- The first thing to mention is the market. Man Utd are not even favourites. the market makers cannot split the teams and are undecided as to the outcome.
- 2-0 Man Utd when these 2 last met.
- This is 9th v 6th in the English Premiership. The market thinks United's Premiership ambitions are over with an inability to mathematically reach the top 4.
- Southampton gain little by any result today.
- Man Utd have one more league match on the 21st May then the Europa League Final on the 24th May 2017.
- I bet Mourinho makes some team changes today.
- This is a match to leave well alone I'm afraid. Not a trading angle to be had!
19:45 - Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield - 2.28 Sheff Wed
- It's 0-0 from the first leg of this Championship play-off semi final. I think away goals rule is in place which must give advantage to Huddersfield today.
- I was monitoring the first leg. We profited from another back of 0-0 pre match. Second half though, it was Huddersfield who showed by far the better in-play stats for shots on target and off target.
- I am not sure if that was simply down to them playing at home or whether it is indicative of them being the better side.
- I do not think a pre-match back of 0-0 is viable in this second leg. The Final smell will waft into the nostrils and that could spark goals. Traditionally second legs have tended to be over 2.5 goals affairs.
- No other angles really to be had in this tough to read match. So much is at stake.
19:45 - Groningen v AZ - 2.56 AZ
- As with the earlier dutch match this is the first leg of a two-legged semi-final, presumably to determine European club competition places.
- In the last 4 head to heads, AZ have remained unbeaten and kept 2 consecutive head to heads.
- As I did with the earlier match, a quick look at end of season form sees Groningen with 4 wins, a loss and a draw in their last 6. The loss was a 4-3 epic.
- 2-3-5-3-1-5 goals scored by Groningen as their Dutch Eredivisie season ended. Impressive stuff.
- They did score and concede in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar scored and conceded in their last 6 matches at the end of the season and lost their last 2 matches.
- 3 of the last 4 AZ scorelines were 2-1.
- It is tough to get an angle as 2 legged matches will engender certain tactical changes to account for the format.
- Both teams could score today. And I would be drawn more by Groningen's superb goal scoring.
- If I was to pick a team to be with, I would be with Groningen. That means I would look to oppose any AZ lead. The match odds though tell you that this is tough to call.
20:00 - Monaco v St Etienne - 1.19 Monaco
- 4 1-1's and a 1-0 Monaco in recent head to heads.
- Monaco are Champions. Well, PSG could be Champions but it will require Monaco to lose their remaining matches and PSG win theirs.In so doing, PSG would have to make up a +17 goal difference.
- Monaco need a point to nail the title beyond any fanciful mathematical permutations.
- St Etienne could move up a place maximum if winning their 2 remaining matches.
- 16 wins and 2 draws for Monaco now and they are un-burdened by the Champions League.
- In 15 of their last 18 matches Monaco have scored 2 goals at least.
- Monaco failed to score only once.
- They have led 2-0 at halftime in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 18 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
- Only 2 wins in 11 for St Etienne came away.
- Only 2 defeats in 9 were heavy defeats to Marseille and PSG.
- With 8 0-0's at halftime away, St Etienne are known for 2nd half scoring.But they have scored 1-0-0-0-2-0-0 away v top 9.
- 13 of St Etienne's 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Monaco are not mathematically Champions but it will take a monumental cock up as well as significant goals deficits for PSG to win the title.
- Last home match for Monaco and they could score first at home and negate any real trade. 1-1 St Etienne in head to heads but St Etienne have failed to score in 5 matches away v top 9.
- Expect a good send off for Monaco fans. 2+ goals should be within their grasp to end the 1-1 draws v St E. Do remember though that a draw will nail the title for Monaco.
20:00 - Juventus v Lazio - 2.14 Juventus
- Juventus have already lost to one Roman team recently and play the other today in the Italian Cup.
- In head to heads across all competitions, Juventus have tended to win to nil.
- I can't help but think that the Champions League Final is at the forefront of Juventus' minds.
- This is the Final of the Coppa Italia.
- On form Juventus must be fancied today and I will lay Lazio if Lazio lead at any point, simply because Juventus are the best team in Italy.
- The only niggle is said Champions League Final.
20:00 - Celta Vigo v Real Madrid - 1.23 Real Madrid
- Both teams have scored in the last 6 head to heads, the last 2 coming in the Cup.
- This is 13th v 2nd in the Spanish Primera Liga. Real Madrid are on the same points but have a game in hand over Barcelona.
- 7 defeats in 8 matches now for Celta sees them marking time until the season ends, happily ensconsed in mid-table mediocrity.
- Celta have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- Celta have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- No 0-0 at home for Celta plays a Real with no 0-0 all season.
- Apart from a 4-3 win v Barcelona at home, Celta have lost all other home and away encounters v the top 8 teams.
- 19 of Celta's 26 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 3 defeats for Real Madrid all season. They have scored in every match.
- 7 consecutive away wins for Real Madrid and 10 consecutive away over 2.5 goals matches. They have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
- 100% over 1.5 goals for Madrid.
- Real Madrid are grateful they are meeting a Celta side whose season is over. And doesn't it show? 7 defeats in 8.
- At their best, Real Madrid are more than capable of matching the 3 goals Celta have had scored against them last 3 matches.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Contemplate a 1-3 , 2-3 any other away score if Celta score first.