Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

If I am up and about I will do a Twitter live chat @drtclub at 19:00. Please note the 'if'. There are plenty of live chats over the weekend. There is a shortlist at the DRT Facebook page (shortlist below).

20:00 - Bolton Wanderers v Bristol City - 1.86 Bristol City

  • Comprehensive Bristol City wins to nil in the last 2 head to heads.

Bolton (22nd)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 home matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Beat 4th and home, but lost the rest played v top 11 at home.
  • Only 2 wins in 19 matches played v the top 15 home and away.

Bristol City (5th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 away losses.
  • 2-3 win v 21st and 1-2 v 23rd away.
  • 8 goals scored away in the last 15 minutes.

Conclusions

  • This week I hope you have seen why I tend to leave the English Championship alone. It is tough to call, it is very competitive.
  • Here I think the market is right.based on the only 2 away wins for Bristol City, wins v bottom 4 sides too away.
  • Bolton have only 1 loss in 9 matches at home BUT CONTEXT PLEASE......only 2 wins in 19 matches v top 15 suggests probability wise, Bolton will struggle to win.
  • Note both teams scored in Bristol wins v bottom 4 away so lay Bolton I think if Bolton score first.

19:45 - Marseille v Metz - 1.26 Marseille (shortlisted)

  • 1-0 Metz and 0-3 Marseille in the last 2 head to heads.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 1-0 wins at halftime at home.
  • 6 wins to nil, a win to 1 and a draw v teams 10th and lower at home.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Metz

  • 12 games under new manager so a focus really on these.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 came v Monaco., a team Marseille duked out a 2-2 with last match.
  • Scored and conceded in the 4 away matches under the new manager.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • All defeats away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Metz are obviously improving under their new manager. That away loss v Monaco may be a template for what might happen today. All season, Metz have lost to the top 6.
  • There is that Swansea v Liverpool result potential under new manager but Marseille have scored 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches, scores in their last 11 at home too so I expect them to score and would lay any Metz lead.

19:30 - Koln v Dortmund - 1.79 Dortmund

  • 6 matches in for the new manager of Koln so I won't look at head to heads.

Koln (18th)

  • 6 matches in for the new Koln Manager.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 home wins and a draw last 3 at home. Should have beaten Freiburg at home too.
  • Bayern only beat them 1-0.

Dortmund (6th)

  • 2 wins and 3 draws last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Won away v 15th and 17th without conceding.

Conclusions

  • Aubameyang still at Dortmund? Wait and see.
  • I think this is a tricky one for Dortmund. They needed a 90th+ minute equaliser last match.
  • Koln kept Bayern to 1-0.
  • I would lay Dortmund if they lead 0-1 late on.

19:00 - Vitesse v Groningen - 1.67 Vitesse

  • 4-2 Groningen in the last head to head.

Vitesse (6th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came away from home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 home losses v top 3 sides.
  • 5 draws though and 2 wins in the remaining 7 matches at home.
  • Both teams to score in 6 matches home and away v 12th - 16th.

Groningen (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • 4 score draws in those 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Away losses 3-1 and 3-2 v top 5.

Conclusions

  • A feeling both teams could score today. Both sides tend to score season long.
  • Groningen have only the one away win and on that basis should be vulnerable. Vitesse yes have lost v top 3 but tend to draws at home.
  • Lay Groningen if Groningen scores first.

20:00 - Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna - 1.58 Sociedad

  • 1-0 and 2-4 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads.

Real Sociedad (15th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 at home.
  • Scored 2 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches and still lost.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2-4-2-0 goals v bottom 4 teams.

Deportivo (18th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 9 matches home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 2-1 loss, 4-1 loss, 2-2 draws v teams around Sociedad away in the league.

Conclusions

  • A strong both teams to score pattern and a natural inclination to lay Depor were they to score first. They have no win in 5 away matches.
  • Real Sociedad have shown some consistency v bottom 4 at home, scoring 2 goals at least. We know they have goals in them, scoring 2 goals v Barcelona and Villareal recently.
  • I will base my angle on the hope Sociedad will be in scoring mood today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.59 Cambuur (shortlisted)

  • 4 consecutive Cambuur wins in head to heads.

Cambuur (11th)

  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten in 5 home matches v 9th and lower.

Go Ahead Eagles (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away losses.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals away in each of the last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away and only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/11 away matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, Cambuur could score 2/3 goals today and on that basis Go Ahead are layable if scoring first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the expectation for goals.
  • Both teams could score with Go Ahead Eagles not winning.

19:00 - Volendam  v Fortuna Sittard - 2.18 Volendam

  • 2 consecutive Fortuna wins in the last 2 head to heads.

Volendam (15th)

  • 6 wins, a draw and a loss last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2-3-0-3-4-4 scored recently.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 4.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Fortuna Sittard (3rd)

  • 2 consecutive defeats bucked the odds.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 100% wins v 14th and lower home and away.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sittard are gaining an untrustworthy profile with 2 shock defeats when strong favourites now.
  • ON form, they tend to beat teams 14th and lower.
  • Volendam are scoring readily and could be competitive but again on form, tend to lose to top 4 teams.
  • Strong second half scoring and conceding stats so watch that if 0-0 a t halftime.

19:00 - Eindhoven v RKC Waalwijk - 2 Eindhoven (shortlisted)

  • 7 consecutive Eindhoven wins in head to heads.

Eindhoven (12th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches came away.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of 13 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets only.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% unbeaten v 14th and lower. 6 wins and a 0-0 in 7 matches.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

RKC Waalwijk (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Draws away v 11th, 14th and 16th.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Strong both teams to score pattern for Eindhoven suggests Waalwijk may score without winning.
  • Simple angle.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Telstar - 2.2 Den Bosch

  • 2-0 and 3-2 Telstar in the last 2 head to heads.

Den Bosch (10th)

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • 5 of 7 defeats this season came v top 6 teams.
  • Scored first in 9/10 at home.

Telstar (4th)

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • 1-0-1-1-0 scored recently away.
  • Not played 6th-10th inclusive away but no win away v 14th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Den Bosch look capable of scoring today.
  • They are vulnerable v top 6. Telstar away are vulnerable v top 14.

19:00 - De Graafschap  v Utrecht II - 1.27 De Graaf (shortlisted)

  • 3-1 De Graaf, 3-2 Utrecht, 1-4 De Graaf in the last 3 head to heads.

De Graafschap (9th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches were all 3-2.
  • 1-3 win last match ended that.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 16 and last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 wins out of 3 v bottom 3.

Jong Utrecht (20th)

  • 11 losses and a 0-0 in 12 matches.
  • 7 defeats in 8 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 100% defeats v top 10.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 15 of 21 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Jong really should be losing this match -simple angle.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Almere City v Dordrecht - 1.56 Almere (shortlisted)

  • 3 Almere wins ended with a 1-1 last head to head.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 17/20 Almere City home matches against middle-third teams and in 9/12 Dordrecht away matches against top-six teams.
  • Dordrecht have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams.

Almere City (6th)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded  in their last 10 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 22 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Dordrecht (13th)

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Those were 3 of only 4 clean sheets all season.
  • No draw in 10 away and 12 overall.
  • Lost all aways v top 11.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score seems the norm for an Almere match. They have conceded in 22 matches so do not be surprised with a Dordrecht goal.
  • Solid winning form Dordrecht needs a context. They have lost all aways v top 11 teams.
  • 2 goals minimum expected in total.
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home Almere - lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

19:00 - Emmen v NEC - 2.18 NEC

  • 1-1 in the last league head to head.

Emmen (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2-2- or 2-1 scorelines in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 2-1 or 2-2 at home (without losing) in the last 5 home matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Score draws v top 2 so far.
  • 5 draws in 6 matches at home v top 10 teams.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 1st half.

NEC (1st)

  • Only 4 defeats but 2 defeats in their last 3 matches came away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • All defeats came away v top 10 teams conceding 3 goals on 5 occasions.

Conclusions

  • NEC may be first but they are very vulnerable v top 10 teams.
  • It looks like both teams could score today.
  • I would look at 2-2, 3-2, 2-3  as possible tradable scorelines.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given NEC's concession rate away v top 10 and Emmen's recent ability to score 2 goals.

17:00 - Bursaspor v Besiktas - 1.72 Besiktas

  • 9 consecutive Besiktas wins in head to heads.

Bursaspor (10th)

  • 4 losses and a draw in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All defeats home and away v top 6.
  • 0-1-0-0 scored at home v top 7 teams.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Besiktas (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 2 wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Are more vulnerable away but still only 1 loss in 12 matches v teams 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Bursaspor have scored only 0-1-0-0 v top 7 at home and on that basis lay them if they score first.
  • An argument for Besiktas scoring 2 goals today as they tend to do v teams 9th and lower.