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Ahh, the Europa League, the Krypton Factor League. Just because there is a high profile competition, it does not mean you have to trade in it if you cannot find any trading angles. Second Legs will automatically produce trading angles.
Today sees some big teams out on a Friday in order to capture the US audience and to give certain teams some breathing space before their Champions League encounters.

18:00 - Nice v Caen - 1.7 Nice

  • Intriguingly, Caen have won the last 2 French Ligue 1 head to heads, albeit with home advantage.
  • This is 3rd v 14th. Nice are bang in there in the title race.

Nice 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • All wins at home v top 13.

Nice other stats

  • Only 2 defeats, one was against Caen.
  • Only conceded 2 goals once at home, and still won.
  • 13 goals scored at home in the first 30 mins of matches.

Caen 100% stats

  • No win away v top 6.
  • Not scored 2 goals in an away match v top 11.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Caen other stats

  • Only 2 away wins were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Nice are unbeaten at home and likely to remain so if Nice cannot break their poor winless record away to top 6 sides.
  • Caen will be vulnerable if scoring first so note that.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Nice's Usain Bolt like starts at home. I do nod to Caen's 3 recent 1-0 scorelines suggesting some defensive capability - I just hope the Nice attack is on top today.

19:00 - Vitesse v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.69 Vitesse

  • 0-1 to Vitesse in the most recent Dutch Eredivisie match.
  • This is 8th v 14th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Vitesse 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in all home matches v teams 5th and lower.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Vitesse other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 home matches.
  • 3-2-2 goals scored at home v teams directly around Sparta in the league.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side away.

Sparta other stats

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.

Conclusions

  • On form, Vitesse should be looking at a win here. Sparta away v top 11 are poor and are more likely to lose than draw.
  • 2/3 goals is possible if Vitesse can score as they did v the teams on either side of Sparta in the league.

19:30 - Leverkusen v Werder Bremen - 1.65 Leverkusen

  • 3 consecutive Werder wins in head to heads saw both teams score.
  • This is 10th v 14th in the German Bundesliga.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No draw v 13th and lower home and away.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches v bottom 1/3rd teams.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 7 saw 4 defeats and 3 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals at home.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored  in all away matches from 2nd and below.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • 3 consecutive wins and 2 were 2-0 - where is the both teams to score now?
  • Only 3 clean sheets and failed to score only twice - it does lend itself to both teams scoring.
  • Scored in their last 10 away.
  • 91% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Have Werder had a bang on the head? No goal before halftime and 2 2-0 wins in their last 3 matches?
  • Usually we expect a goal before halftime (100% record away by the way) and both teams to score (Werder have scored in their last 10 away so a hope they keep up their part of the bargain).
  • Leverkusen have not had a 1-0 or 0-1 at home so that I hope will lean us towards both teams scoring. Both sides have a 90+% stat for 2 goals or more in total and that again lends itself to seeing 2 goals at least today.

19:45 - Brighton v Derby - 1.9 Brighton

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 2nd v 10th in the English Championship. A 0-0 for Newcastle mid-week. Can Brighton rub it in at hope today?

Brighton 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Scored in every match v top 11 teams at home.

Brighton other stats

  • 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
  • 50% of home matches saw 1-0 at halftime.
  • Only 2 home defeats.

Derby 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 8 side away.
  • Failed to score in 4 matches played v top 3.

Derby other stats

  • 4 1-0 defeats in their last 5 away matches.
  • All 1-0 defeats away v top 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • This could be another tight match but with Derby unable to land a blow as is seen in their 4 matches v top 3 sides and 3 1-0 defeats v top 4 away.
  • So look at this match with the expectation of Brighton eventually scoring. We may see 0-0 for a while but Brighton have managed to score at home in all matches.

19:45 - Juventus v Milan - 1.46 Juventus

  • Milan won the last Italian Seria A head to head 1-0 but that is not the norm. I am ignoring Coppa Italia and Super Cup head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 7th.

Juventus 100% stats

  • All home wins.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
  • Not lost at halftime in any home matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all matches at home v 8th and lower.

Juventus other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 8 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 21 goals scored first half at home.
  • Scored first in 13/14 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 11/14 at home.

Milan 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 side away.
  • Lost away to 2nd and 3rd.

Milan other stats

  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • 1-1-1-1 scored last 4 matches, seeing 2 0-1 wins and a 1-1 draw.
  • Only 1 away 0-0.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 1.46 was the odds when Juve played Udinese latest and that ended 1-1. Expect more of the same today. This should be a tougher fixture for Juventus.
  • Juventus meet Porto on the 14th March in the Champions League. The proximity of that match must have an impact on today's match.
  • Strictly on form, Juventus should not concede 2 goals so if Milan score first, logic suggest Juve scores next.

19:45 - Espanyol v Las Palmas - 2.2 Espanyol

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 9th v 12th in Spanish Primera Liga.

Espanyol 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1.

Espanyol other stats

  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored 3 goals at home in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Scored in last 7 at home.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.

Las Palmas other stats

  • 3 and 5 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 11 away.

Conclusions

  • Las Palmas have conceded in all away matches. Their away form is poor. They may have goals in them - 8 in 2 matches now.
  • Espanyol have scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches and may simply outscore Las Palmas today. That would be my angle. I would even lay a Las Palmas 0-2 lead.

19:45 - Marseille v Angers - 1.72 Marseille

  • 0-1 Marseille and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 10th in French Ligue 1.

Marseille 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower.
  • 10 clean sheets and 2 matches with only 1 goal conceded in those matches.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Marseille other stats

  • No draw in 13 matches and in 8 at home.
  • Only the top 2 have beaten Marseille at home lately.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Angers 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not scored 2 goals away v top 13 sides.

Angers other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • Only 1 win away v top 13 teams.

Conclusions

  • Marseille's strength is their defence. I may even back 0-0 pre match given Angers have 3 clean sheets in 5 matches. I try to trade out near halftime if lucky enough to have called the 0-0 correctly.
  • Marseille must be fancied here. Their home form is superb outside of the top 2 teams. If Angers score first, they are unlikely to score that 2nd and are layable.

20:30 - Arouca v Porto - 1.28 Porto

  • 1-2 Arouca and 3-0 Porto in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Portugeuse Primera Liga. Porto go top with a win.

Arouca 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals v top 10 teams home or away.
  • No over 3.5 goals at home.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Arouca other stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 /1-2 scorelines at home.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.

Porto 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 4th and lower.
  • Not conceded 2 goals away v 5th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil.
  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Porto other stats

  • 12 wins in 13 matches.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 21 matches.
  • 8 consecutive wins.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 may be in play if Arouca show their best. They are certainly not expected to score 2 goals and that should ensure a positive for Porto today.
  • Porto really should continue their winning sequence. Back Porto if Arouca score first.