Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I am away all day today. I want to carry on tennis trading but will be unable to today. I have researched the eye catching matches. Remember, back the 'over reactions'! Irish Premier Division has some tradable matches. I hope to trade these this evening and will tweet if available.

16:30 - Lahti v Ilves - 2.42 Lahti

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 8th v 6th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Lahti stats

  • 3 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 2 defeats but 8th because of 6 draws.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not scored in both halves.
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • Conceded all 3 home goals 2nd half.
  • Keeping 1st and 2nd to 0-0 at home suggests tough to beat?

Ilves stats

  • Only 1 draw came 1st match.
  • Only 2 wins in last 6.
  • No draw in 6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored 5 of 7 away goals 2nd half.
  • 4 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. 0-0 sequences tend to end. If Ilves are to score it is highly likely to be 2nd half so note that if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Ilves form away looks stronger but if Lahti are good at keeping clean sheets, if they score they win! So I will stick with laying late 0-0 and looking for 2nd half goal if 0-0 halftime.

19:45 - Bray v Derry - 2.62 Bray

  • 2-2 and 2-3 Bray in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.

Bray

  • Only 1 win in 8 after a superb start to the season.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 8 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2-0-2-2-5 goals conceded recently.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not played top 3 at home but beat 2nd and 3rd away.

Derry

  • Unbeaten in 10 albeit 7 draws.
  • 3 0-0's in the last 4 away matches.
  • 5 consecutive away draws.
  • Only away loss v 1st.

Conclusions

  • I do tend to lay the late draw with longish draw sequences.
  • Lay the late 0-0, Bray tend to avoid 0-0.
  • Tough to call and the market agrees, putting up the favourite at odds of 2.62!

19:45 - St Patricks v Bohemians - 1.87 St Pats

  • 0-4 St Pats in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.

St Pats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No draw v top 9 at home.

Bohemians

  • No away draw.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 away wins.
  • Only 2 draws, one was a 0-0 last match.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Lost 0-4 to St Pats earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw
  • Those are the only angles really for me. Look too at 2 goals total at least if St Pats can continue their 100% over 1.5 goals pattern.

19:45 - Drogheda v Dundalk - 1.39 Dundalk

  • 2-6-2-3 scored by Dundalk in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 2nd in the Irish Premier Division.

Drogheda

  • 3 consecutive 0-0's and again I would be keen to lay the late 0-0 to end this sequence.
  • Failed to score last 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home draws.
  • Not beaten top 4 this season.
  • 3-1 Dundalk win v Drogs earlier this season.
  • 0-0 v 3rd and 4th at home.

Dundalk

  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches, they came within the last 3 matches.
  • No draw away.
  • Scored in all away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • All wins bar 1 home and away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • This should be a Dundalk win. 0-0 is in play given Drogs recent record and Dundalk's recent clean sheets.
  • I would expect 0-0 to end today given 100% over 1.5 goals for Dundalk away and their scoring in every match away.
  • So lay any late 0-0 and favour Dundalk as the most likeliest first goal scorers.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Shamrock Rovers - 1.73 Shamrock

  • 0-2 Shamrock and 3-2 Shamrock in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 5th in the Irish Premier Division.

Finn Harps

  • 2 consecutive home wins scoring 3 goals in each.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Lost to 1st, 2nd and 4th at home.

Shamrock Rovers

  • Only 2 draws were 1-1 so no 0-0 this season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 defeats in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 2 away wins. losses away v 9th and 11th were 2-1 and play 8th today.

Conclusions

  • The stats say Finn Harps are likely to concede and Shamrock, failing to score only once, can be trusted to keep that stat up.
  • That is an angle if Finn Harps score first. Shamrock are in poor away form so their favouritism here is puzzling.
  • I would speculatively back 3-2/2-3 today as a trading angle in case Shamrock score and Finn continue to score 3 goals at home.

20:00 - Cork City v Limerick - 1.34 Cork

  • Cork have won the last 3 head to heads with relative ease.
  • This is 1st v 6th in Irish Premier Division.

Cork City

  • All wins bar a 1-1 draw.
  • 0-3 win for Cork earlier this season v Limerick.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 2 matches.
  • Scored 2+ in all home matches, all wins.

Limerick

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches v the top 2 this season, all defeats.
  • 1-1-0-1-1 conceded though v top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Cork are obvious favourites and with good reason. If they continue to score 2 at home, they win as Limerick are yet to score v top 2 this season.
  • Should Limerick score first, I will back Cork at enhanced odds or select 2-1, 3-1 as potential correct scores.
  • Given Limerick away have been defensively tight v top 7, we may see 0-0 for a while but I would expect Cork to eventually score as they have in all matches this season.

STUTTGART ATP

Tomas Berdych v Feliciano Lopez - 1.44 Tomas

  • 13th v 40th.
  • 6-6 in head to heads.
  • Last head to heads were 2014.
  • Both players performed as I expected.
  • I cannot see Tomas losing 2-0 here. Lopez does tend to fall foul of these top 20 players so if Lopez wins the first set I would lay him.

Kohlschreiber v Pouille - 1.66 Kohl

  • 31st v 14th.
  • Kohl is German.
  • He won in 2 sets on hard in 2017.
  • Both players had 3 setters and 2 tie breakers in their last grass court matches here.
  • Pouille recently has been a tough nut to crack. 3 setter, 2 tie breakers, 5 setter, 3 setter (best of 5), 5 setter and 3 setter.
  • Given Pouille's battling qualities I would look to lay Kohl if Kohl wins the first set.

Tommy Haas v Mischa Zverev - 1.72 Zverev

  • A cautious market despite Haas being 459th to Zverev's 35th.
  • Herbert and a certain Federer the wins for Haas. This is his last tournament. These are Germans in Germany
  • This should be an interesting match.
  • I am not sure how to play as Haas is obviously on the decline but has the spirit in him at home in his last Hurrah.
  • I think I will sit this out despite laying Fed when he played Haas.

Benoit Paire v Jerzy Janowicz - 1.87 Jerzy

  • Not a match which greatly appeals on paper.
  • 49th v 165th and note the higher ranked player is favourite.
  • Jerzy won the 2 most recent head to heads in 2015.
  • An impressive win v good yardstick Dimitrov for Jerzy.
  • Not for me this one. No reason why such a high ranked player should be fav.

RICOH OPEN

Aljaz Bedene v Gilles Muller - 1.42 Muller

  • 68th v 28th.
  • Muller won most recent head to heads 2015.
  • Bedene has a long record on grass in England of course but nothing spectacular.
  • It has taken a good one to beat Muller recently - I think I pointed that out the last time I researched him.
  • On that basis, I must lay Bedene if Bedene wins the first set, or if Muller's odds rise, I will back him.

Ivo Karlovic v Daniil Medvedev - 1.45 Ivo

  • 22nd v 63rd.
  • No head to heads.
  • Big Ivo in NO tie breaker shocker! Straight sets last match.
  • Medvedev has won 10 of his 15 grass court matches over time. He didn't get through qualifying though in Wimbledon last year.
  • Ivo's tie breakers tend to turn up a lot in his grass court form. He won the Hall of Fame on grass last year in 3 tie breaker sets.
  • Ivo looked good yesterday. Medvedev played Kokkanakis who is on the come back trail so form there is muddling. I am with Big Ivo not to lose 2-0.

Julien Benneteau v Alexander Zverev - 1.11 Zverev

  • 106th v 21st.
  • German Zverev must be favoured here. Not sure the odds are accurate as I am researching the night before and some tennis markets are illiquid.
  • Solid clay form for our Alex. How did he get on, on grass, last year?
  • Finalist at Halle and round of 32 at Wimbledon for Alex.
  • Benneteau has a habit of not lasting long in ATP events.
  • I have to side with Zverev and just hope his odds rise at some point so I can back him at value odds.

Marin Cilic v Vasek Pospisil - 1.29 Marin

  • 8th v 112th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Quarters, Final, round of 32, quarters, quarters for Cilic. He had a relatively good clay season. In Stuttgart last year, Cilic lasted only one match. He did though reach the semi finals at Queens and the Quarter finals at Wimbledon.
  • Dolgopolov retired yesterday so Vasek had a muddling win.
  • Vasek is a Challenger player these days.
  • Vasek has poor Grass form in comparison to Cilic.
  • Cilic did lose the first set yesterday and win the next 2. More today please as Cilic on form really should be untroubled.

WTA Nottingham

Johanna Konta v Ashleigh Barty - 1.58 Konta

  • 7th v 85th and the odds are still not overwhelmingly with the top 10 player.
  • That said at 1.44 yesterday, Konta cruised to an easy win.
  • She had a really poor French Open losing to Hsieh after winning the first set 1-6. Round of 16 at Nottingham last year, round of 16 Birmingham, semi finals in Eastbourne, 2 rounds only at Wimbledon for Konta on grass last year.
  • She has improved markedly since across all codes - hard especially.
  • Barty didn't get out of Wimbledon qualifiers last year on grass.but reached the quarters in Nottingham.
  • Konta is a head scratcher. V Hseih, she spanked her first set in France, but lost the next 2 sets.
  • Yesterday she was in superb ruthless form, 6-1 2nd set.
  • I would side with Konta at home today but do get a feeling her odds may rise in play. I would be keen to back her at higher odds.

Magdalena Rybarakova v Ahn - 1.37 Rybar

  • 384th v 155th and fav Rybar. I argued yesterday her ranking could be down to some injury break.
  • Winner in Surbiton where Ahn played, Rybarikova eventually beat Riske despite us profiting from backing Riske at high odds and trading out at 1.5.
  • That was a good win in my eyes and I am with Rybar on that basis. She should not lose 2-0 so oppose any Ahn lead or back Rybar if she gets to 1.8.