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Monday's Coupon. Where Football Matches go to die. We usually get a tough selection on a Monday as all of the glamorous matches are played over the weekend. I do not usually do a live chat Monday as I would like a rest day.

SPANISH LA LIGA

19:00 - Sociedad v Espanyol - 1.82 Sociedad

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads.

Sociedad

  • Sociedad started with goals and wins and you thought they were contenders this year. Then 3 consecutive defeats including the likes of Real Madrid and Valencia and it was a case of 'maybe not'.
  • They are back with a 4-4 and a 0-2 win v Alaves.
  • 3-3-4-1-0-2-4-2 goals scored so nothing wrong up front but a case of the Liverpool's in some matches. 2-3 and 4-4 recently!
  • Failed to score only the once as you see above.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Espanyol

  • 1-0-0-0 scored away -it does set this up for a Sociedad win?
  • 2 wins came at home.
  • All defeats v current top 5 and all away defeats v current top 3.

Conclusions

  • Yes, Espanyol have only lost to Barcelona and Real Madrid away from home so a context there. They have only 1 goal in 4 away matches and I remind you to check out Sociedad's scoring this season. 2 goals only should be enough from Sociedad and on form I would have to be with the home side today.
  • Do note with Espanyol 0-0 is in play. They have had 2 very recent 0-0's but Sociedad themselves have not even had a 0-0 at halftime at home and their attacking prowess really should end any 0-0.

20:00 - Deportivo v Girona - 2.1 Deportivo

Deportivo

  • Started at home v Real Madrid and Sociedad and lost. Now 2 consecutive home wins v Alaves and Getafe. Girona are very much in the same mould as those latter 2.
  • 0-0 away v 16th and 1-0 at home v 19th and they meet 17th today.

Girona

  • A single win at home to Malaga we put down to enthusiasm at being in the top flight (solid first 2 games) but Girona's wheels have fallen off as reality bites.
  • 4 defeats and 2 draws since. Even when they have scored 3 goals, they still drew!
  • I must say the Girona defeats were all v the apparent big guns in Ath Bilbao, Sevilla, Barcelona and Villareal.

Conclusions

  • 2 also rans in La Liga who I would ordinarily ignore. For me there are not enough matches played in order to form deep-rooted patterns for these 2.
  • It is obvious Girona are struggling back in the top flight but scoring 3 goals in their last away match (albeit a 3-3) is encouraging.
  • Deportivo have a 0-0 and 1-0 v bottom sides and that is a contrast to Girona's 3-3 last away match.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals ......and the reason why this is lumped in on a Monday!!

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

17:30 - AEK Athens v Atromitos - 1.52 AEK Athens

  • 2-2 and 0-1 AEK in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 7 matches played in the Greek Super League.

AEK Athens

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 2-4-3 scored at home.
  • Failed to score only in that away defeat.

Atromitos

  • 4 draws and 3 wins.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins, one an away win v the mighty (or once mighty) Olympiakos.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • With 2 0-0's and 2 1-0 wins in their last 5 matches, AEK may have trouble breaking them down.

Conclusions

  • In a quiet day I thought I would check out some peripheral leagues. This looks attack v defence. Who will out? The market has rather confidently sided with an AEK Athens scoring 9 goals in 3 at home.
  • But Atromitos have had 5 consecutive clean sheets, a couple of 0-0's and 1-0 wins, most notably away v Olympiakos.
  • I would back 0-0 pre match here and hope the defence is on top. It Atromitos are to win it is most likely to be a 0-1.
  • It AEK are to win, they are most likely to score 2 goals at least.
  • Tough to take sides. Strong attacking v strong defending.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - FC Oss v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 2.5 Jong

  • The market is totally off-putting here but I like this league as usually it is full of goals. We shall see.

FC Oss

  • No win in 3 at home saw 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came in the first 2 matches of the season.
  • Both teams have scored in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 2 matches.
  • Only 0-0's at halftime were those first 2 matches of the season.
  • Opponents have scored first in 4/5 at home.
  • Not led at halftime yet at home.

Jong Ajax

  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 away, winning 2 of them.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It does seem to have all of the usual characteristics.
  • Strong chance of a goal before halftime. Strong chance for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals.
  • Here is how I see this playing out. FC Oss may concede first as happens at home and concede 1st half (not led at halftime at home).
  • Jong Ajax should be able to equalise, then one of these 2 teams will score that 3rd goal.
  • 3-1 and 1-3 as pre match trading angles appeals to me given Oss had a 3-1 home win v 11th (they play 10th today) and Jong Ajax had a 1-3 and 1-2 away v 7th and 14th.
  • A hope for goals.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Odds v Lillestrom - 2.02 Odds

  • 3 consecutive Odds away wins, one in a friendly, in head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 11th after 25 matches.

Odds

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Have a really solid look at home v 6th-15th inclusive where they have won all matches.
  • 9 goals scored first half at home.

Lillestrom

  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 away.
  • Scored in their last 12 away.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Only 5 clean sheets in 25 matches. Highly likely to concede.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 14 goals conceded 1st half away.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It does look as if both teams will score and, form wise, Odds are most likely to win. It looks like it could be a 2-1 if it is to be a home win. Odds have a 100% win record at home v 6th-15th inclusive and play 11th today.
  • This match should certainly not end 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMERA LIGA

19:00 - Moreirense v Braga - 2.08 Braga

  • 2 consecutive Moreirense wins, one in the cup, in head to heads.
  • Moreirense in the league are 2nd bottom.

Moreirense

  • Only 1 win.
  • 0-0-1 scored at home. BUT Kept Sporting Lisbon to a 1-1 draw.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Braga

  • No draw this season.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Losses v Benfica, Porto and Setabul. Bar Setabul, it seems Braga are vulnerable to the Triumvirate.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • All wins in 5 matches played home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Shot across the bow from Moreirense in keeping SPorting Lisbon to 1-1 at home and you fear that is the best they can hope for today against a Braga tending only to lose to the big boys.
  • I do not expect Braga to lose today. With 3 consecutive wins they could sneak 2 goals at least as long as that Moreirense defence does not click.
  • 0-0-1 scored at home Moreirense should not be enough to tame Braga.
  • Braga have avoided the draw so far this season. The longer this sequence goes on, the nearer it is to ending.
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

17:30 - Lokomotiv v FK Krasnodar - 2.8 Lokomotiv

  • 4 1-2 scorelines in head to heads, 3 for Lokomotiv.
  • 2nd v 6th was the reason I thought I would look at this. The market cannot split these 2 at all.

Lokomotiv

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came at home.
  • Failed to score only in those defeats.
  • No draw at home.
  • 3 home wins were 1-0, 2 were v the current bottom 2.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 wins v top 5 and play 6th today.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Krasnador

  • 3 consecutive defeats saw them fail to score.
  • Not beaten a top 5 team yet this season.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Acknowledge the market which cannot split these 2 teams.
  • Strictly on form, I would not expect Krasnador to win. IF we look at their form v the current top 5, 3 losses to nil (2 with home advantage) and a draw.
  • Lokomotiv only lose when they failed to score. They have scored in 3 wins v top 5 teams, 2 of those away  and that impresses.
  • Lokomotiv are likely to score first, and have only conceded one equaliser at home so may take a 2-0 lead before conceding.
  • I must remind you when the market says 2.8 the fav, quite simply it is saying this could go either way. I am taking the stance that Lokomotiv have the better early season form and should not lose.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Hammarby v Sirius - 1.9 Hammarby

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met in the Allsvenskan.

Hammarby

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches and they are 1.9 favourites. Are Sirius playing in clown shoes?
  • Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets all season so any win will require 2 goals at least.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower (Sirius are 9th).
  • 2-1, 2-1, 3-1 at home v 7th, 8th and 10th.
  • 17 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sirius

  • 7 defeats in 8 matches.
  • 3-2-2-2-1 total goals before halftime in recent matches.
  • No draw in 11.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss away v top 7 but 4 defeats in 5 matches away v 8th - 12th inclusive.
  • 18 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Scored 10 goals in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Fear not a 0-0 at halftime. We should see 2nd half goals with these 2.
  • Looking at Sirius recent matches there should really be a goal before halftime.
  • Hammarby are highly likely to score and concede and possibly nick the winner as happens with the 3 teams directly around Sirius in the league.
  • Lay any late draw.

18:00 - Malmo FF v AIK - 2.22 Malmo

  • 1st and 2nd in the league and not sure this is a tradable match. Could be tight.
  • 2-0 and 0-1 Malmo in the most recent head to heads.
  • Call Rachel Riley. I think this is season over. Malmo are 10 points clear of AIK with 3 matches remaining.
  • Dead rubber for Malmo. It is still an important match for AIK this season as they want to ensure a top 3 spot and 5 other sides have a mathematical change of a top 3 spot.
  • I am not researching this but would tentatively nod towards teams which always need the points.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

18:00 - Besiktas v Basaksehir - 1.78 Besiktas

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Basaksehir in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Dangerous to dismiss the new kids on the Turkish block, Basaksehir.
  • 8 matches or so into the season.

Besiktas

  • 2 defeats and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 2 defeats were 2-1 and came away from home.
  • 2 goals scored in every home match. 2-2 latest.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not met the top 6 at home yet and Basksehir are 5th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in all home matches.

Basaksehir

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins. 3 of the last 4 matches saw 2-2, and 2 2-1 wins.
  • Basaksehir have scored 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came 1st match of the season.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Wins away v current 2nd 1-2 and 6th 2-3 (Fenerbahce).
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 2 of the big 4 in the Turkish Super Lig so this might be tighter than the odds suggest.
  • I think Besiktas odds are too short. Basaksehir have scored 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches and have beaten 2 of the current top 6 away. Note this might be too early in the season to get firm conclusions as Basaksehir have also lost away to the bottom 4.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market on form.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Argument for backing 2-2 pre match (Besiktas have scored 2 goals in all matches at home and Basaksehir scored 2 at least in 4 of their last 5 matches).
  • I would watch out if I was Besiktas today. If Basaksehir click, they might do to Besiktas what they did to Fenerbahce (2-3 win).