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The Atl Madrid match is my main match of the day. Atl Madrid look very readable. Arsenal v Liverpool will likely be a great spectacle but is tough to call. Will Liverpool really score 3 goals again?

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Arsenal v Liverpool - 2.54 Arsenal

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 5 head to heads and have scored 3-4-3-4 goals.
  • This is one of those matches which are too tough to call. I will list the basic stats.
  • Both sides struggle v the best. Arsenal have not beaten a top 4 side this season. Liverpool have that single home win v Arsenal as the only win v top 7 sides.
  • And that....is that! Will Liverpool continue to dominate these head to heads and score 3 goals again? We know, though, that Arsenal are far better at home than they are away.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Norwich v Brentford - 2.34 Norwich

  • 1-3 Norwich last head to head in the League Cup.

Norwich (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came last home match.
  • Unbeaten in 3 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • 5 0-1 losses at halftime at home.
  • All 3 wins at home came v 15th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Brentford (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Have conceded 2-2-0-2-2-3 goals in recent away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have a great scoring record away 9th and lower.
  • 3-2-1-2-2-3 goals scored away v 9th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/7 away.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With Norwich conceding in their last 6 home matches and Brentford consistently scoring 2+ goals away v 9th and lower, we could see Norwich concede up to 2 goals.
  • Brentford themselves concede 2+ goals recently in away matches.
  • I would consider backing 2-2 here pre match as a trading angle in the hope, largely, that Brentford continue their scoring and conceding of 2 goals away v 9th and lower.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Chievo v Bologna - 2.4 Chievo

  • 0-0, 1-1, 4-1 Bologna in the last 4 head to heads.

Chievo (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only led once at halftime home or away.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches outside the top 5.
  • Scored first in only 1/8 at home.

Bologna (12th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All away defeats v top 9 and all away wins v 15th and lower.
  • 5 scorelines away were 1-0 scorelines.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This is a messy match stats wise, Chievo are scoring and conceding outside of the top 5 but Bologna have 5 1-0 scorelines away. So what is it to be?
  • 0-0 at halftime is a possibility but not at fulltime (no draws away for Bologna).

19:45 - Cagliari v Fiorentina - 2.32 Fiorentina

  • 3 Fiorentina wins in 4 matches.

Cagliari (14th)

  • 2 score draws in 3 matches, the only score draws this season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 4 home matches was v Inter Milan.
  • No 0-0.
  • All 3 home wins v 16th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fiorentina (9th)

  • 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches but 2 consecutive 0-0's now.
  • Not beaten a top 16 team away.
  • Only 2 away wins v the bottom 2.
  • Only scored 1 goal max away v top 18.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I would look to take on any 0-0 here. Fiorentina are on 2 0-0's and it is difficult for this sequence to continue as you don't win matches with 0-0's.
  • Fiorentina cannot score that 2nd goal away and if that continues, Fiorentina must be layed if scoring first. Cagliari are on a score draw run and have scored and conceded in their last 5 at home so that matches this idea.
  • Only 3 home wins for Cagliari v 16th and lower matches Fiorentina's poor form of only 2 away wins v the  bottom 2.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - ADO Den Haag v Zwolle - 2.4 Zwolle

  • 5 consecutive Zwolle wins in head to heads.

ADO Den Haag (9th)

  • Only 2 draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 7 over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home and last 8  overall.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v top 13 teams.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 match at home.
  • Scored in 5/6 home matches v top 11.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents tend to score first at home.

Zwolle (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Only defeats came v top 2.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8/10 matches v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why the market is so non-commital. ADO have not beaten any team above them in the league and have conceded in all bar 1 match at home.
  • Zwolle have only lost to the top 2 so I would expect a positive performance. Zwolle tend to score 2 goals as weel v 8th and lower so I would lay ADO if ADO scored first.

18:30 - Betis v Athletic Bilbao - 2.58 Ath Bilbao

  • Ath have won 2 of the last 3 head to heads.

Betis (12th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals and unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 14 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ath Bilbao(14th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 with 4 draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, for me Betis look good v teams 8th and lower at home. IF they continue to score 2 goals at home v 8th and lower, then that could be sufficient for them NOT to lose.
  • Both teams could score today and I would lay Bilbao if Bilbao scored first given their draw sequence.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:30 - Espanyol v Atletico Madrid - 1.8 Atl Madrid

  • 0-0 and 0-1 Atl Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.

Espanyol (16th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches were 1-0 and came at home.
  • 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 team.
  • 0-1-0-0-1 goals scored at home v 12th and higher.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 10 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All wins v 12th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Espanyol if they cannot score that 2nd goal, will struggle today. I would lay Espanyol if they scored first.
  • Atl Madrid have an air of solidity about them. I do expect them to remain unbeaten. If 0-0 at halftime I would keep faith in Atl Madrid to score.