Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I feel like I have just had a beer session with Shane McGowan. I guess the body is working after my dental treatment yesterday. I fecking hate dentists. I will try and tweet but must rest at some point today.
Some good tennis trades yesterday and the usual suspects performed. I did profit from Lopez winning the second set but he lost the match. Beware of players coming back from 'retirements'. The Europa League saw little to excite. Dinamo Zagreb was the only team that grabbed me. I did get involved in the PSV 0-1 by laying over 1.5 goals and backing PSV +1 goal. This way I break even with a 0-1 and profit with a 1-1. It ended 0-1.

19:30 - Antwerp v Anderlecht - 1.71 Anderlecht

  • This is the start of the Belgian Pro League  and I am surprised to see Anderlecht not shorter. I think Antwerp are newly promoted and that may be the reason - the unknown factor and of course the excitement of their first top flight match against the Champions.
  • Anderlecht last year lost only 5 matches, 4 were away from home and 2 were v top 3 sides. On that basis they may score and concede as they did away v bottom 4 last year but not lose.
  • This league is well worth following this season.

19:45 - Bray v Finn Harps - 2.06 Bray

  • 5-3 Bray and 0-3 Bray in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 8th in the Irish Premier Division.

Bray

  • 5 defeats in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.

Finn Harps

  • 3 defeats in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win in 6 aways came last match.
  • Only 1 away win v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • A favourite conceding 2 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches is not a real favourite. Bray are unbeaten v 8th and lower and that may be the sole reason for favouritism.
  • Both teams cannot keep clean sheets so look for both teams to score. I would lay Finn Harps if Finn Harps scored first.

19:45 - Cork City v Galway Utd - 1.29 Cork City

  • A 1-1 with Galway last match was I think the only non-win for Cork this season.
  • This is 1st v 10th in the Irish Premier Division.

Cork City

  • Failed to score 2 goals only once in a home match.
  • Beat Galway 4-0 at home earlier this season.

Galway United

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • No win in 11 away matches.
  • Conceded in all 11 away.
  • Lost all aways v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Cork City should be winning this evening. Their only aberration this season was away at Galway but they righted that with a 4-0 home win.
  • Cork should score 2 goals at least today.

19:45 - Drogheda v St Patricks - 1.61 St Pats

  • St Pats has scored 2 goals at least in 7 of the last 8 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 9th in the Irish Premier Division.

Drogheda

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 7 at home.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th, 10th and 11th.

St Pats

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 7 away.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Drogs broke the 2 goal head to head St Pats habit in their last meeting at Drogs. Will lightning strike twice?
  • A messy match in which I can argue for both sides (Drogs unbeaten at home v 9th, 10th, 11th - St Pats keep scoring 2 at least v Drogs bar the last visit).
  • I would note the absence of 0-0's St Pats and work that as an angle.
  • Strictly, Drogs are conceding 2 goals with alarm at home and play a side whose history tells us they love scoring 2 v Drogs. The logical choice is St Pats.

19:45 - UCD v Cabinteely - 1.8 UCD

  • 2-2 and 3-3 the last time these 2 met in the league.
  • This is 2nd v 5th in the Irish First Division, a division I am looking at, on a quiet Friday.

UCD

  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 4th and lower, and remember in such a small league, teams play each other multiple times a season.

Cabinteely

  • Unbeaten in 3 matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals away at least v top 3 this season.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 may be in play if UCD cannot get over that failing to score and keeping a clean sheet pattern.
  • On the fact of it, UCD should score 2 goals against this type of opponent, at least.
  • Score draw looks best case Cabinteely.
  • Based on head to heads, the more speculative amongst you might want a 2-2 correct score as a trading vehicle.

19:45 - Waterford v Athlone - 1.16 Waterford

  • 2-1 and 1-6 Waterford in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 7th in the Irish First Division.
  • A draw and all wins for Waterford at home suggests we expect the win and at least 2 goals scored by Waterford today.
  • Athlone has lost all away matches v top 6 teams and conceded 3-5 goals v 2nd to 4th away (that fits in with the 1.16 odds for Waterford).
  • Waterford may concede. Let's hope they concede first.

19:45 - Wexford v Cobh Ramblers - 1.97 Cobh

  • Cobh has won the last 2 head to heads - one-goal-in-it matches.
  • This is 8th v 3rd in the Irish First Division.

Wexford

  • Only 3 wins, 2 came within the last 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Scored 2 goals only once in a home match.

Cobh

  • 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • 4 defeats in 5 away matches.
  • No away draw.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 away matches v teams below them.

Conclusions

  • We may see both teams score and I would certainly be a Wexford layer were they to score first. They find it hard to score that 2nd goal.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians - 1.55 Shamrock

  • 5 wins in 6 for Shamrock Rovers in head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.

Shamrock Rovers

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 home matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only home losses v 1st and 3rd.

Bohemians

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 draws all season.
  • No away draw.
  • Lost home and away to all top 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • Another readable match in the Irish Premier Division it seems.
  • Shamrock Rovers should not be losing today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw and hope Bohs continue to avoid the away draw.

TENNIS

Tennis has been good to us recently and it is no coincidence that the return of top ranked male and female players has contributed to that. I may not be able to research all matches below but will list them so you traders are aware of the pre-match odds.Start times are fluid as you should know by now. Tennis can be weather-affected.

ATP Hamburg

Karen Khachanov v Federico Delbonis - 1.86 Karen

  • Great research yesterday told you Karen v Bedene was a 3 setter.
  • The market today suggests similar.
  • 56th v 98th.
  • No head to heads.
  • 4 matches already for Delbonis this tournament and a beating of Ferrer was an eyecatcher - that after losing to Ferrer in Bastad.
  • A 3 time Challenger tour clay court finalist, Delbonis is obviously good here.
  • Karen is one of the old reliables club so look to back him if he loses first set.

Leonardo Mayer v Jiri Vesely - 1.7 Jiri

Nicolas Kicker v Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.25 Phil

Diego Schwartzman v Florian Mayer - 1.47 Diego


ATP Atlanta

Tommy Paul v Gilles Muller - 1.21 Gilles

  • If this was grass, well.....you'd know what to do with Gilles.
  • 396th v 28th, Paul is an American in America
  • No head to heads.
  • Impressive scalps from Paul this Atlanta in Chung and Jaziri.
  • I would tentatively lay Gilles if Gilles wins the first set (lost 2nd set tie breaker yesterday) but would be more confident backing Gilles if Paul won first set. Paul may play above his ranking today.

Lukas Lacko v John Isner - 1.19 Isner

Ryan Harrison v Christopher Eubanks - 1.3 Ryan


ATP Gstaad

David Goffin v Robin Haase - 1.78 Goff

  • What to make of the Goff? Fully wound up?
  • 10th v 46th here. The market suggests a 3 setter.
  • 3-0 Goff head to heads, 2 in 2017 and all competitive. 2 were 3 setters, and 2 had a first set tie breaker.
  • Look to lay the first set winner in the hope this continues the head to head tightness.

Yannick Hanfmann v Joao Sousa - 1.59 Sousa

Denis Istomin v Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.26 Agut

Ernests Gulbis v Fabio Fognini - 1.96 Gulbis


WTA Bastad

Caroline Wozniacki v Kateryna Kozlova - 1.2 Wozza

  • I don't need to research do I? You know what you get with Wozza. A fight back from the brink so watch out for her high odds and back at those high odds. She tends to deliver.

Katerina Siniakova v Anastasija Sevastova - 1.47 Seva

  • 38th v 26th.
  • Siniakova won 2016 head to head in 3 sets.
  • Not sure how to read Kat's clay court form as she met, and lost to, the likes of Kerber and Kuznetzova.
  • Sevastova has had an amazing run of 27 clay court matches without a 3rd set. This suggests first set winner wins and makes trading difficult.

Elise Mertens v Aleksandra Krunic - 1.68 Elise


WTA Nanchang

Lin Zhu v Shuai Peng - 1.23 Peng

  • 136th v 37th.
  • 2 Chinese players.
  • 2 consecutive hard court finals for Lin in 60K and 25K events. She beat a 1.22 shot last round here in 2 sets!
  • 3 setter and retirement for Peng. I sniff a short odds lay here. I would prefer laying Peng if Peng wins the first set.