Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

League football returns this weekend. If I am online I will tweet from 19:00. Note the 'if'. It is Friday and I do live chats Saturday and Sunday.

18:00 - Metz v SC Bastia - 2.04 Metz

  • 2-0 Bastia in the last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 19th in French Ligue 1.

Metz 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • Scored 2 goals at least at home v 12th and lower.

Metz other stats

  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • Only failed to score in one match.
  • 14 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of matches.

Bastia 100% stats

  • No draw away v 4th and lower saw 10 losses and 2 wins.
  • No 0-0 away.

Bastia other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 13 away matches.
  • Only 1 away clean sheet v bottom side.
  • 22 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Form suggests Metz could score 2 goals today and Bastia continue to struggle away from home and more likely lose.
  • If 0-0 for a while, remember Metz failed to score only once and Bastia had only one clean sheet away.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, note Bastia concede heavily 2nd half so do not expect a fulltime 0-0.

19:00 - Roda JC v Twente - 2.34 Twente

  • 0-1 Twente and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 7th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Roda JC 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals v top 10 at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Roda JC other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 home matches.

Twente 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away v bottom 6 teams.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Twente other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • If Roda cannot score that 2nd goal v top teams at home, I must lay them if they score first.

19:00 - Telstar v MVV Maastricht - 1.92 MVV

  • 4-0 Telstar and 2-1 MVV in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 3rd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Telstar 100% stats

  • Not played top 3 at home.
  • Failed to score at home v 4th, 5th, 6th.
  • Not beaten top 7 home or away.

MVV 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • All away wins v 16th and lower.

MVV other stats

  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches.

Conclusions

  • I am with MVV here who tend to win v 16th and lower away from home and play 15th today. MVV tend to score 2/3 goals regularly v these teams and that will be my expectation today.
  • Back MVV if Telstar score first. Telstar have yet to play a top 3 side but failed to score v the top 6 teams they played at home.

19:00 - Jong PSV v Helmond Sport - 1.71 Jong

  • The home side does not tend to lose head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 12th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Jong PSV 100% stats

  • No draw at home v teams below them sees 10 wins and 3 defeats.

Jong PSV other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 draw at home.
  • 10 wins and a loss at home v 8th and lower.

Helmond Sport 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 7 teams.
  • Failed to score away v top 8 teams.
  • Not won to nil away.

Helmond Sport other stats

  • 7 defeats in 8 matches.
  • 5 defeats in 6 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • I would have to favour Jong PSV today. Helmond are having trouble scoring away v the top teams. Jong PSV have a solid look to themselves away.
  • Lay Helmond if Helmond score first.

19:00 - Achilles 29 v Almere City - 1.53 Almere

  • 3 consecutive Almere wins in head to heads.
  • This is 20th v 7th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Achilles 29 100% stats

  • Lost to all top 10 at home.
  • Not beaten any top 10 home or away.
  • Conceded 2-6 goals at home v top 10.
  • Not won to nil at home.

Achilles 29 other stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 3 goals at least in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 80% over 2.5 goals at home.

Almere City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v bottom 4.

Almere City other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away.
  • Scored last 12 away.
  • Only 5 away wins, and scored and conceded in 4 of them.
  • Scored and conceded all aways v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 2-3 is an interesting scoreline for me. Both teams scoring seems to be a pattern and Almere not losing away v 11th and lower.
  • I just hope Achilles are in goal scoring mood.
  • In expectation of goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v FC Eindhoven - 1.97 FC Eindhoven

  • 2-1 Eindhoven in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 11th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Jong Utrecht 100% stats

  • Wins v 10th-16th inclusive at home.

Jong Utrecht other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.

FC Eindhoven 100% stats

  • Scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 7 sides.

FC Eindhoven other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I would look at both teams scoring today. On bare form, Jong Utrecht at home actually have a solid winning record v teams 10th-16th.
  • I will go with that today and lay FC Eindhoven if FC scored first.

19:00 - Dordrecht v VVV - 1.21 VVV

  • 3-0  and 3-1 VVV in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 19th v 1st in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Dordrecht 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Lost to all top 4.

Dordrecht other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

VVV 100% stats

  • All clean sheets away v bottom 4 sides.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

VVV other stats

  • Only 2 defeats since 23rd September.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 away.
  • Only conceded 1 goal in 7 matches v bottom 4 sides.

Conclusions

  • I expect a VVV wins and a possible clean sheet win. At their best they can score at least 3 goals today.
  • Rather straightforward angles. Do not expect a 0-0. If Dordrecht lead, do not expect that to continue for long.

19:00 - Emmen v FC Oss - 1.53 Emmen

  • 2-3 Oss, 0-3 Emmen, 0-2 Oss and 2-2 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 17th in Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Emmen 100% stats

  • 6 matches v 16th and lower saw total goals of 3+.

Emmen other stats

  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • At least one team scored 2 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in their last 4 home matches.

FC Oss 100% stats

  • No clean sheet.
  • We see one team scoring 2 goals at least in all matches v top 12 teams.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

FC Oss other stats

  • Only 4 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • In 6 of 7 away matches Oss conceded 3 goals at least.
  • 13 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.

Conclusions

  • The expectation is for one team at least to score 2+ goals today. We are likely to see over 2.5 goals.
  • FC Oss could concede 3 goals again. They have scored 2 goals in the past and still not won so the hope is Oss score first and even lead 0-2 as they will be opposable.
  • 3-1, 3-2 are logical choices on the assumption Emmen win.

19:30 - Dortmund v Ingolstadt - 1.3 Dortmund

  • 3-3 the last head to head. I could do with a bit of that today!
  • 2-0 and 3-1 Ingolstadt leads in that match.
  • This is 3rd v 17th in the German Bundesliga.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.

Dortmund other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 18 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 8/11 at home.

Ingolstadt 100% stats

  • No draw away v top 15 away.
  • Lost to top 5 away.
  • No 0-0.

Ingolstadt other stats

  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in each of the last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 3 wins v top 15 sides home and away.
  • 8 goals conceded last 15 minutes away.

Conclusions

  • I could really do with a 2-0 and 3-1 Ingolstadt lead as per last head to head. We'll have a great trading day!
  • As things stand, Ingolstadt are clearly fighting for their life, their 2-2 away at the Hoff was eye-catching.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I would lay any late draw while Ingolstadt keep avoiding draws away.
  • Expectation for one team at least to score 2 goals today.

19:45 - Lille v Marseille - 2.84 both teams

  • I would ordinarily leave a match where both teams are 2.84 favourites. I will research to see if there are any angles.
  • 4 Marseille wins and a draw in the last 5 head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 5th in French Ligue 1 and I would have naturally expected a top 5 team to have been favourite.

Lille 100% stats

  • Lost to all top 6 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 team at home.
  • Conceded in all of those matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Lille other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 11 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only conceded in one home match and only failed to score in one home match.

Marseille 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 16 team away from home.
  • Not won to nil away.

Marseille other stats

  • 3 defeats in their last 4 aways.
  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • Marseille tend to win head to heads but this season have a dire away record, hence the odds I suppose!
  • Lille have not beaten a top 12 team at home and Marseille have not beaten a top 16 team away.
  • Both teams could score.
  • As the market suggested, I cannot choose between the teams and can make a strong argument for opposing either side.

19:45 - Bristol City v Huddersfield - 2.38 Huddersfield

  • 2-1 Huddersfield in the last head to head.
  • This is 22nd v 3rd in the Championship and the odds are strange here given the positions.

Bristol City 100% stats

  • A win really helps in the battle to avoid relegation.
  • Not beaten a top 3 team in 4 attempts.

Bristol City other stats

  • 6 clean sheets only.
  • Only 2 wins in 18 matches were 1-0.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 match at home v top 14 teams.
  • 18 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Huddersfield 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away v 14th and lower.
  • All 9 away wins were by a single goal.
  • No 0-0.

Huddersfield other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 18 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Last 3 wins were 1-0 and note 4 of their wins away v 14th and lower were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 wins in 18 for Bristol City. Probability wise they are unlikely to win today so note that if they lead (albeit the 2 wins were 1-0!!).
  • Huddersfield are unbeaten and in fact have only one loss home and away in 17 matches v teams 14th and lower. I would not be surprised by a Huddersfield 0-1 win.
  • I would be surprised if this ended 0-0 so note that if 0-0 late on.

19:45 - Sheff Wed v Reading - 1.81 Sheff Wed

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Reading in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 5th in the English Championship so prepare for a tight match. When these top teams meet, they can cancel each other out as happened with Reading v Newcastle 0-0 recently.

Sheff Wed 100% stats

  • No draw v top 5.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Sheff Wed other stats

  • Only 1 win in 5.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 11 goals scored last 15 minutes at home.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Reading 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 10 away.
  • No 0-0 away.

Reading other stats

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only scored one goal away v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

  • Reading's away form v top 10 is dire and they even have trouble scoring. Sheff Wed though have been on a sticky patch and have lost to 2nd and 4th at home.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay Reading if Reading score first based on their away form. I acknowledge the above, that Wed have 2 defeats v top 4 at home. BUT they have only 4 home defeats.

19:45 - Las Palmas v Villareal - 2.78 Las Palmas

  • 2-1 Villareal in the last head to head, a penalty and 90th minute goal made for a pretty unconvincing win.
  • This is 12th v 5th in Spanish La Liga.
  • Caveat - note the odds. 2.78. Tells us this may be a tough match in which to split the teams.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • No home match with 3 goals exactly.

Las Palmas other stats

  • 3-2-3 scored in their last 3 matches. 2-3-4 conceded in those matches!
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home and last 10 overall.
  • 18 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Villareal 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.
  • Not conceded first half away.

Villareal other stats

  • 4 wins in 5 matches, the only loss was v Real Madrid.
  • 6 clean sheets last 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Clean sheets away v 9th - 17th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • What is with the odds today? If Villareal play to their form, Las Palmas will have trouble scoring. Solid recent form for Villareal saw only Real Madrid beat them. Villareal's odds were strange last match and I sided with them and they won.
  • Yes, Las Palmas are scoring 2+ goals, but equally conceding 2-4 matches in their last 3 matches.
  • Las Palmas are likely to score 2nd half if Villareal continue to keep clean sheets in the first half.
  • A strange betting market which cannot split the teams but on form, IF Villareal's defence is as solid as the form, they are the team I will be with today.