Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

LIVE CHAT OR NO LIVE CHAT? I am guessing "not" this weekend as people will have plans over this extended Easter break. I am happy to do a live chat if there are enough takers so email me at [email protected] . There is a decent enough set of matches on Saturday and Sunday from the major leagues so there is plenty to work with.

I am unlikely to be able to do a live chat next weekend, hence my open-ness for a live chat this weekend. Perversely, my girlfriend (I always blame her!) has booked  our "easter" break for next weekend.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

15:00 UK Bristol Rovers v Chester - 1.5 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 last time these 2 met, Bristol led 0-2
  • This is 3rd v 12th in the Conference National. Bristol could go top with a win

Bristol Rovers

  • Only 2 losses since 9th September
  • 8 wins in their last 10 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home
  • 2 losses at home v 4th and 7th.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Chester

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • 8 losses and a win away v top 10. 3-3-2-3 conceded away to top 5.
  • 0-1, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 in recent away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay any late 0-0. Will Chester be as tight as they have been recently? They do, though, tend to concede 2/3 goals away v top 5
  • Bristol Rovers are clearly the form side. What I would do if Chester score first is to back 0-1 as insurance given their recent 0-1 winsand lay Chester in the match odds market.
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15:00 UK Middlesbrough v Wigan - 1.5 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in recent head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 22nd in the Championship. Boro could go top with a win. Wigan need 3 points but 3 points will keep them bottom 3 but will give a glimmer of hope. What a come down for Wigan, premiership stalwarts for years. How sad.

Boro

  • 3 match home winning streak
  • No draw in 8 overall and in 9 at home
  • Only 3 losses at home v 12th, 13th and 19th.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 home matches v 15th and lower in the league.
  • Solid recent home goal scoring - 2-3-2-2-3-0-1-3-4
  • 3 recent defeats came away from home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home ( 37%)
  • 25 of 37 goals scored at home 2nd half so fear not a goal-less first half.
  • Scored first in 15 of 19 home matches.

Wigan

  • 4 match away winning streak is an eye-catcher given their current position.
  • Only 5 away wins, 2 were v 4th and 5th ( interesting), and 3 v 19th, 21st and 24th.
  • Unbeaten away v 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th
  • Wigan cannot buy a win at home so this away form is key to their survival.
  • 2 0-0's away
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Wigan's 4 match winning streak away and their ability not to lost v 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th makes this match less straightforward than the match odds would suggest.
  • If Boro have not scored first half, back them to score 2nd half - 25 2nd half goals at home.
  • Boro tend to keep clean sheets v 15th and lower but in the current away form Wigan are in, I would tend to lay Boro if they score first. We will get very short odds indeed and do remember the 2 draws in 2014. It is a speculative lay but value I feel while Wigan thrive away.
  • Lay any 0-0 halftime in the 2nd half.
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15:00 UK Shrewsbury v Dag and Red - 1.5 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recentl relevant head to head was a 0-1 Shrewsbury win
  • This is 2nd v 15th in League 2. Shrews go equal on points with 1st place if they win.

Shrewsbury

  • 3 match winning streak
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th.
  • All wins bar a draw v 12th and lower at home
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets
  • 2 0-0's at home
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home ( 43% of matches)
  • 22 of 36 goals scored 2nd half at home.

Dagenham

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • No draw in 5 away
  • Scored in their last 6 away
  • Only 3 wins away v teams above them in the league.
  • Solid v top 5, draws with 3rd and 5th away and win v 4th away
  • 4 wins in their last 5 away matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away ( 37%)
  • 18 scored and 16 conceded in 2nd half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Dagenham are actually not bad away to top 5 which makes me think they are not out of this. CAVEAT - I know nothing about League 2 and would not entertain this league were this not post-International break
  • If this is 0-0 at halftime, don't worry. I would expect goals as these 2 show 2nd half scoring and conceding.
  • I would lay Shrewsbury if they lead at hopeful very short odds.
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18:00 UK Guimaraes v Arouca - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • Guimaraes have scored at least 2 goals in the last 3 head to heads, winning 2 away and losing the home 2-3.
  • This is 5th v 16th in the Portugeuse Primera Liga

Guimaraes

  • Only 2 losses at home were 0-1 v 8th and 15th
  • Have struggled v bottom 4 at home, 0-1 loss, 2-2 draw and 3-0 win.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches was a 1-0 home win.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • The last 3 homes have been 1-0, 2 losses and a win
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • Tend to score most goals last 1/4 hour of each halves at home

Arouca

  • No win in 10 away
  • Conceding in their last 7 away
  • Against top 13 away, have lost 9, drawn 1 and won 1.
  • Failed to score away in 8 matches v top 12.
  • Lost home and away in 9 of 10 matches v top 6
  • Only 2 wins in 10
  • 4 of 6 wins this season were 1-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Guimaraes are in poor form, but they have only lost 2 at home and play an Arouca side with no win in 10 away, losing 9 of 11 played v top 13 away and failing to score in 8 v top 12. Further they have lost all bar 1 home and away v top 6, so respite from poor recent form it seems for Guimaraes today.
  • Do look for late goals. If 0-0 coming to 30th min first half, lay the 0-0 halftime score as Guimaraes tend to score last 1/4 hour heavily each half.
  • Ditto a 0-0 75th minute. Lay it. Or if Guimaraes are losing, lay Arouca at that time.
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7pm - Emmen v Fortuna Sittard  - 1.27 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 and 1-8 to Emmen in the last 2 head to heads in 2014
  • This is 6th v 18th in the Eredivisie. Sittard stay 3rd bottom with a win.

Emmen

  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 16 home matches.
  • All 3 defeats at home v top 5 only
  • 5-6-2-5 scored at home v top 5.
  • Scored 2+ goals at home v 9th and lower in the league.
  • 5-4-4-4-6-3-5-4-5-8-2-5-3-5-5 scored in total in recent home matches.
  • 75% over 3.5 goals at home
  • 81% both teams to score at home
  • No 0-0 at home

Fortuna Sittard

  • No win in 10 and in 5 away
  • 5 match losing streak away
  • Conceded in their last 9 away matches and last 6 away matches.
  • All wins bar 1 came v 15th and lower
  • Failed to score away v 5th-14th inclusive.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away matches
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Over 3.5 goals is highly likely in Emmen home matches. We have a home team scoring 2+ goals playing an away side failing to score in 6 of 8 away matches and 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Emmen tend to score and concede at home recently but Fortuna are poor at scoring.
  • Emmen should win this match . If Sittard score first, back Emmen at better odds.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in anticipation of goals.
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7pm - Volendam v Jong Twente  - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-4 Volandem and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 12th in the Eredivisie

Volendam

  • 4 match home winning streak
  • Scored in their last 15 home matches.
  • Losses at home v 1st and 2nd and 10th and 11th
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • No 0-0

Jong Twente

  • 2 match winning streak
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No draw away v teams above them in the league.v top 7 away , they have conceded 5-0-4-3-6
  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets since 3rd October.
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams to score has a great chance here.  Volendam should score at some stage so bear that in mind.
  • Lay any late draw as Jong tend not to draw v top 7 away.
  • Volendam should not lose today so that's another angle in. They are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
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7pm - Roda JC v Achilles 29  - 1.39 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-4 to Roda from earlier in the season.
  • This is 3rd v 15th in the Eredivisie

Roda

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 home matches.
  • Inconsistent at home v 11th and lower .3 losses, 3 wins and a draw.
  • No 0-0 at home

Achilles 29

  • No win in 8 away matches
  • Failed to score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 2 away wins
  • No win home or away v top 7.
  • 3 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No real angles in this match for me apart from the head to heads
  • Both teams to score has a chance based on Roda conceding readily in recent matches.
  • Achilles should not win so lay them if they score first.
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7pm - Almere City v Waalwijk  - 1.47 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent head to head was a 1-4 Almere City win.
  • This is 11th v 20th in the Eredivisie

Almere City

  • No win in 4 at home
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.
  • Wins v bottom 4 at home- 5-3-3 scored
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home

Waalwijk

  • No win in 13 away matches
  • Conceded in their last 11 and in their last 9 away
  • Only 1 win away
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Almere could score 3+ goals today if they are as good as they were against other bottom 4 sides at home
  • Both teams to score has a chance based on both side's recent form.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • This is Almere's match to lose. Lay Waalwijk if they score first.
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7pm - NEC Nijmegen v Sparta Rotterdam  - 1.44 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 last time these 2 met in the league. 0-2 lead for NEC there.
  • This is 1st v 9th in the Eredivisie- runaway leaders.

NEC

  • 11 match winning streak and 15 at home
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets at home.
  • All wins at home and only once failing to score 2+ goals.
  • 16 wins in their last 17 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 87% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 73% over 3.5 goals at home
  • No 0-0

Sparta

  • 3 match losing streak away
  • Not beaten any top 14 team away from home.
  • Only 1 win in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in their last 10 matches away
  • 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • NEC led 0-2 last time out before blowing it. It does show though that they have the 2+ goals in them you'd expect at home. If Sparta score first, therefore, back NEC at better odds.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score, such is the goals % from NEC.
  • Complacency the only worry for NEC but that has not stopped them winning 16 of 17 matches.
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19:30 UK Monaco v St Etienne - 2 home

Standout Stats

  • Win and draw St Etienne's favour in recent head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 5th in French Ligue 1 with Monaco having a game in hand. The title is mathematically within these 2 teams' grasps.

Monaco

  • 3 match winning streak, 1 at home
  • No defeat in 10 at home
  • 7 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • Only 2 home losses v 12th and 17th.
  • 0-0's at home v 1st, 2nd and 6th and a 1-0 win v 3rd. Likely to be tight for Monaco today.
  • Against top 10, Monaco have kept 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 11 clean sheets in their last 14 matches.
  • Have scored 3 goals in each of their last 3 matches
  • Only 2 losses in 21 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home ( 43%)

St Etienne

  • 3 match winning streak, 1 away
  • Scored in their last 5 matches
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • Losses away v 1st, 3rd, 6th and 14th.
  • Not the norm, but away v top 3, St Etienne conceded 5 and 2 goals.
  • BUT against 6th-14th inclusive away, St Etienne conceded only 1-0-1-0-0-0-0-1
  • Last 2 matches saw St Etienne score in the 88th and 90th minutes.
  • Scored 3-1-2-1-2-3-2 recently.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away ( 33%)

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This could be a very tight match. Monaco's foundation v top 10 is to keep a clean sheet and they are statistically more likely to today. I would back 0-0 pre match if the odds are reasonably big pre-match in the hope this is a defensively led match. St Etienne themselves are not averse to clean sheets but did concede 5 and 2 v 2 of the top 3 sides.  They have scored readily in recent matches. but 0-1-0 scored v 3 of the top 6 away in all defeats suggest we favour Monaco today.
  • 0-0 is really in play as I say, but I would lay the very late 0-0  - remember St Etienne have scored in the 88th and 90th minutes last 2 away matches.
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19:30 UK Genk v Zulte-Waregem - 1.67 home

Standout Stats

  • At least one team has scored 2 goals in the last 4 head to heads.
  • 2-2, 2-0 Zulte and 3-2 Genk in the last 3 head to heads
  • I am a little confused here. There don't seem to be any more games remaining in the Belgian Pro League.  What I can do is to snapshot how each team looks based on recent matches. I think this is part of the series of play-offs unique to Belgium

Genk

  • Genk ended 7th after 30 matches. they only lost 2 at home v 2nd and 4th,
  • Only 3 losses in their last 10 were 1-0, latterly v Anderlecht and Standard.
  • They beat Zulte 3-2 at home as recently as 7th March.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Zulte

  • Ended the season with no win in 8 and conceding 3-0-3-1-2-3-3-4
  • Only 1 away win v top 10
  • Scored and conceded in all away bar 1 v top 11.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score here. I will back 2-2 pre -match incase we get as exciting a match as we did as recently as 7th March.
  • On recent form, Genk have to be favoured here although as I say Zulte are likely to score at some stage.
  • This looks to be the play-offs now in the Belgian league.
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19:45 UK St Mirren v Celtic - 1.22 away BANKER

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive wins for Celtic in head to heads, scoring 9 in their last 3 matches.
  • This is 12th v 1st, bottom v top in the SPL.

St Mirren

  • 1 match home winning streak
  • No draw in 7 matches
  • Scored in their last 4 home
  • Have not scored more than 2+ goals in a home match in their last 10 home matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 wins in 21 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets all season
  • No 0-0
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home  ( 40% of matches)

Celtic

  • 5 match winning streak away
  • No draw in 10 away
  • Scored in their last 11 away
  • 9 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • 9 clean sheets in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 1-2 and 4-1 wins over St mirren this season.
  • Only conceded 1 goal in their last 5 aways
  • No 0-0 away
  • 12 first half and 13 second half goals scored away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Celtic have a match in hand at the top so complacency might be a concern. Head to heads are emphatic. I also see consistent clean sheetery from Celtic which suggests this is a good DRT match as St Mirren ideally should not get a look in. They are scoring though at home so a hope they score first. Celtic have averaged 3 goals v St Mirren per match this season so back Celtic if St Mirren score first.
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19:45 UK Cork City v Derry - 1.65 home

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive wins to nil for Cork in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 6th in the Irish Premier Division.

Cork

  • 3 wins and 2 draws so far.
  • 2 wins to nil at home .
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.

Derry

  • WLDLW ( W=Win, L=Loss, D=Draw) so inconsistent.Win draw Loss away from home
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last race.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not much to go on, but there is a pattern for clean sheets when these 2 meet, and clean sheets for Cork this season. Look to oppose Derry if they lead at any stage.
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20:30 UK Gil Vicente v Braga - 1.65 away

Standout Stats

  • Braga have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads.
  • This is 17th v 4th in the Portugeuse Primera Liga. Gil Vicente need points - they are 2nd bottom

Gil Vicente

  • No win in 5 matches
  • Only 2 wins v 6th and 18th.
  • Losses at home v 2nd, 3rd and 5th
  • Have only scored more than 1 goal in a single match once at home
  • Only 3 wins all season
  • Only 3 clean sheets
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 15 of 21 goals conceded 2nd half at home

Braga

  • No draw in 8 away matches
  • 4 of 7 losses were 1-0. lost 1-0 away to 13th and 16th.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 2 of those teams were Benfica and Porto.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away
  • 13 of 18 goals scored 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This could be a 2nd half match so no worries if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Braga are far more vulnerable away from home but with Gil Vicente failing to score more than 1 goal in home matches, you'd have to favour Braga , although they have lost 1-0 v 13th and 16th away.
  • Perhaps cover the 1-0 if Gil vicente score first and then lay them in the match odds market.
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