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The 2 Spanish favourites yesterday got going 2nd haIf. ReasonabIy easy pickings there from the 0-0 haIftime scores. Again it is to Spain this evening for what Iooks the most readabIe match invoIving ViIIareaI.

19:30 - Leverkusen v Schalke - 2.12 Leverkusen

  • 0-1 Leverkusen in their last head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 11th in the German Bundesliga.
  • Relegation is still a possibility for Leverkusen.
  • Schalke are 6 points above the relegation zone - 4 matches remain. A win for Schalke sees them safe. Leverkusen still have a bit of work. No 1-0.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 1 win in 9 was v Darmstadt - poor stuff.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • 3-2-3-1-0-2-2 goals conceded at home v 10th and lower.
  • 2-0-3-3-0-1-3 scored v those teams too.

Schalke 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 team away. 0-1 v 13th and 14th though.

Schalke other stats

  • Scored and conceded 4 of their last 5.
  • Only scored 2 goals once in an away match.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen are scoring 2+ goals v 10th and lower albeit on 3 of 4 occasions. Which Leverkusen turns up today is anyone's guess.
  • Schalke have only scored 2 goals once so if leading, we could lay them (albeit 0-1 wins v 13th and 14th away).
  • Schalke are scoring and conceding so a hope Leverkusen will score.
  • All in all, a totally uninspiring pair, it must be said. This is hardly Barcelona v Real Madrid.

19:45 - Cardiff v Newcastle - 2.08 Newcastle

  • Haway the Man Pet Lass Man Pet. Newcastle are promoted. This is as dead rubbery as a dead rubber gets. Cardiff benefit little from winning.

19:45 - Angers v Lyon - 2.06 Lyon

  • 2-0 Lyon in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 14th v 5th in French Ligue 1. Angers are 7 points from relegation with 12 available. A draw sees them 8 points above relegation (as things stand) with 9 points remaining.
  • Lyon can only attain 4th spot.

Angers stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Played the big 2 at home last 2 matches and failed to score in defeat.
  • No draw in 10.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side at home failing to score in 5 of the matches.

Lyon stats

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • In the last 5 matches they scored and conceded in, Lyon failed to win.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • No draw home or away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lyon can beat Monaco away yet lose away to 16th, 17th and 18th. Not a team showing consistency and these kinds of sides are a nightmare to trade.
  • I would note the strong draw stats. Lay any late draw here.
  • Angers have not beaten a top 9 side at home yet. Enough to side with Lyon? Note Lyon have failed to win the last 5 matches they scored and conceded in.

19:45 - Atalanta v Juventus - 2.24 Juventus

  • I think we may see the Champions League factored into Juventus price for this match today.
  • Juventus tend to win head to heads and quite comfortably, hence the over evens quote for them surprised me.
  • This is 5th v 1st in Italian Seria A. Atalanta are 8 points shy of a top 3 spot. Juventus have a 13 points gap to Roma at the top so can afford to sacrifice a league match in order to preserve their best for the Champions League.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • Have beaten 2 of the top 3 they have played at home.

Atalanta other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches came away from home.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only lost to 1 of the top 10 at home and that was a 3-4 suggesting it was a hard fought defeat.
  • Scored 6 goals at home first 15 mins and 14 goals last 1/2 hour at home. Strong starters and finishers.

Juventus 100% stats

  • I think this match may be sacrificed in favour of the Champions League. Juventus have plenty of breathing space. Perversely though, if they win today, they win the title (pending a phone call to the lovely Rachel Riley from Countdown to check the maths there).
  • No 0-0.

Juventus other stats

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 12 wins and 2 draws last 14 matches keeping 10 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 24 matches.
  • Only 1 away win in 5 matches v the top 8 was a 0-1. This could be a toughie today.
  • 13 goals scored away directly after halftime.

Conclusions

  • It looks the ideal time in which to take on Juventus. An upcoming Champions League match. A team with only 1 win away v the top 8. A team with a 13 point gap to Roma. BUT if Juve win today, they win the league. Note they play Torino next in the Turin derby so that is no banker either sandwiched between the Champions League.
  • Atalanta are in excellent form v top 10 at home.
  • This will be a match where I will lay Juventus if Juventus score first.

19:45 - Ross County v Inverness - 1.96 Ross County

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This I think is some Scottish relegation play-off and as such season-long form may be redundant in what seems to be a 6 team table now.
  • Basic form research.
  • Ross County had only 4 home wins in the SPL season, and beat Inverness 3-2 home and away as well as a 1-1 draw away.
  • Ross scored and conceded in 13 of 16 home matches.
  • Inverness had a dire season with only the one away win. They had 6 1-1 draws home and away v 6th-9th inclusive.
  • A match I am not keen to trade. I would, if inclined to get involved, back 1-1 and 2-2 as trading angles. Please do remember that we can pick out battles.

19:45 - Villareal v Sporting Gijon - 1.47 Villareal

  • 1-3 Villareal earlier in the season.
  • This is 5th v 18th in the Spanish Primera Liga. Sporting Gijon must somehow get the teams 16th and 17th dragged into the relegation battle. That can only be achieved with a win. But they meet a Villareal coming off the back of a recent 0-1 win over Atl Madrid.
  • A top 4 spot is a very real possibility for Villareal.

Villareal 100% stats

  • All home wins v 15th and lower, scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • Not conceded in both halves in a match.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 this season at home.

Villareal other stats

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 home matches. The most recent home losses were 2-3.
  • Scored 2+ goaIs in each of their Iast 5 home matches.
  • OnIy 1 0-0 at home.

Sporting Gijon 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 5 side.
  • Not beaten any top 16 side away.

Sporting Gijon other stats

  • Both teams scored in the Iast 4 matches where Gijon did not win.
  • OnIy 5 cIean sheets.
  • 9 0-0's at haIftime away.

ConcIusions

  • The form speaks out in ViIIareaI's favour after their defensive mastercIass and smash and grab against AtI Madrid. There is pIenty for ViIIareaI to pIay for. And they pIay a side with no win away v a top 16 side. Perfect timing! ViIIareaI have been scoring 2 goaIs reguIarIy an couId do so again so factor that in especiaIIy if Gijon continue their both teams to score pattern.