I have to go out early today but once back will be on Twitter I hope for the afternoon tennis. Some big names. See you around 1pm or earlier @drtclub.
19:30 - Dundalk v Cork City - 2.68 Dundalk
- 2-1 Cork in the last head to head.
- This is 2nd v 1st in the Irish Premier Division. The market expects a tight match.
Dundalk 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals matches.
- Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower.
Dundalk other stats
- Only one draw was a 0-0.
- Failed to score only in that match.
- 4 consecutive clean sheets.
- Lost at home to 2nd and away v 1st.
Cork City 100% stats
- Unbeaten , all wins bar a 1-1 draw.
- Scored in all matches.
- All wins home and away v top 10.
- Expect Cork City to score at some point. That is a ready angle. Dundalk did lose at home to 2nd and that may show us they are vulnerable to Cork City.
- I must say that Cork City have been ultra reliable as a trading vehicle so if you were to focus on one match today, make it a Cork City match on a Friday.
- I would lay Dundalk if Dundalk scored first.
19:45 - Limerick v Bray - 2.34 Limerick
- 0-1 Limerick in the last head to head.
- This is 6th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.
Limerick 100% stats
Limerick other stats
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
- Not beaten a top 8 side at home failing to score that 2nd goal in all matches v top 5.
Bray 100% stats
- No away match with a 1-0 or 0-1.
Bray other stats
- All matches bar 1 saw at least one team score at least 2 goals away.
- Beat 2nd and 4th away but lost to 5th and 7th away.
- Only 1 away draw was a 0-0.
- Failed to score last 2 aways.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Lay any late draw given Bray have had only one draw and that was a 0-0 away.
- Lay Limerick if Limerick score first. No 1-0 or 0-1 for Bray away from home.
- I do expect one team to score at least 2 goals. If 0-0 for a while back over 2.5 goals.
19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Finn Harps - 1.9 Sligo Rovers
- 2-1 Finn Harps in the last head to head.
- This is 10th v 8th in the Irish Premier Division.
Sligo Rovers 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- Only home defeats came v top 2.
Sligo Rovers other stats
- Only 3 wins all season came at home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored in all home matches.
- Scored and conceded in all matches v 8th and lower, with a loss and 4 1-1 draws.
Finn Harps 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
- Scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 3.
Finn Harps other stats
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- 4 defeats in 5 aways.
- No draw in 11 matches.
- Conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 aways.
- Both teams to score looks like a possible pattern to recur today. In this case I would back 2-1/1-2 and hope the match is 1-1 for a while to allow us to trade out of both scorelines.
- Lay any late draw while Finns continue to avoid draws.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Expect Sligo to score - they have scored in all home matches.
19:45 - Bohemians v Drogheda - 1.98 Bohs
- 0-1 Bohemians in the last head to head.
- This is 7th v 9th in the Irish premier division.
Bohemians 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
Bohemians other stats
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 4 defeats in 5 home matches.
- Only 1 draw all season.
- Conceded in all bar 1 at home.
Drogheda 100% stats
- No away draw.
- No 0-0 away of course.
- All defeats away v top 6 and play 7th today.
- Beat 8th away just to throw a spanner in there.
Drogheda other stats
- Failed to score in 4 with 2 consecutive 0-0's.
- Failed to score in 3 of 4 away.
- Lay any late 0-0. 0-0 sequences tend to end.
- I would favour Bohemians today based on Drogs losing away to all top 6. Lay Drogs if they score first although they have failed to score in 4 and in 3 of their last 4 away.
20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v St Patricks - 1.7 Shamrock
- 0-0 and 2-1 St Pats in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 5th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division.
Shamrock Rovers 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Unbeaten at home v teams below them with a draw and 4 wins.
St Pats 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals.
St Pats other stats
- Only 1 win away.
- Only 1 away clean sheet.
- Score draws v 3rd and 4th away.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- Lay any late 0-0. Given St Pats score draw v 3rd and 4th away I would lay St Pats if St Pats score first.
- I expect 2 goals at least in total if St Pats continue with their 100% over 1.5 goals pattern.
Busta v Dimitrov - 1.68 Dimitrov
- 20th v 12th in the rankings and I think 11th-20th are very similar. The top 10 are a step apart.
- Busta won in 2016 in Madrid , his first head to head win in 4.
- Dimitrov at 1.62 was the favourite that day. The first set was a tie breaker.
- Losses v 18th and 49th for Busta recently. He won the Estoril Tournament on Clay.
- Prior to Madrid, Dimitrov was poor, but since he has lost to Thiem in Madrid (winning the first set) and Del Potro in Rome (3 setter).
- If Dimitrov is to lose it will not be 3-0. This could even be a 5-setter today featuring 2 players very tight in the rankings. With a potential 5 setter, lay the player leading 2-1.
Zeballos v Goffin - 1.14 Goffin
- 84th v 10th.
- 4 consecutive head to head Goffin wins, the last 2 were straight set wins.
- Zeballos showed something in reaching the semi final on clay in Barcelona beaten Khachanov along the way (the winner in straight sets over Berdych yesterday).
- Goffin so far has had 4 6-2 set wins, one 6-3 set win and one 6-4 set win. He dropped a set last match when 2-0 ahead.
- Zeballos beat Karlovic, winning the first 2 sets in a tie breaker.
- I do think that Zeballos could take a set today, but which set? I would be tempted at laying Goffin at 1.15. He has, though , been excellent and may win the first set.
- If Goff leads 2-0, I will lay him. Zeballos as I say has a set in him. I would not put off any layers of a 1.15 shot the deeper we get into a Grand Slam.
Garbine Muguruza v Yulia Putinseva - 1.29 Muguruza
- 6th v 31st.
- Muguruza has been great for trading already this French Open losing the first set v Kontaveit and winning the next 2 sets.
- Muguruza retired in Miami so note that - we saw a previously retired Almagro retire again yesterday. Any prior recent injury can recur.
- In Rome Muguruza reached the semi finals but again retired there.
- Putinseva had little problems v Larsson. She did lose the 2nd set but won the 3rd 6-3.
- Given Muguruza has retired from tournaments twice this year, I think she is layable. Better layable if winning the first set as we will get shorter odds but can the Russian President in a skirt start well?
Caroline Wozniacki v Catherine Bellis - 1.38 Caroline
- 11th v 58th.
- Straight set Wozza win in 2017 on hard.
- Bellis must be respected in beating the in-form Bertens (my pre tournament fancy) in straight sets.
- With Wozza retiring in Strasbourg (and again potential spinal problem if I remember rightly), I must side with Bellis today, but how?
- A hope Wozza wins the first set or trades lower than 1.38 odds. I would then lay Wozza and hope Bellis repeats the excellent form v Bertens.
Diego Schwartzmann v Novak Djokovic - 1.07
- 34th v 2nd.
- Novak won the solitary head to head in 2014.
- Novak is yet to drop a set. His odds have edged up from 1.03 to 1.07. We did lay him 2-0 up in the 3-0 set betting market at 1.1 the other day and the odds rose to 1.24.
- This is something I would do if Novak took a 2 set lead.
- As ever, 1.08 is layable off the bat in the best of 5 sets format. There is still a slight question mark regarding the fire in Novak's belly.
- Diego did win the first set v Nishikori but then in Rome lost to Jack Sock. Diego should not win today.
Shuai Zhang v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.2 Svet
- 32nd v 9th.
- Zhang won the last head to head in Prague.but it is 4-1 Svetlana in head to heads.
- Both players won the first set, lost the 2nd set in their last matches.
- Will we see a 3 setter today? Lay the first set winner therefore.
Samantha Stosur v Bethanie Mattek-Sands - 1.38 Stosur
- 18th v 120th. On rankings alone, this should be Stosur's.
- Last head to head was 2009 in Wimbledon.
- Mattek has gone through qualifying to get here.She beat Petra Kvitova in 2 tie breaker sets. I am not overwhelmed by tie breaker set wins.
- 2 straight set wins for Stosur, the 2nd set last match was a tie breaker.
- Stosur does tend towards tie breakers. She has won the last 4 tie breakers.
- If we see a tie breaker we may see a rise in Stosur's odds. I would be keen to back here if she gets to near evens.
Milos Raonic v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.12 Raonic
- 6th v 115th.
- 2-0 Milos in head to heads - last one was 2014.
- Quarters in Rome, Semis in Lyon for Raonic. He was beaten by a Berdych beaten yesterday.
- Lopez was poor in Barcelona, Estoril and Madrid.
- Expectation for 3-0 or 3-1 Raonic. Raonic's odds have risen in-play and if the rise is significant then I will back Raonic.
Dominic Thiem v Steve Johnson - 1.11 Thiem
- 9th v 25th in the rankings. 5 and 4 set matches for SJ so far in France tells us to lay him if he leads 0-1 or 0-2 sets.
- Thiem is excellent. He beat Nadal on clay in Rome.
- Final, Final, Semi final on clay for Thiem.
- Watch out for Steve Johnson to potentially take a set and not win today. That's a ready angle.
Nikolaz Basilashvili v Rafa Nadal - 1.03 Nadal
- 61st v 5th in the rankings.
- No head to heads.
- Basil took a set off Tsonga before losing in Lyon. We can only hope for the same today.
- Nadal must be layed at 1.03. He is only human. And this is a Yazz - the only way is up!!
- Nadal has not been bothered yet and that is likely to continue but 1.03 lays are to be encouraged.