Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

If I am online, I will tweet @drtclub but there are a lot of weekend matches to research.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Dijon v Bordeaux - 2.46 Bordeaux

  • 3-2 Bordeaux and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Dijon (12th)

  • 4 wins in the last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins with 2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home draw.
  • 2 wins only v top 10 came at home v 5th and 7th.

Bordeaux (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches. All defeats this season came within those 8 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats. 3 consecutive away 1-0 defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • All wins this season have come v teams below them in the league.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came first half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 matches away.

Conclusions

  • Recent Bordeaux defeats away need a context. They have all come v teams above Bordeaux in the league. Bordeaux exclusively do their winning v teams below them in the league and that is where Dijon are.
  • Dijon themselves have 3 consecutive home wins, and 2 wins v 5th and 7th in the league.
  • On the basis that I can make a cogent argument for either side, I will let this one go. Yet again the market proves itself accurate. 2.46 odds tells us that this could go either way.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:30 - Roma v Spal - 1.22 Roma

  • This is another pre-Champions League weekend.

Roma (4th)

  • 5 wins in their last 6 at home.
  • Only losses v big guns Napoli and Inter Milan.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Have scored and conceded last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 and 4 goals scored v 2 of the bottom 3.
  • 8 goals scored first half at home and only 1 conceded.

SPAL

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Not beaten a top 13 team.
  • In 5 of 6 away matches v top 9, SPAL conceded 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Opponents tend to score first and lead at halftime in Spal away matches.
  • Roma should win even if SPAL score, and Spal have scored and conceded in recent matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. As I say, Roma should be scoring before halftime.

19:45 - Napoli v Juventus - 2.16 Napoli

  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads and Napoli are unbeaten in the last 2, albeit one was a cup match.
  • Both sides have a Champions League match upcoming.
  • 2 top 3 teams. With these top 3 clashes, there is a threat that these 2 could cancel each other out.

Napoli

  • Unbeaten.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 0-0 at home v 2nd in the league.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home and led at halftime in 4/6 at home.

Juventus

  • 2 defeats. Lost their last away match 3-2 v Sampdoria pre Champions League.
  • Loss v Lazio was, again, pre-Champions League.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches and last 6 away matches.
  • Not played the top 4, but perhaps significantly, lost to 2 top 6 teams and pre-Champions League.

Conclusions

  • One thing is clear. Juventus are prioritising the Champions League, largely because this is likely to be keeper Buffon's last season and he wants to win the competition.
  • This has played out in 2 losses v top 6 pre-Champions League.
  • And although a top 3 clash is generally wide open, I feel Juventus are vulnerable today. They have scored in every match and if scoring first, I think can be layed given that woeful pre-Champions League record.
  • Napoli, for their part, recorded a 0-0 and 0-1 win v top 5 teams so are adept at engineering a result. They are in the same boat as Juve, pre Champions League but seem unaffected.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Freiburg v Hamburg - 2.5 Freiburg

  • 0-0 and 1-0 Freiburg in the last 2 head to heads at Freiburg.

Freiburg (16th)

  • Only 2 wins includes a home win last match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Actually only lost one home match.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 3rd at home.
  • 5 of 7 goals at home came 2nd half.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hamburg (15th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • 5 consecutive away losses.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2 goals away in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Draw 0-0 at home v 17th and 1-3 win v 18th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • 2 strugglers this season but Freiburg have only lost one home match. Is that an angle in?
  • Hamburg have, after all, conceded 2 goals away in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Note the 2nd half goals in Freiburg matches if the match is 0-0 at halftime.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Zwolle v Utrecht - 2.46 Zwolle

  • Utrecht 1-2 and 3-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Zwolle (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats came v Ajax and PSV.
  • 5 consecutive home wins came  to an end at home v PSV.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only losses v top 2.

Utrecht

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches and last 6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Did beat Ajax away but lost at home v 1st and away v 3rd.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Malaga v Levante - 1.84 Malaga

  • Last head to head in May 2016.

Malaga (18th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins having to score 2+ goals as they conceded in wins.
  • Conceded in every match.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored in only 5 matches this season.
  • No 0-0.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Levante (14th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Lost only 1 away match.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away. 3 0-0's.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Will Malaga concede again?
  • I think both teams could score today. Quite a few score draws (2+ goals).
  • I would back 2-2 pre match from a trading perspective.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Cardiff v Norwich - 2 Cardiff

  • 3-2 Norwich and 0-1 Cardiff in the last 2 head to heads.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • Having a good season.
  • All 3 defeats came away from home.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Only 1 loss at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 home matches.
  • Scored 9 first half goals.
  • Led at halftime in 6 home matches.

Norwich (15th)

  • No win in 6.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • No draw in 8 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Beaten 3rd, 7th and 9th away 0-1 so have something to them.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • If Cardiff score 2 goals that will be enough.
  • Lay any late draw as Norwich tend to avoid the draw away.
  • Norwich have some 0-1 ins v top 10 teams away so that must be noted.
  • Norwich cannot be readily discounted.

19:45 - Leeds v Aston Villa - 2.78 Leeds

  • A match from a competitive league with a favourite at 2.78 odds. I should leave it alone but on a quiet Friday I will research.
  • 1-1 in the last head to head.

Leeds (8th)

  • 8 defeats in their last 12 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 2 1-2 defeats at home came v top 6.
  • Scored in all matches v top 10.
  • 3 2-1 results v top 7 at home.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 9 of 14 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Aston Villa (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 of which came away.
  • Only lost one away match at halftime.
  • 2 away defeats v top 2.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why the market is not more emphatic towards Aston Villa. There must be a reason.
  • I would have to favour Villa on form. 2 defeats away did come v the top 2 so no immediate shock there.
  • I note Leeds' habit for 2-1 scorelines at home v top 7. This suggests laying leeds if Leeds score first. And they may do. They have scored 9 first half goals at home.
  • Leeds have scored in ALL matches v top 10 and conceded last 5 so that 2-1 spectre may appear. Back 2-1/1-2 pre match?

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Den Bosch v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.98 Den Bosch

Den Bosch (6th)

  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came last match.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only loss at home v 15th.
  • Scored first in all 7 home matches.

Go Ahead Eagles (14th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away.
  • Conceded 6 goals away in the last 15 minutes.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • Solid home side form. Go Ahead have yet to beat top 8 away so I would side with Den Bosch not to lose.
  • Both teams could score in a typical dutch match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market Either side tends to score first so that is up in the air. I would lay Go Ahead if they scored first.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Helmond Sport - 1.82 Waalwijk

  • 1-1 and 5-2 Waalwijk in the last 2 head to heads.

Waalwijk (16th)

  • Only 3 wins this season came at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only played 2 teams below them in the league - score draws.

Helmond (18th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 7 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten away in 3 matches v 15th and lower.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams have scored in recent matches. Will that continue? Helmond, if they score, are highly likely to score 2nd half so lay any 0-0 halftime.
  • Not a match which immediately grabs me. I tend to only research this league with both teams to score/over 2.5 goals/ halftime goal in mind.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.57 De Graaf

  • No head to heads.

De Graaf (5th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 and last 7 at home.
  • No draw at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten v 13th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Jong AZ (15th)

  • Only one draw was a 2-2.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Both teams have scored in 11 of the last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 15 minutes.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Wins away v 6th and 7th.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams are highly likely to score in a Jong AZ match.
  • Jong may have trouble today as they keep conceding 2 goals in recent matches.
  • I would lay Jong AZ if Jong AZ score first.
  • In the expectation for goals I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Volendam v Almere City - 2 Volendam

  • 2-2, 1-1, 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.

Volendam (19th)

  • Only 2 wins came within the last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 losses in 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Only 1 win v top 14 teams.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Almere City (10th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3-2-4-3 goals scored in their last 4 matches and conceded 2-2-2-2 in those goals too!
  • No clean sheets.
  • 3-2-1-2-3-4-2-2 goals scored away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 v teams 15th and lower (only one of those was away).
  • 13 of 19 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Opponents have scored first in all aways.
  • Opponents have led away at halftime in 7/8 matches.

Conclusions

  • This should be a goal fest.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Almere are highly likely to concede first and if they do, even 2-0 down, I would lay Volendam given Almere have scored 3-2-4-3 goals recently.
  • Almere should be favoured not to lose today. Solid results v 15th and lower and Volendam have just the one home win.

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v Dordrecht - 1.34 NEC

  • No recent head to heads.

NEC (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 7 wins and a 1-1 at home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 matches so wins require 2 goals at least.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 10 matches and last 2 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • All wins at home v 9th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home and led at halftime at home in 6/8.

Dordrecht (13th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3 defeats away v top 4, conceding 5-3-3 goals.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • We may not see a trade here. NEC are statistically likely to score first. They have scored and conceded so will require 2 goals at least if they are to add to their 2 consecutive wins.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given goals are expected.
  • On form, NEC score 3+ goals today and as I say may concede.

19:00 - Cambuur v Telstar - 1.76 Cambuur

  • 4-3-5 goals scored by Cambuur in recent head to heads.

Cambuur (17th)

  • Only 3 wins yet favourite? Makes no sense to me.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win v top 12.

Telstar

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 7 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away and no 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only away wins v 18th and 19th.
  • Did lose away to 16th.

Conclusions

  • I had to do a double take at the market. A 1.76 favourite with only 3 wins against an away side with only 3 defeats?
  • On this season's form, we are with Telstar here who are likely to score and concede.
  • The market has been seduced by the head to heads which see Cambuur score 12 goals in 3 matches v Telstar.
  • Which side do you fall on? Head to heads or recent form? Only 1 win in 10 matches for Cambuur! That is not the form of a 1.76 shot!

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v FC Oss - 1.57 FC Eindhoven

  • 6-2 and 1-2 Oss in the last 2 head to heads.

FC Eindhoven (9th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins v 12th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Oss

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • All wins v 13th and lower.
  • 4 score draws in 7 matches v 10th and higher.
  • All 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • FC Oss could readily score first today. They have conceded all away goals in the 2nd half. We have 3 wins in 4 versus 3 losses in 4 so I would tend towards laying FC Oss if FC Oss scored first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Strong concession rate for both sides 2nd half

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Jong Ajax - 2.12 Jong Ajax

  • 1-0 MVV and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

MVV (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of the last 10 matches, what I like to look for in this league.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Lost at home only v 2nd.
  • 4 goals scored at home first 15 mins and 5 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Jong Ajax (3rd)

  • 4 losses in 6 matches were the only defeats this season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches and 8 away.
  • No draw in 9 matches and in 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored first in 7/8 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is the starting point here.
  • Ajax are in dodgy form at present with all defeats coming in a recent set of matches.
  • We should expect 3+ goals today in total.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.