Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

At first glance, not the most interesting of coupons this evening. An obvious pre-cursor to weekend football and the Champions League /Europa League matches to come. If online, I will tweet @drtclub if I am not out this evening. No shortlist today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Middlesbrough v Leeds United - 1.84 Boro

  • 2-1 Leeds last head to heads.

Middlesbrough (7th)

  • Scored 3 goals last 2 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v teams below them in the league.

Leeds (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 came last match.
  • No win 5 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 13.

Conclusions

  • Form wise, Boro should remain unbeaten today against a Leeds going through a rough patch and poor away v top 10.
  • Lay any Leeds lead.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Nice v Lille -1.76 Nice

  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 Nice, 1-1 last 4 head to heads.

Nice (9th)

  • 3 losses and 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Inconsistent home form. Losses v 3rd and 4th at home, and 17th and 18th at home.

Conclusions

  • And that's where it ends. Form is all over the place here.

19:45 - Monaco v Bordeaux - 1.6 Monaco

  • 2-1 Monaco and 0-2 Monaco last 2 head to heads.

Monaco (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 12 and in 7 at home. 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 14 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.

Bordeaux (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6.
  • 0-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0 last 4 away.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Only recent loss was 1-0 away v 3rd.
  • Only 1 away win v top 13.
  • 5 of 7 away defeats were 1-0.
  • 68% of conceded goals away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Attack v defence? A lot of 1-0 defeats Bordeaux and 3 recent 1-0 away matches.
  • I would have gone lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. It depends if Attack beats defence this match.
  • Bordeaux away v top 13 are poor and they should not win.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Mgladbach v Werder Bremen - 1.91 Mgladbach

  • 0-1 and 0-2 Mgladbach last 2 head to heads.

Mgladbach (7th)

  • 4 defeats to nil and a win last 5.
  • Last 4 matches were 1-0.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 v teams below them in the league at home.
  • 77% of home goals conceded came 2nd half.

Werder Bremen (14th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Beat 2nd and 3rd away 1-2 but those the only wins in 8 defeats v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Another tough to call match. Mgladbach are winning v teams below them at home. Werder Bremen have only 2 losses in 8 matches.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Waalwijk v NEC Nijmegen - 1.65 NEC

  • 4 consecutive NEC wins in head to heads.

Waalwijk (18th)

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's is something to work with.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 5 losses and a 1-1 home and away v top 4 teams.

NEC (2nd)

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches came at home.
  • 5 defeats in 6 away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Those losses for NEC have come v 12th and higher away.
  • Whilst not meeting bottom 3 away, NEC have 7 wins and 2 draws v teams 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • NEC are in poor recent form but note that these away defeats are v teams 12th and higher. They actually tend to win v teams in Waalwijk's position.
  • So I will go with the form despite NEC's poor form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I will lay Waalwijk if they score first.

 19:00 - Helmond Sport v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 2 Helmond

  • 1-3 Helmond in the last head to head.

Helmond (19th)

  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2 draws and a win at home v 15th and lower.

Jong AZ  (16th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No draw 13 away, conceding in each of those.
  • Lost away v bottom 4, 2 1-0 defeats.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Helmond cope with 15th and lower, Jong AZ tend to lose tight matches v bottom 4. Enough to side with Helmond today in a battle of strugglers?

19:00 - Almere City v Jong Ajax - 1.86 Jong Ajax

  • 6-3 and 3-0 Jong Ajax last 2 head to heads.

Almere City (8th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 10.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played 2 of top 7 at home, 3-2 and 2-1.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Jong Ajax (1st)

  • 8 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats recently.
  • Scored and conceded 9 of last 10 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • 14 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams should score today with one team scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • An argument for backing 2-2 pre match and hoping the goals flow as both sides have been adept at scoring (and conceding) 2 goals of late.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, back over 2.5 goals.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Telstar - 2.22 Dordrecht

  • 0-0, 0-2 Telstar, 3-0 Telstar in the last 3 head to heads.

Dordrecht (9th)

  • 6 wins in 7.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 16.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-0 v 3rd, 2-2 v 4th, 2-3 v 6th so could be competitive today.
  • 16 goals scored, 17 conceded 2nd half at home.

Telstar (5th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 3 0-0's halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. I would lay Telstar if Tel scored first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score market.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v MVV Maastricht - 1.82 Sittard

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Sittard last 2 head to heads.

Fortuna Sittard (3rd)

  • 4 defeats and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • Scored last 13 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 8 wins and a 2-2 at home v 8th and lower.

Maastricht (12th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • No draw 11 away.
  • 4-1, 2-1 v top 4 away.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Sittard are a bit like Leverkusen - dodgepots of late. 3rd in league. Strictly on form, Sittard should be winning this match. They may concede.
  • Do you trust them? No win in 6 is not the form of 3rd in the league.

19:00 - Volendam v FC Eindhoven - 1.77 Volendam

  • 3-1 Volendam and 1-0 Eindhoven last 2 head to heads.

Volendam (14th)

  • 7 wins and 3 losses last 10 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of last 11 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (46.2%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v 6th and lower.
  • 15 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Eindhoven (15th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • All wins bar one v 12th and lower.
  • 73% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This could be competitive with FC Eindhoven thriving outside of the top 11.
  • Volendam are likely to score and concede and may outscore FC Eindhoven. At least if they continue to score 2 goals at home.

19:00 - FC Oss v Cambuur  - 1.96 Cambuur

  • 2-7 Cambuur and 1-3 Oss last 2 matches.

FC Oss (11th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches came away.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 8th and lower.

Cambuur (13th)

  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 12 away.
  • 12 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Cambuur score it is likely to be 2nd half so note that if they have not scored by halftime. With only 6 clean sheets, Oss are likely to concede at some point.
  • That's my only angle really.