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A motley crew of football matches today. I would be interested in the women's UEFA matches. Sweden play at home and German ladies are a dominant force so anything other than wins for those 2 would be shocks. Dinamo Zagreb has still only lost 2 matches at home in the league since August 2010 so are well worth monitoring. Derry seem to beat Bohs each time they meet so that would be my Irish match of interest.
In the tennis, Bertens, Parmentier, Sevastova, Goffin, would be key matches to focus on from a trading perspective. Yes I research all matches, and maybe I shouldn't because it might give you the wrong impression. I do not trade all tennis matches I research. I research matches to find the matches to trade!!

17:00 - Sweden women v Russia women - 1.19 Sweden women

  • This is the UEFA Women's Championship.
  • 4-0 Sweden women in a 2017 head to head. Sweden has not won in 2 UEFA matches - 2-0 Denmark and 0-0 v Germany.
  • I like the recent head to head. The 4-0 scoreline is in line with today's quote. Expect a Swedish ladies win today.

17:30 - Anzhi Makhachkala v Amkar - 2.36 Anzhi

  • This is the Russian Premier League. It is a new season.
  • Amkar, Amkar, Anzhi in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Both sides lost their opening match.
  • Last year, Anzhi finished 12th in the league. Only 3 wins at home last year for Anzhi saw a win v Amkar.
  • Amkar finished 10th last season.They only won 1 match away from home.
  • This is another match for the in-play stats. These are 2 bottom half teams with questionable home form (Anzhi) and away form (Amkar).
  • This will be a good league to follow.

17:30 - CSKA Moscow v Lokomotiv - 1.69 CSKA Moscow

  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 Lokomotiv, 4-0 CSKA in the last 4 head to heads. This is a derby of sorts in the Russian Premier League.
  • Little to excite early on in this Russian season. I think I would lay CSKA if CSKA scored first given the derby nature of this match and the 2 1-1 results recently. Yes 4-0 last time these 2 met but this is only the 2nd match this season.

18:00 - AGF v Hobro - 1.79 AGF

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 scorelines in head to heads.
  • This is the 2nd match in the Danish Super Liga so there is little to get our teeth into form wise.
  • In play stats it is, with a bias I suppose to seeing that 1-1 sequence of head to heads end. Lay the late 1-1!

19:00 - Dinamo Zagreb v Cibalia - 1.11 Dinamo Zagreb

  • The season has just begun in Croatia and this is a rather simplistic match to evaluate.
  • Only 2 losses at home in the league since August 2010 puts us firmly with the market here.
  • Expectation is for 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil for Dinamo Zagreb.

19:45 - Bohemians v Derry - 2.22 Derry

  • 6 consecutive wins for Derry in head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 5th in the Irish Premier Division.

Bohemians

  • No draw v top 9 teams.
  • 2 consecutive losses to Derry already this season.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 match at home v teams above them in the league.

Derry City

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only lost 2 matches home and away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Unless I am missing something, Derry should not be losing this match today and that is my ready angle.
  • They love playing Bohs and are solid v teams below them in the league. Derry could score 2 goals again.

19:45 - Germany women v Italy women - 1.14 Germany women

  • No recent head to heads.
  • 0-0 Germany v Sweden in the last match in this UEFA championship.
  • Germany's strength is clean sheets. We may see a win to nil today. Given the 1.14 odds quote, I would begin with 3-0, 4-0, 4-1.

19:45 - Ross County v Hibernians - 2.66 Hibernian

  • 2 Premiership teams meet in this Scottish League Cup.
  • The market cannot split the teams.
  • 1-2 Ross County from the most recent head to head.
  • Both sides tend to avoid the draw in the League Cup so lay any late draw.
  • Other than that it is very difficult to get an angle into this match.

20:00 - St Patricks v Bray - 2.42 St Pats

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.

St Patricks

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.

Bray

  • No draw in 6 saw 4 defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Unbeaten in 6 matches v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Expect at least 2 goals in total.
  • Lay any late 0-0 therefore.
  • I would expect on form that Bray would not lose here. Yes poor recent form but v bottom 3 sides Bray are unbeaten.
  • I would maintain that position throughout this match. Bray not to lose.

19:45 - Galway Utd v Drogheda - 1.7 Galway United

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division.

Galway United

  • Only 3 home losses.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 at home.
  • 0-1 loss and 2-2 draw so far this season v Drogs.
  • Only 1 win in 8 came last home match, 3-1 v Limerick.
  • Scored and conceded 9 of last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not won to nil at home.

Drogheda

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • More competitive away v teams 7th and lower with only 1 loss in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 clean sheet for Galway but they play a Drogheda side which has failed to score in 8 of 10 matches.
  • Galway has not won to nil at home.
  • A match of very mixed messages and one I will leave alone, albeit defer to the in-play stats.

TENNIS

Yesterday was a very quiet day. Karen Khachanov, Larsson and our good ole pal Gael Monfils did deliver. I do though prefer the multiple regular matches which comes with pre-Grand Slam warm up events and Grand Slams themselves.

WTA Gstaad

Sara Sorribes Tormo v Tamara Korpatsch - 1.86 Sara

  • 82nd v 140th.
  • Sara won 6-1 6-1 in 2016. That is not quite reflected in today's odds.
  • These 2 look well matched. Both reached the quarters of a 100K event before this event and both have a 2 set and 3 set win so far here in Gstaad.
  • Not a match for me to focus on.

Johanna Larsson v Kiki Bertens - 1.42 Kiki

  • 53rd v 20th.
  • Larsson won last year in a head to head.
  • Larsson came from a set down at odds of 1.18 yesterday to win. Bertens was 1.13 odds and won 2-0 as she liked.
  • I said yesterday that Beefy is solid on clay, and had a poor grass court season. She is back on clay now and must be favoured, particularly if losing the first set. I would be keen on backing Beefy at 1.8+ odds.

Tereza Martincova v Antonia Lottner - 1.94 Lottner

  • 150th v 180th and immediately the rankings put me off.
  • Lottner has 2 consecutive 3 setters now since going through qualifying to get here. That could provide an angle in if Lottner wins the first set - expect a 3 setter?
  • Tereza beat Caroline Garcia which is one big scalp. I am, though, wary of such form as these big names may be attracted by an appearance fee to play in these events (I call it the Thiem-Antalya effect).
  • If that is form indicative of Tereza on her A game though, it will strengthen the case to lay Lottner if Lottner wins the first set.

Anett Kontaveit v Carina Witthoeft - 1.33 Kontaveit

  • 73rd v 69th so the rankings are tighter than the odds might suggest.
  • On grass 2017 Anett won 6-3 6-1 head to head.
  • Anett won the 's-Hertogenbosch tournament this year, beating Carina along the way.
  • Anett took a set off Wozza which is a good yardstick, again alas on grass.
  • Anett looks as though she loves the clay.Quarters in Rome, losing to Muguruza French Open and Quarters here.
  • Witthoeft does not have as solid a look to her clay court form. She won in 2 sets (tie breaker) and 3 sets to get here. Anett also won in 3 sets yesterday.
  • I would favour Anett and hope Carina wins first set.

WTA Bucharest

Tatjana Maria v Carla Suárez Navarro - 1.35 Navarro

  • 103rd v 25th.
  • Clay court.
  • No head to heads.
  • Maria's last opponent here, retired.
  • Maria has good clay court momentum, albeit at a lower level than her opponent plays at.
  • 2 consecutive Challenger finals for Maria.
  • The last 8 matches Carla has been 1.5 or lower odds on clay, she has won, so the market does tend to get it right.
  • Halep and Stosur are the last 2 players to have beaten Carla on Clay. I would suggest Maria is not quite at that level.
  • I would be with Carla today. She is fragile mentally but deserves the odds.

Irina-Camelia Begu v Pauline Parmentier - 1.72 Begu

  • 33rd v 64th.
  • Head to heads from 2011 and 2014.
  • 2 3 setters here at Bucharest for Parmentier suggests laying Parm if she wins the first set.

Anastasija Sevastova v Ana Bogdan - 1.27 Seva

  • 26th v 112th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Winner on grass in Mallorca, Sevastova was stopped by Heather at Wimbledon.
  • Tends to be reliable on clay.
  • Nothing in Bogdan's form to suggest an upset.

Julia Goerges v Alexandra Dulgheru - 1.53 Julia

  • 45th v 597th - is Dulgheru coming back from injury? Normally such a high ranking would not see a top 50 player 1.53 odds.
  • Dulgheru is a Romanian at home so that might be a factor.
  • At her level (25k and 100k events) on clay, Alex has a final win, semi final, quarter final and here at Bucharest she has already gone through qualifying.
  • She dropped a set last match.
  • Goerges tends to play at a higher level. On clay, she has had to battle last 3 matches, 2 3 setters and a tiebreaker 2 set win.
  • I would be keen to back Julia around evens. I would not be surprised to see the Romanian Alex play above her ranking today given home support and apparent efficiency on clay.

ATP UMAG

David Goffin v Ivan Dodig - 1.13 Goffin

  • Goffin the marquee player here in Croatia.
  • 10th v 253rd.
  • Dodig is a Croatian in Croatia so note that! He may play above his ranking.
  • A rare lapse yesterday for the Goff saw him losing the first set and winning the next 2.
  • The Goff did retire at the French Open and we saw with Busta the other day, retirements can mask injury concerns.
  • No grass court tennis for Goff so he has been purely on clay and it has taken one of the big boys consistently to halt him on clay.
  • Already for Dodig v 110th and 157th, he has had a 2 setter (1 tie breaker) and a 3 setter. So a world top 10 should not be losing 2-0 to someone with that record.
  • The only niggle today is Dodig getting a boost from home support and the Goff having a possible injury although to be fair he has taken a long break since the French Open.
  • All things being equal, this is the Goffs in 2 sets. React of Dodig wins first set.

Alessandro Giannessi v Rogerio Dutra Silva - 1.64 Silva

  • 121st v 69th.
  • Giannessi has won the 2 most recent head to heads on clay.
  • Silva beat Monfils in the opener. Giannessi has won his 2 matches in 3 setters. I will lay Giannessi if Giannessi wins the first set based on the expectation for another 3 setter.

Jiri Vesely v Paolo Lorenzi - 1.63 Jiri

  • 58th v 38th.
  • Vesely has won the 3 head to heads, the 2 'first to 2 sets' matches were 3 set affairs. Jiri was 1.61 last head to head and won in 3 sets.
  • I do like Lorenzi's immediate form. 2 4 setters at Wimbledon replete with tie breakers and then beating Bedene suggests he could give Jiri a game.
  • The value may be in laying the first set winner today.

Fabio Fognini v Andrey Rublev - 1.34 Foggy

  • 29th v 117th.
  • 2 3 setter head to head Foggy wins.
  • Foggy on his day on clay can beat the best - he beat Murray in Rome. When he meets the best on clay, he normally loses.
  • Rublev had 4-5-5 setters at Wimbledon so when he puts his mind to it, he can stick in there.
  • I think Foggy might be layable here at 1.34 at the off (lower odds if he wins first set). Rublev will not be lying down here.