Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Watch out for both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the Dutch Eerste Divisie from 19:00 onwards. I wrote in the DRT e-letter today about possible accumulators you can 'cash out' in play.

20:00 - West Ham v Brighton - 1.86 West Ham

West Ham

  • After a dire start to the season, West Ham are back on track albeit slowly, with 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 matches.
  • 2-0 and 1-0 wins at home, one v a newly promoted side, augurs well for this match.
  • Bar the Tottenham win, West Ham seem to have a new defensive strength. Ignoring the Spurs match, in their last 4 they have conceded 0-0-0-1 goals.
  • All 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Brighton

  • Brighton seem to be feeling it now.
  • 2 home wins and a draw at home suggests at home they will be accumulating points.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored away in 3 defeats and a draw.

Conclusions

  • I would have to be with the Hamsters today at home. They seem to have strengthened defensively and Brighton could find another barren away day. If Brighton score first, lay them, as they have yet to find that 2nd goal away from home. They have only scored more than 1 goal a match once.
  • Do not West Ham tend to score 2nd half at home. Note that if they are losing or drawing 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - St Etienne v Montpellier - 2.2 St Etienne

  • St Etienne tend to win home head to heads.

St Etienne

  • Only 2 defeats came away v PSG and Troyes. Everyone is losing to PSG so no surprises there.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 2 score draws and a win last 3 at home.
  • Failed to score only against PSG.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Montpellier

  • Tighter than a gnat's chuff (for you Viz fans) in defence, Montpellier have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches including keeping the mighty PSG to 0-0.
  • Montpellier have scored 2 goals only once, last match a home win 2-0 v Nice.
  • 0-1-1-1 scored away.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match.

Conclusions

  • Montpellier are tough to get a handle on. They look defensively sound but still despite that, have 2 defeats, a 1-1 and a 0-1 win away.
  • St Etienne could go 2nd with a win today and look solid this season. They are scoring first half goals now.
  • I would tentatively side with St Etienne and lay Montpellier if Mont scored first. Mont have only managed 2 goals in a game once.
  • On early season form, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:30 - Schalke v Mainz - 1.83 Schalke

  • 3 Schalke wins in 4 head to heads.

Schalke

  • Only 2 clean sheets came 1st and last match.
  • Only 1 home loss v Bayern Munich, 2 wins and a draw otherwise.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Mainz

  • 3 wins came at home.
  • 1-0, 4-0, 1-1 away. Have lost to the same 3 teams as Schalke (additionally Stuttgart).
  • Wins have come at home in a cluster of teams currently 12th-15th.

Conclusions

  • Not enough matches in my mind to be ultra confident with conclusions. Both sides have lost to the same teams which suggests similarities in level of form.
  • I cannot be confident about any angles so leave this to inplay stats and a nod towards Schalke.

19:00 - Groningen v Willem II - 2.02 Groningen

  • 2-1 Gron, 1-1, 2-1 Willem, 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.

Groningen

  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • Unbeaten at home with 3 score draws and 2 wins. Scored and conceded in all bar 1.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0.

Willem II

  • No draw.
  • All defeats bar 2 wins.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1 match.
  • Conceded in every match.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Wins have come v fellow bottom 3 sides.

Conclusions

  • On a strict reading of the form, Willem II excel in the lower reaches of the league but struggle anywhere else.
  • It seems that a score draw will be worst case scenario for Groningen today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as goals are expected. Willem are certainly expected to concede so watch that if 0-0 for a while.

19:00 - Almere City v Cambuur - 2.08 Cambuur

  • 4-1 Cambuur and 0-1 Cambuur in the last 2 head to heads.

Almere City

  • No clean sheets.
  • 7 over 2.5 goals matches in 9.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar their last match.
  • Scored and conceded in all at home.
  • 3-2-3 scored last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cambuur

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v 7th and lower - Almere are currently 14th.

Conclusions

  • 3 factors really to look for in the Dutch Juliper (Eerste) Divisie. 1) goal at least before halftime 2) over 2.5 goals 3 ) both teams to score.
  • Almere meet all 3 counts. Cambuur have only recently met count 3) but have sporadic over 2.5 goals.
  • Almere look your typical dutch side.

19:00 - Dordrecht v De Graafschap - 1.75 De Graafschap

  • 2-3 Dordrecht and 0-2 De Graafschap in the last 2 head to heads.

Dordrecht

  • 3 losses came away from home.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches bar the last one.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

De Graafschap

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 draws this season.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win away reflects Dordrecht at home.
  • 0-1-0-0 conceded away last 4 matches.
  • Not met a top 15 side away yet (Dordrecht are 10th).
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Dordrecht look like a Juliper league team, scoring and conceding.
  • Both teams have a strong 2nd half bias.
  • So if no goals at halftime, expect goals 2nd half.

19:00 - FC Oss v Den Bosch - 2.08 FC Oss

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 matches.
  • The home team has not lost recent head to heads.

FC Oss

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • 2-2-2-3-2-2 goals score halftime in recent matches.
  • No 0-0.

Den Bosch

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Losses away v 8th and 9th and play 7th today.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams tend to score in Oss matches and in head to heads - another signature of this league.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v FC Eindhoven - 1.94 Fortuna Sittard

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Eindhoven in the last 2 head to heads.

Fortuna Sittard

  • 2nd in the league.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 2 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 home wins ended with a 1-2 loss last home match.
  • Scored first in all home matches.

FC Eindhoven

  • 2 of 3 wins came away.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not beaten any top 10 team yet, scoring and conceding in 4 of 5 matches.
  • 6 of 8 away goals scored came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score today and Fortuna not to lose.
  • Fortuna tend to score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Fortuna matches are largely over 2.5 goals.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Jong Ajax - 2.02 Jong

Go Ahead Eagles

  • Only 2 losses but only 2 wins. A lot of draws. 4 of 5 of those were 1-1 draws.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.

Jong Ajax

  • Unbeaten.
  • All wins bar 2 1-1 draws (which came at home).
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored 2 goals + in 4 away matches.
  • Tend to score first and lead at halftime.

Conclusions

  • Jong Ajax are the type of team we'd relate to the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
  • Expect Jong to score 2 goals at least so lay Go ahead if Go Ahead scores first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • 1-1 may be in play for Go Ahead Eagles but I would lay a late draw and hope Jong score their 2 goals.

19:00 - Helmond Sport v Telstar - 2 Helmond Sport

  • 4-2 Telstar and 3-4 Telstar in the last 2 head to heads.

Helmond

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 9 matches.
  • Only 1 win came last match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 home matches.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Telstar

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Both teams scored in the last 4 aways.
  • 2-2-1-4 goals scored away.
  • 2-2-1-3 conceded away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • This looks like an atypical match for the league.
  • Loads of goals Telstar, both teams scoring both side. Both teams scoring in 7 of Helmond's matches.
  • I will lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market on this basis.
  • I would back 2-2 here pre match as a trading angle if Telstar continue to score and concede 2 goals away

19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v Emmen - 2.4 Jong AZ

AZ

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Both teams scored in 4 at home.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1.

Emmen

  • Unbeaten but 6 draws.
  • Both teams scored in all 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • This looks another good match for the league - both teams to score is a good angle. Over 2.5 goals in all bar 1 AZ match.
  • Let's look to this and possibly (well logically) a goal at least before halftime. As to the winner? Emmen are drawing too many matches.
  • Is this another 2-2 as a trading angle match?

19:00 - Jong PSV v Waalwijk - 1.9 Jong PSV

  • PSV are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads.

Jong PSV

  • Both teams scored in 6 of 9 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came away from home.
  • 2-3-3-2 goals conceded at home.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Opponents have scored first and led at halftime in 3 of 4 home matches.

Waalwijk

  • No win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 5 draws in 7 matches.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 4 score draws in 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 in halftime away.

Conclusions

  • PSV like meeting Waalwijk and should be favoured again today given Waalwijk are yet to win this season.
  • PSV do concede heavily though at home.
  • I would lay Waalwijk if they scored first (and they could as opponents tend to score first and lead at halftime in Jong PSV matches at home).

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v MVV Maastricht - 1.82 MVV

  • 1-2 MVV and 4-1 MVV in the last 2 head to heads.

Jong Utrecht

  • Only 1 win.
  • 0-1-1-0- scored at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not lost at halftime at home but won only 1 home match.
  • All defeats home and away v the current top 10.

MVV

  • 3 consecutive defeats were the only defeats this season.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away.
  • All bar 1 away goal conceded 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strong 2nd half conceding from both sides so watch out if 0-0 at halftime.
  • No other strong angles for me.

19:00 - Volendam v NEC Nijmegen - 2.22 NEC

Volendam

  • No win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not met current top v (NEC are 3rd).
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.

NEC

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Draw, loss, draw, win away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

  • NEC meet bottom of the league today and should not lose. Do note that NEC are more vulnerable away from home though with only 1 win in 4 matches but still, draw worst case for me.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay Volendam if Volendam score first given their propensity for under 2.5 goals.