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Arsenal were the epitome of the 'tolerable loss' weren't they last night? The joys of a huge first leg lead.

On to today and the first 3 matches see favourites at odds of 2.4 and higher. This suggests a tough coupon today. I have done a shortlist at DRT Facebook as there seems to be some workable angles. There are a few contenders too for goals before halftime. No surprises that these spring from the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Hull v Sheff Utd - 2.68 Sheff Utd

  • 4-1 Sheff Utd in the last head to head

Hull (21st)

  • only 2 wins in 19 matches
  • 4 consecutive home draws
  • no defeat in 5 at home
  • not beaten a top 9 team
  • potential for goal fests v top 10 at home. 2-3, 0-0, 2-2, 2-3, 1-3, 1-2, 3-2

Sheffield Utd (7th)

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home
  • conceded in their last 11 away matches
  • no 0-0 away
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime away
  • all away wins came v 11th and lower.
  • 12 of 19 goals scored away came 1st half

Conclusions

  • It is typical of a competitive league than a side 21st cannot be discounted against a top 7 side.
  • This may be down to the fact that Hull v the top 10 tend to really go for it, albeit they are consistently conceding 2 or 3 goals but on 4 occasions scored 2 goals or more and scored in 6 of the 7 matches v top 10
  • This is the one element that I will take into this match. The potential for Hull to score 1, possibly 2 goals and still not win.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on an expectation for goals.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Strasbourg v Montpellier - 2.66 Montpellier

  • the 2nd consecutive match with a favourite at odds of 2.66 and higher! And there's a 3rd below with Mainz. It makes for a tough coupon .
  • 2-1 Montpellier and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads

Strasbourg (14th)

  • 6 defeats in 8 matches
  • only 3 clean sheets
  • no draw in 11 matches
  • conceded in their last 9 and last 6 at home
  • only 1 0-0 at home
  • bar shock home wins v 1st and 8th, Strasbourg do tend to collect their home wins v 13th and lower
  • 1-3-2-2 conceded at home v top 7

Montpellier (6th)

  • only 3 defeats since 16th September , yet not strong favourite?
  • only scored 2 goals once away - perhaps that is the reason for the luke warm market ?
  • Only 3 away defeats suggests 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 as most likely scorelines if the higher ranked side remains unbeaten

Conclusions

  • I find the market odd here. Why a reluctance to put forward a side with only 3 defeats since September 2017 as strong favourite?
  • Certainly Montpellier's away form has suffered from an inability to score that 2nd goal so if scoring today first, they may be layable on that count and against a Strasbourg who have shocked the best at home but tend to win v 13th and lower.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Mainz v Wolfsburg - 2.44 Mainz

  • the 3rd consecutive match with a favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher. It makes for a frightening Friday
  • 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads

Mainz (16th)

  • only 3 wins since 20th October 2017
  • only 3 clean sheets all season will be music to the Wolf's ears, what with their score drawing
  • at least one team has scored 2+ goals in each of the last 11 matches
  • no 0-0
  • all wins this season have come v 11th and lower.
  • Home wins v 11th, 13th, 17th and 18th so Mainz will be feeling hopeful of a positive result

Wolfsburg (14th)

  • only 1 win in 9 matches
  • failed to score in only 5 matches
  • 12 draws this season sees a team with only 7 defeats in 14th place
  • away from home, a very defined pattern. unbeaten v top 7, losses v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • on a very strict reading of the form, Mainz could come out of here with a win or draw today as they tend to win exclusively against teams 11th and lower.
  • Wolfsburg are there, though, largely down to 12 draws this season . The Wolf tend to lose away v 8th and lower. Mainz tend to win at home v 11th and lower.
  • Will the form be upheld? Do remember the Wolf's draw itis if Mainz are leading 1-0 , or indeed if the Wolf are leading 0-1 late on. They have an amazing habit for concucting a draw from a winning position.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Groningen v NAC Breda - 1.92 Groningen

  • 2-1 Breda last head to head
  • Groningen have won 10/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while NAC Breda have lost 7/12 away matches.
  • NAC Breda have conceded first in 7/12 away matches.

Groningen (13th)

  • 3 losses in 11 matches saw 6 draws
  • only 4 clean sheets
  • only 1 0-0 at home
  • 0-1 loss v 14th at home but beat 16th 1-0 and 18th 4-0
  • 15 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half

NAC Breda (15th)

  • only 3 clean sheets
  • no win in 9 away
  • only 1 away win v Feyenoord
  • not scored that 2nd away goal v 6th and lower

Conclusions

  • NAC Breda look layable if scoring first.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

20:00 - Deportivo v Espanyol - 2.56 Deportivo

  • and another! Another favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher.
  • 1-2 and 4-1 Espanyol in the last 2 head to heads

Deportivo (19th)

  • 10 defeats in 14 matches
  • only 3 clean sheets
  • failed to score in their last 3 matches
  • no win in 9 matches
  • conceded in their last 9 matches
  • no home 0-0
  • interestingly unbeaten at home v 13th and lower  - 2 1-0 wins and 2 2-2 draws
  • opponents have scored first in 9/12 home matches

Espanyol (16th)

  • 3 consecutive score draws includes home draws v Barcelona and Villareal
  • 2-2, 0-1, 3-2 and 2-2 in the last 4 head to heads
  • scored and conceded last 4 matches
  • only 1 0-0 away
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime away
  • like Depor, Espanyol are unbeaten v teams below them in the league and away..... 2-2 and 0-1 ( same as Depor at home)

Conclusions

  • another imponderable with an argument for either side showing a 1-0 win or a 2-2 draw!
  • Both sides tend to perform well v fellow bottom sides so this could go any way. Were this at Espanyol, I would side with them given their rigid defence.
  • You speculators might want to go wholesale with the 1-0, 0-1, 2-2 correct scores and hope for a trading angle.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Den Bosch v Waalwijk -1.89 Den Bosch

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads

Den Bosch (10th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches were the only 2 wins in their last 9 - those 2 came at home
  • failed to score in only 3 matches
  • scored in their last 12 at home
  • no 0-0
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • v 14th and lower at home, 3-1 , 4-0, 1-3 loss, 3-0, 2-2, 1-0  - tend towards 2+ goals
  • scored first in 10/12 at home

RKC Waalwijk (18th)

  • 4 defeats in their last 5
  • only 2 wins in 11 came at home
  • no win in 12 away
  • not led at halftime away
  • 21 of 28 goals conceded away came 1st half
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Den Bosch tend towards 2+ goals v 14th and lower and on that basis RKC look layable if leading. And they may lead at halftime given the fact that if they do score, it tends to be a 1st half goal.

19:00 -De Graafschap v Helmond Sport - 1.4 De Graaf

  • 2 consecutive De Graaf 0-2 away wins in head to heads

De Graafschap (8th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches
  • failed to score in only 2 matches
  • scored in their last 19 and last 12 at home
  • scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches
  • no home 0-0
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower

Helmond Sport ( 19th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches
  • conceded in their last 6 away matches
  • only 2 away wins
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

  • Helmond highly likely to score 2nd half if they score at all.
  • De Graaf are in a good 2+ goal streak at the moment and that should be enough v a team with only 2 away wins
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market

19:00 -NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 NEC

  • 0-3 and 1-2 NEC in the last 2 head to heads

NEC Nijmegen (2nd)

  • 4 losses and 2 home wins in 6 matches
  • failed to score in only 3 matches
  • 3 consecutive home wins
  • no defeat in 13 home matches, scoring in all 13
  • unbeaten at home and at halftime at home.6 1-0 leads at halftime at home
  • only 2 goals conceded at home in the first half

Fortuna Sittard (3rd)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches
  • 3 consecutive away defeats
  • no draw in 10 away
  • conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

  • usually top 3 clashes will be a lot tighter. The market has gone with the home side here, largely due to the fact Fortuna conceded 2+ goals away in their last 5 matches away
  • NEC have the recent form to side with them. Fortuna have the recent defensive woes to get punished.
  • NEC are the likeliest first goal scorers. In Fortuna's current form, I would lay a Fortuna lead.

19:00 -Cambuur v Emmen - 2.68 Cambuur

  • 0-1 , 1-0 Cambuur and then 2-0 Emmen last 3 head to heads

Cambuur (12th)

  • only 3 defeats in the last 10 matches , 2 came away
  • only 5 clean sheets
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home
  • no 0-0 at home
  • v top 5, 5 defeats and a 1-0 win v 3rd at home

Emmen (4th)

  • 5 consecutive wins
  • only 1 loss in 13 matches
  • failed to score in only 3 matches
  • only 1 0-0 in 14 matches at halftime
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime away
  • unbeaten home and away v 14th and higher
  • 4 draws and a win away v top 11
  • 2-2 away v 8th, 2-2 away v 11th , 2-3 away v 14th and play 12th today

Conclusions

  • 2.68 the favourite tells us it's a toughie to call. I would have expected a top 4 side with only 1 loss in 13 matches ( Emmen) to be the clear favourite.
  • They are unbeaten home and away v 14th and higher, albeit a lot of draws.
  • The only reason for the odds could be the concession of 2 goals by Emmen away v 8th, 11th and 14th.
  • Strictly on form, Emmen should not lose . You might want to back 2-2 pre match and hope Emmen continue to concede.

19:00 -Telstar v Volendam - 2.3 Telstar

  • 3-4 Telstar in the last head to head

Telstar (6th)

  • only 1 loss in 9 matches
  • unbeaten in 9 at home
  • scored and conceded in their last 5 and in their last 4 at home
  • scored 2+ goals in their last 2 at home
  • only 2 0-0's at home
  • unbeaten at home v 7th and lower with 7 wins and 2 draws. Scored 2-4 goals in all bar 1 of those matches.
  • 71% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half

FC Volendam (14th)

  • 7 wins in 9 matches
  • only 4 clean sheets
  • no 0-0 away
  • not beaten a top 15 side away

Conclusions

  • FC Volendam are in good recent form but the fact remains they have not beaten a top 15 side away. So I will side with Telstar not to lose today. Telstar have scored and conceded recently so if Volendam score first, lay Volendam
  • lay any late 0-0

19:00 -Go Ahead Eagles v FC Oss - 1.92 Go Ahead

  • 5-0 and 1-6 Go Ahead eagles in the last 2 head to heads

Go Ahead Eagles (17th)

  • only 1 win in 14 matches
  • only 3 clean sheets
  • only 2 0-0's at home
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • very unreadable home form i.e.can beat 1st but 0-0's v bottom 3 at home

FC Oss (9th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches
  • no draw in 8 matches
  • 4 consecutive away defeats
  • conceded in their last 12 away
  • scored and conceded in 9/11 matches v teams 4th and lower away from home ( won only 3 of those matches)
  • 20 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

  • An angle? If FC Oss have not conceded by halftime, they are highly likely to concede 2nd half.
  • Other than that, I am put off by Go Ahead's unreadable home form. There are no patterns.
  • Both teams tend to score in  FC Oss away wins without FC Oss necessarily winning

19:00 -FC Eindhoven v Dordrecht - 2.14 FC Eindhoven

  • both teams have scored in the last 8 head to heads
  • Eindhoven are unbeaten in the last 3 home head to heads

FC Eindhoven (15th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches
  • 15 over 2.5 goals matches in the last 16 matches
  • 5 home wins in 7
  • 4-2-4-3-4-1-4 goals total before halftime in recent matches
  • scored and conceded in their last 8 at home
  • no 0-0 at home
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • only 1 win in 15 matches v top 11
  • 15 of 21 goals scored at home came 1st half

Dordrecht (11th)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches
  • only 4 clean sheets
  • no draw in 15 matches and in 12 away
  • only 1 win away v top 14 .
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the hope FC Eindhoven matches continue to see up to 4 goals before halftime
  • lay any late draw based on Dordrecht.
  • Both teams are highly likely to score with Dordrecht more likely to score 2nd half.
  • Tough to pick a side a FC struggle at home v top 11 and Dordrecht have only 1 win away v top 14 ( meet 15th today)

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:00 - Galatasary v Bursaspor - 1.36 Galatasary

  • 0-5 and 1-2 Gala in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Galatasaray have won 11/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Bursaspor have lost 14/20 away matches.
  • Galatasaray have had W/W double results in 8/10 home matches against middle-third teams.

Galatasary (2nd)

  • 6 consecutive home wins
  • no defeat 11 at home
  • scored 2+ goals in their last 6 at home
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • 100% wins v 5th and lower at home
  • unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower
  • led at halftime in 8/11 at home

Bursaspor (11th)

  • no win in 8
  • 3 consecutive away defeats
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime away
  • 100% defeats v top 3, 2 were 1-0
  • not beaten a top 9 team away

Conclusions

  • Galatasary lost yet again away last match v Konyaspor in a match they should have won based on the stats but at home they seem invincible and a win, scoring 2+ goals, is expected today
  • A simple enough angle. Bursapor note have had 2 1-0 defeats v top 3 so might be a defensive thorn in the side.