Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I keep getting seduced by the Europa League but then once it starts I remember why I don't like the competition. A huge swathe of lack-lustre performances last night. When the big name teams play, you wonder about their attitude to the competition. I do feel obligated to research it but prefer to focus on league football with stats and strong form lines. The league football returns tonight (hooray) along with our dutch friends.
I tried an over 1.5 goals accumulator last weekend which was I think 2 matches from success. I like to research the Dutch Eerste Divisie to, I hope, narrow our focus for both teams to score/over 2.5 goals/ goals before halftime which are the 3 main markets where profits are made from this goal-laden league.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Wolverhampton v Fulham - 1.94 Wolves

  • Wolves like meeting Fulham and have scored 3-3-4-3 in the last 4 head to heads. A more robust Wolves this season could do similar tonight.

Wolverhampton

  • 3 defeats, 2 came away.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 2 + goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 2nd in the league.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

Fulham

  • No win in 4.
  • A pattern of scoring and conceding in 9 matches ended in 0-2 defeat last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side but 5 draws in 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • Wolves should be eyeing a positive result tonight. I have not discounted the draw given Fulham's record v top 9.
  • Wolves have a strong 2nd half bias scoring and conceding wise so note that.
  • Wolves tend to score first so that may negate any angle in. I would certainly be keen to oppose any Fulham lead given their past scoring and conceding pattern.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Rennes v Bordeaux - 2.58 Bordeaux

  • I hope you are beginning to notice these odds. They suggest a match to leave alone. Always worth some investigation as the market can get it wrong.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.

Rennes

  • Only 3 wins. Did win their last 2 matches 1-0 only.
  • Those last 2 matches were the only clean sheets this season.
  • 0-0-1 scored in their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 home win v 2nd bottom at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bordeaux

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • The market tells us they cannot split the teams.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Slight nod towards Bordeaux based only on the fact that they have only 1 loss home and away v teams below them in the league (where Rennes are).

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - 1.78 Eintracht Frankfurt

  • 1-2 Frankfurt and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Werder Bremen are 2nd bottom currently and still unreliable this season.

Frankfurt

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came 1st match of the season.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 home matches.
  • No draw at halftime.
  • Not played the bottom 4 at home.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Werder Bremen

  • No win.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away draws, 2 1-1's and 2 consecutive 0-0's away.
  • All losses v top 9. All draws v 11th and lower. Play 10th today...

Conclusions

  • Werder are a shadow of their former selves. Frankfurt's form is what Werder's is normally. i.e. both teams scoring.
  • I will leave this match. Why? Well Frankfurt are 10th in the league. Werder have losses v top 9 and draws v 11th and lower. So where on earth will Frankfurt fit in?
  • On season long form I would be keener to side with Frankfurt winning than drawing.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen - 2.18 Heerenveen

  • 2-1 Sparta and 3-0 Heerenveen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 9th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Sparta

  • only 1 clean sheet.
  • 1-1-0-1-2 goals scored at home. When they scored 2 at home they won.
  • Only 2 wins at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side yet.

Heerenveen

  • 4 consecutive losses - the only losses this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Unbeaten v 8th and lower, scoring and conceding in each match.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Heerenveen here in a match where both teams could score and Heerenveen not lose.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Betis v Getafe - 2.04 Betis

  • 2 consecutive home wins in head to heads for Betis.

Betis

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 2 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss at home 3-6 v Valencia.
  • Have scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4 wins came v 12th and lower. Getafe are 11th.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Getafe

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away.
  • Only played 1 top 10 team away and won - Betis are 8th.

Conclusions

  • With Getafe there is a strong both teams to score pattern and I would lay Getafe if getafe score first given Betis keep scoring 2+ goals at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if a 0-0 at halftime. Betis score the vast majority 2nd half.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Almere City v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 2.06 Almere

Almere

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches, last 2 away.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches.
  • All defeats have come away v top 7.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Jong AZ

  • Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • 3 of 4 wins were 2-1.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Strong both teams to score pattern for both.
  • No clean sheets for either side and Jong Ajax love a first half goal. This should be a goal laden match.
  • I would like to back 2-1/1-2 as a trading angle here given the both teams to score slant.
  • It goes without saying to lay any late 0-0.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Den Bosch - 2.48 Dordrecht

  • A market suggesting an unappealing match.
  • 1-2 and 2-2 the last times Den Bosch visited.

Dordrecht

  • Only 3 wins, 2 came at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only in their last 2 away matches.
  • Both teams have scored in all home matches.
  • 4 home draws were score draws.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Den Bosch

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1's.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Bar a 3-2 v 4th away, Den Bosch have failed to score that 2nd goal in 4 away matches.
  • 5 of 6 away goals were scored first half.

Conclusions

  • We could see both teams score and an argument for laying the team which scores the first goal given Den Bosch have 2 consecutive 1-1 draws, and Dordrecht 4 score draws at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v FC Oss - 1.51 Fortuna Sittard

  • The home team tends to win to nil in recent head to heads.

Fortuna Sittard

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 of 3 defeats came v the current top 2.
  • Scored first in all home matches and led at halftime in 4/6 home matches.

FC Oss

  • Scored and conceded in 8/9 matches.
  • Failed to score only once. Conceded in all bar the first 2 matches of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Conceded all 7 goals away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Good both teams to score pattern. Despite Fortuna scoring first at home, Oss tend to score first away.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market despite Oss conceding all away goals 2nd half. Fortuna may out-tussle them with their leading at halftime in 4/6 stat.
  • Fortuna are more vulnerable to top sides (Oss are 5th) so this should be competitive.
  • I would delay my lay of the 0-0 in halftime score market incase Oss give some resistance (20th minute mark

19:00 - Helmond Sport v Emmen - 1.96 Emmen

  • Both teams have scored in 9/10 head to heads.
  • 3 consecutive Helmond wins ended with an Emmen away win last time.

Helmond

  • Only 1 win.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet. Failed to score only twice.
  • 1-1-1-1-0-1 scored at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • 9 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Emmen

  • Only 1 loss v the only team Helmond beat this season.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2-0 wins v 15th at home and 18th away and play 19th today.

Conclusions

  • 2 team 2nd bottom should be immediately opposable until showing the shoots of recovery. Emmen are drawing too many games but with only one loss all season are obvious contenders this evening and I will enter this match expecting Emmen to not lose.
  • Helmond are layable if scoring first. They cannot score that 2nd goal yet at home. They have conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v De Graafschap - 1.71 Jong Ajax

  • At least one team has scored 3+ goals in each of the last 4 head to heads.

Jong Ajax

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home (unbeaten).
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in 4/5 at home.

De Graaf

  • Only 1 loss.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Not played a top 10 team away - Ajax are 1st.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Some gaps in form. Ajax not met 6th-15th at home and play 6th today. De Graaf yet to meet top 10 away and meet 1st today.
  • So relatively unknown.
  • On what we have seen this season, both teams to score in Jong home matches. No 0-0 and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market BUT De Graaf tend to score 2nd half away.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v FC Eindhoven - 1.99 FC Eindhoven

  • 3-1 Utrecht in the last head to head.

Jong Utrecht

  • 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 home losses v top 6 and play 14th today.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Eindhoven

  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 1-0 wins v 18th and 20th and play 17th today.
  • Scored 6 goals in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • FC Eindhoven I think have a good chance of scoring today. That is the first angle.
  • FC Eindhoven can be very late scorers so if they are behind or the match is a draw coming to the 75th minute, you might want to take a chance on a late FC goal as per their stats.

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Waalwijk - 1.65 MVV

  • 1-1 last head to head.

MVV

  • All 4 defeats have come within the last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches came last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • 6 home goals scored within the first half hour of the match.

Waalwijk

  • Solitary win came last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. No away wins.
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If MVV score it is likely to be first half. If Waalwijk concede it is likely to be first half.
  • Waalwijk are layable if scoring first.

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v Cambuur - 1.88 NEC

NEC

  • 5 match winning run.
  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 wins and a draw in the last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Comfortable home wins v 14th and lower and play 15th today.
  • Scored first and led at halftime in all home matches.

Cambuur

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0.
  • All 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • NEC should be winning easier than a 1.88 odds quote suggests. 2/3 goals minimum from them today. They tend to score first and lead at halftime at home.
  • It does look straightforward so lay any Cambuur lead.

19:00 - Telstar v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.46 Telstar

Telstar

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3-3-0-3-4 goals scored at home in recent matches.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.

Go Ahead Eagles

  • 4 wins in 5 matches were the only wins this season.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded v top 6 without loss (Telstar are 4th).
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 have hit a good patch of recent form and the market is right. Arguments can be made for wither side.
  • We should on form expect goals and both teams scoring. Telstar love scoring and have had only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Note though that Go ahead have yet to lose v top 6 despite conceding.
  • Tough to call.

19:00 - Volendam v Jong PSV - 2.1 Volendam

  • 2-2, 1-0 Volendam, 2-0 PSV in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Volendam are currently bottom of the league.

Volendam

  • All defeats bar 3 draws.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not a strong both teams to score pattern at home.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong PSV

  • 2 consecutive wins ends a run of 5 without a win
  • only 2 clean sheets
  • not led at halftime away
  • all wins v 14th and lower

Conclusions

  • Bottom of the league are favourites? Jong PSV strictly have winning form v 14th and lower so I am confused.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches for Volendam suggests that this is not a typical Eerste Divisie match.