Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I was pleased with the reading of the Napoli and Wolfsburg match and over 2.5 goals came in easily. These Europa League matches on the whole are hard to get a handle on.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

5pm - Den Bosch v NEC Nijmegen - 1.58 away

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent head to head was a 3-1 NEC win.
  • This is 15th v 1st in the Eerste Divisie.
  • NEC are 24 points clear. Every match is a dead rubber but as you'll see, that doesn't stop NEC from winning.

Den Bosch

  • No win in 6.
  • 0-2-0-1-1 conceded recently at home -tight.
  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches
  • 0-0 and 0-1 v top 3 at home
  • Failed to score in 4 of 5 matches at home to top 6

NEC Nijmegen

  • 15 match winning streak
  • 21 without a draw
  • All wins home and away v 15th and lower.
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • NEC keeping pulling out the win even though the title was decided weeks ago.The last 4 wins have been tighter, 1-0. 1-2, 2-0 and 2-1 but they keep doing it.
  • This is a dead rubber for both sides. 3 matches left. Den Bosch I think are safe. NEC are flying and I expect will win yet again, despite not needing to. 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 that kind of a scoreline.
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6pm - Falkenbergs v Malmo FF  - 1.53 away

Standout Stats

  • Still early in the Swedish season.
  • This league could become a summer mainstay.
  • 3 and 5 goals scored by Malmo in 2014 head to heads is rather emphatic.
  • Falkenbergs have been rather erratic this season, albeit 4 matches in. They failed to score in their first 2.They kept clean sheets in their 2nd and 3rd matches and then conceded 3 in their 4th match.
  • 3 wins and a 0-0 for Malmo this season and they have scored 3/4 goals on 2 occasions.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little to go on. You could speculate on a 3+ goal haul if Malmo fly out of the blocks. They certainly seem to have the firepower to get back if Falkenbergs score first.
  • Limited stats alas.
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7pm - ADO Den Haag v Vitesse  - 1.96 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 and 6-1 Vitesse in head to heads in 2014.
  • I won't research this fully as it seems the dutch sides in the top league suddenly all downed tools and played in their flip-flops with a knotted hankie on their heads last weekend.
  • 3 matches remain this season. ADO are 6 points ahead of 3rd bottom and it would take an almighty twist for them to enter the relegation zone.
  • Vitesse are 4 points shy of 3rd placed Feyenoord with 9 available points.

ADO

  • No draw in 6 at home. Won 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Not beaten any top 6 side home or away.
  • No 0-0

Vitesse

  • All defeats bar 1 this season came v top 7 sides.
  • No defeat in 12 and in 6 away
  • Scored in their last 13 matches
  • 5 wins in 6 aways
  • Scored 3-2-1-3-3 in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • All defeats, bar 1 , came away from home
  • Both teams score in 2/3rd of away matches

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Vitesse have marginal dreams of 3rd place so I suppose are still motivated but after the performances of Feyenoord and Ajax last weekend AND AT HOME!! I cannot trust these dutch teams who think they are on their hols now PSV have won the title.
  • In Vitesse we did not see a team down tools last weekend. They beat Dordrecht with ease and are on a superb unbeaten run which could be motivation enough to see them turn up today against a team who are yet to beat any top 6 side this season.
  • Tough to get an angle in but if you look at Vitesse recently, they have scored 2+. Expect that today especially if ADO score first?
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7pm - Achilles 29 v De Graafschap - 1.55 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-4 and 2-0 for De Graaf in the last 2 head to heads
  • This is 17th of 20 v 8th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie
  • De Graaf are 6 points shy of a top 5 spot which I think will be a play-off spot. Achilles are 4th bottom, equal on points with 3rd bottom and 3 points below 16th.

Achilles

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 6 at home conceding in their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • When they win at home, they score 2/3 but failing to score recently, how likely is that today?
  • 76% over 2.5 goals at home.

De Graaf

  • Far worse away from home than at home.
  • No win in 5 away, conceding in them all
  • Only 2 wins in 12 aways is a poor return.
  • Only 1 loss v 15th and lower home and away came away to 18th.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • De Graaf seem to find a way to beat Achilles and if the latter keep failing to score, then this will make De Graaf's job easier. The problem is that they are poor away from home.
  • A key stat? 76% over 2.5 goals for Achilles is 3/4 of home matches so that suggests both teams could score today. 3 matches remain this season so both sides could improve with a winning sequence.
  • A match with a weak looking favourite with only 2 wins in 12 playing a poor home side unable to score consistently. Poor stuff!
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7pm - Roda JC v Jong Twente  - 1.35 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 to Roda in October 2014
  • This is 3rd v 12th in the Eerste Divisie. Roda are 6 points shy of 2nd spot. Jong Twente are happily ensconced in mid table mediocrity.

Roda JC

  • 2 match home winning streak
  • Scored in their last 8 at home
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets
  • 10 goals scored in their last 2 home matches.
  • Only 4 defeats at home.
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home
  • no 0-0

Jong Twente

  • Have conceded in their last 10 away
  • Are liable to concede heavily away from home.
  • 5-6-4-4-2-1-2-1-2-2 conceded away recently. 2 consecutive 2-2 scorelines.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of 6 matches home and away to top 3. Did beat 2nd 0-1 away.
  • 71% over 2.5 goals away
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 71% over 2.5 goals for both sides really stands out here. In 7 of 10 matches, we'll see 3+ goals. With Roda scoring 10 in 3 matches, expect them to keep up their side of the bargain. With Jon Twente scoring and conceding in 9 of their last 10 away matches, I think both teams will score and keep this over 2.5 goals sequence going.
  • I must speculatively back 2-2 pre match incase Jong Twente fancy another 2-2! It is always a tradeable scoreline and remains alive until 1 team scores 3.
  • Jong Twente have conceded readily of late, 2 max recently and could do so again today.
  • With the expectation for goals, lay 0-0 halftime score.
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7:30pm - Mainz v Schalke - 2.54 home

Standout Stats

  • The odds tell you everything here. Far too tight to call so only a cursory glance to see if there are any standout stats
  • Schalke are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads, winning 4-1 last time out.
  • This is 11th v 5th in the Bundesliga.
  • Mainz are 7 points above 3rd bottom. Schalke are 12 points shy of 4th spot and are unlikely to threaten.
  • 5 matches remain . So mathematically Mainz could be dragged into the relegation zone and mathematically Schalke could get 4th but realistically Schalke will need to win all 5 remaining matches and hope Mgladbach don't win any. Ain't gonna happen!
  • Mainz have only 7 wins all season, and a win, draw, win, draw against top 4. They have scored and conceded at home to all top 7 sides.
  • Schalke are poor away from home, with only 1 win away to top 15 sides.
  • Schalke have suddenly failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is a match making little appeal. The motivated side I suppose are Mainz. They do tend to score and concede at home to top 7 sides so perhaps Both teams to score today.
  • Apart from that, Schalke have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 so will need to start scoring. I will back 2-2 pre match in this match incase Schalke spark into life. Mainz have had a 2-3 and 2-2 v 3rd and 4th at home, Schalke have conceded 2 at least away to 8th, 9th, 13th and 14th, teams around Mainz's position in the league.
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7:30pm - Marseille v Lorient - 1.5 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive wins for Marseille in head to heads ended with a 1-1
  • This is 4th v 18th in French Ligue 1 - another tricky one in the business part of the season. Absurdly 3rd bottom Lorient could go as high as 13th with a win. Marseille are 8 points shy of the top 2 who are both on the same points. Marseille must put some wins together.

Marseille

  • No win in 4 at home
  • 2 consecutive defeats, 2 were 1-0 away. Pressure telling?
  • Last 2 home losses were 2-3 v PSG and Caen.Only 3 defeats at home.
  • Wins v 15th and lower at home.
  • 69% over 2.5 goals at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 32 goals scored at home. Only 4 conceded first half.
  • Scored first in 12 of 16 home matches.

Lorient

  • No win in 4 away
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 draw away v bottom
  • Lost away to all top 13 bar 3rd
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • Conceded 15 goals in the last 1/2 hour away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Marseille conceded for the first time in 4 head to heads last time out. They are off the boil lately. Pressure telling. Lorient too are in poor form, failing to score in their last 3 and only 1 win in 8.
  • This is one of those season-end matches where both teams need to win. It is a match very much for the inplay stats to decide whether Marseille are as good as their odds and league position.
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8:30pm - Braga v belenenses - 1.49 home

Standout Stats

  • 8 Braga wins in the last 9 head to heads, includes a 7-1 league win as recently as January 2015
  • This is 4th v 6th in Portugal.
  • Braga are 10 points shy of 3rd in the league and Belenenses are 11 points shy of Braga

Braga

  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets
  • 9 clean sheets at home and the max conceded is only 1 goal.
  • Only losses at home were 0-1 v 2nd and 3rd
  • Last 5 defeats saw Braga not score, and 4 of them were 1-0 only.
  • 1/2 home matches are 0-0 at halftime
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Belenenses

  • No draw in 2 away
  • Only 1 win in away matches v top 9
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Belenenses's form is bitty so a focus more on Braga. Braga are tough to beat at home and tough to score more than one against. If Belenenses score first, it is likely to be their only goal. Do note Braga have lost 1-0 more often than not so the threat is there, but a recent 7 goal haul in the cup suggests they can reply if conceding first.
  • Fear not if this is 0-0 at halftime. It's 50/50 statistically. Anyway, Braga let loose 2nd half for sure and I would expect them to score 2nd half if having a barren first half.
  • Braga should not lose today and should not concede more than 1 goal
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