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A selection of matches from the English Championship, Turkey, Ireland and Holland. I will be adding a few more matches to the Bulletin through the day (kick-offs are at 19:00 so I have time). It is good to have league football back as opposed to International Friendlies.  I am not sure a weekend live chat is a good idea, what with the Easter Holidays. Let me know your thoughts. Historically, these Easter live chats, when I have done them, have seen a marked drop in attendance.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

13:00 - Millwall v Nottm Forest - 1.96 Millwall

  • 1-0 Forest last head to head.

Millwall (10th)

  • 8 wins in their last 12 matches.
  • 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • 4 draws in 5 home matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 3 home defeats v 12th, 21st and 23rd.
  • Only 1 loss at home v top 20.

Nottm Forest (16th)

  • 3 consecutive 0-0's. A sequence we took on last week without success.
  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 10 away was v 1st.

Conclusions

  • I would have to take on this 0-0 sequence of Forest. I took it on last weekend and will do so again. 4 consecutive 0-0's is rare.
  • Millwall should not lose today. We may see 0-0 at halftime (8 at home Millwall). 6 wins in 7 Millwall, 8 wins in 12 Millwall. And we need goals to win!

15:00 - Leeds v Bolton - 1.97 Leeds

  • 2-1 Leeds and 2-3 Leeds last 2 head to heads.

Leeds (14th)

  • Only 1 win in 14 matches.
  • 4 defeats in 6 at home.
  • 4-2-2-2-0-3-3-2-2 conceded of late and still favourites?
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v 18th and lower.

Bolton (19th)

  • Bolton have not scored a 2nd goal in a match in 18 consecutive matches.
  • No win in 6 away. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Looking at Leeds you'd ask if the market has gone mad installing them as favourites? Conceding readily, only 1 win in 14
  • Yet they meet a Bolton with only 1 away win and not scoring a 2nd goal in 18 consecutive matches.
  • It is this latter point we could latch onto. If Bolton score first, lay them as they seem unlikely to get that 2nd goal.

15:00 - Cardiff v Burton - 1.42 Cardiff

  • 0-1 Cardiff and 1-2 Burton in the last 2 head to heads.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • 9 wins and 2 draws in the last 11 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (31%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.

Burton (23rd)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 6 away.
  • Failed to score in 10 of 13 away v top 16.

Conclusions.

  • This should be a home win to put pressure on Wolves at the top. Burton tend to have trouble even scoring v top 16.
  • A hint at a 0-0 at halftime but definitely back Cardiff to end any late 0-0.

19:45 - Derby v Sunderland - 1.55 Derby

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.

Derby (5th)

  • No win in 7 sees 6 draws.
  • 9 draws in their last 14 matches could potentially cost Derby a place.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (22%).
  • 1-1 v 22nd , 1-0 v 23rd at home. Only 2 home losses v teams below them in the league.

Sunderland (24th)

  • Need a win. They can still get out of this mess.
  • No win in 10 though.
  • 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 losses recently away so keeping it tight but not quite working.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (21%).
  • Only 1 win v top 12 home and away.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • By the looks of Sunderland v top 6 away, we lay them if they score first as they rarely score a 2nd goal v top 6.
  • This, despite Derby being in a case of draw-itis. I would lay any late draw today as both teams need to win, for different reasons.
  • An argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as both sides see 78% of matches with at least a goal.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

18:00 - Sivasspor v Karabukspor - 1.3 Sivasspor

  • Sivasspor won the last head to head 0-1.

Sivasspor (8th)

  • Only 3 defeats this year came away and were all 1-0.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Scored 2+ goals at home v bottom 7.

Karabukspor (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 6 consecutive defeats conceding 3+ goals.
  • 11 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 11 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • This looks as straight forward as the odds suggest. We could even see Sivasspor scoring 2/3 or more goals today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expect a win for Sivasspor and react to anything else.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

Worth monitoring now albeit 7 games maximum played is really not enough to get a proper form flavour of the teams. Still there are enough small angles to work with. This is a league too which will serve us well over the summer so is well worth us getting to know the teams early on in their season.

19:45 - Bray v Cork City - 1.23 Cork

  • 0-2, 1-0, 1-0 Cork last 3 head to heads.
  • Irish league worth following as it will take us into the Summer.
  • Only 7 games in so very limited research.
  • A draw and 6 losses for Bray this season.They have scored and conceded last 3 matches.
  • Cork have only lost to fellow likely title contenders Dundalk. 1-0 and 1-1 last 2 aways.
  • Cork should win today, having already beaten teams which have beaten Bray.
  • Note Bray have scored of late. Hope Bray score first. Cork came from behind last match.

19:45 - Derry v St Patricks - 2.24 Derry

  • The odds suggest a tougher to call match.
  • Derry are scoring for fun lately. 5-5 last 2 homes. That came v bottom 3 sides at home.
  • Derry have scored in all 6 matches played this season. Will that continue tonight?
  • Win, Win, Loss away for St Pats this season. Tough to read as Derry are 6th. St Pats 3 wins came v 7th and lower. Their defeats v 4th and higher.
  • Not sure how to play this one.

19:45 - Dundalk v Bohemians - 1.3 Dundalk

  • Quick precis of all Irish as only 7 matches played.
  • All clean sheets Dundalk. 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats to nil Bohemians.
  • It does look like a home win to nil. If you fancy risking it, 3 correct scores such as 2-0, 3-0, 4-0?
  • If Bohs score first and early first half, lay them in the halftime score market. It goes without saying that we oppose any Bohs lead at any stage in the match.

19:45 - Limerick v Waterford - 1.71 Waterford

  • 3 defeats in 4 for Limerick. 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Limerick failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Limerick's sole win at home was a 1-0 v poor side Bray.
  • Waterford are yet to draw, winning 5 and losing 2 v the likely 1st and 2nd come season end.
  • Limited form points to the away side Waterford not losing today. If Limerick score, Waterford could still win. 3 2-1 wins this season.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers - 1.57 Shamrock Rovers

  • A draw and 3 consecutive home wins for Shamrock suggests they are tough to beat at home.
  • They have failed to score only twice so do expect a Shamrock goal at some point.
  • Shamrock's last 2 wins were 1-0.
  • Sligo have conceded 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches so are vulnerable in defence and are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
  • 1-2 and 2-2 last 2 aways for Sligo.
  • The fact Sligo have lost AT HOME to the top 3 and play 4th away, we can infer Sligo will not be winning today. Yes, only 7 matches to go with so note that.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v NEC Nijmegen - 1.53 NEC

  • 2-1 NEC earlier this season.

FC Eindhoven (18th)

  • 9 defeats in 11 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats ended with a win last home match.
  • No draw in 14 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 13 and last 11 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost 3/3 v top 2.

NEC (1st)

  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • 0-2, 0-2, 1-1 last 3 away.
  • All defeats this season came away v top 12 teams.

Conclusions

  • On form, NEC should be scoring 2 goals at least today which should en sure the win. FC Eindhoven are 3/3 defeats v the top 2.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on FC Eindhoven.

19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v Jong Utrecht - 1.48 Jong AZ

  • 0-2 and 1-0 Utrecht last 2 head to heads.

Jong AZ (15th)

  • 7 wins, a draw and a loss last 9 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (26%).
  • Strangely, only 1 win v 13th and lower at home, but 6 v teams above them in the league.
  • 65% of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong Utrecht (20th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 15 away.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 away matches.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Jong Utrecht on form are expected to concede at least 2 goals and that should form the basis of your decision making here.
  • A strong 2nd half bias for Jong AZ so do take on a 0-0 at halftime and remember the above point if 0-0 at halftime.

19:00 - Emmen v Dordrecht - 1.57 Emmen

  • 0-4 Emmen and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Emmen (5th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v top 14 teams.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 10 matches at home v top 13.

Dordrecht (9th)

  • No draw in 21 and in 15 away.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • 4 wins in 6 away.
  • 4 defeats v top 4 away.
  • 8 losses away v top 14 teams.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Emmen today. Dordrecht have scored last 13 matches. Lay them if they score first today.
  • Emmen have failed to score in their last 2 at home which is a concern but they have scored 2+ goals in 7/10 home matches v top 13.