Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

French Ligue 1, and the English Championship begins today. The Championship is one of the most competitive leagues around and consequently not a league I tend to trade in. I want readable leagues. Monaco has ensured Falcao and Mbappe are here for another season. The F & M should see goals. I will try and be on Twitter @drtclub for the matches this evening. I want in particular to try out the Football Form Labs Live Logic tool. Will it enhance my live chats with you, the way in-play stats boosted the profits? We shall see.
The tennis is of interest but the times of the matches prohibits me from researching and trading. It's all down to the time zone difference.

19:45 - Sunderland v Derby - 2.76 Sunderland

  • The English Championship begins today. It is not a league I tend to trade quite simply because it is so competitive.
  • Sunderland are newly relegated and look unlikely to be as dominant as Newcastle were in this position last year.
  • Derby County finished 9th last year. They failed to beat a top 10 team away from home. Dare we assume Sunderland will be a top 10 team?
  • Sunderland has lost a number of key players such as Borini, Defoe, Janujaz so will be weakened in attack.

19:45 - Nottingham Forest v Millwall - 2.06 Forest

  • 21st in the Championship meets 6th from League One in this Championship match.
  • Millwall failed to beat a top 7 League One side away from home. Can we equate that with the lower reaches of the Championship?
  • Forest lost only 1 match at home v teams 16th and lower so a hint that they should be capable against a team from League One (albeit promoted now of course).
  • Slight favouring of Forest here but a complete unknown how Millwall will get on in the Championship.

19:45 - Monaco v Toulouse - 1.34 Monaco

  • French Ligue 1 begins today. It is a league in which I tend to follow only a handful of teams, such as PSG, Lyon, Monaco, and St Etienne. I am flexible of course in case any other team shows outstanding patterns as the season progresses.
  • Monaco has secured the services of Mbappe again this season after, no doubt, a few clubs knocking on their doors. Along with Falcao (a renewed Falcao) Monaco will be an attacking force again this season. 19 goals for Falcao and 15 for Mbappe shows you their signifcance.
  • Man City has plundered a couple of Monaco players. At home last season, Monaco won all matches bar 2, a loss to Lyon and a draw 2-2 with Guingamp. Monaco beat Toulouse 3-1 but lost 3-1 at Toulouse.
  • Monaco failed to score 2 goals only once at home last season.
  • Monaco kept 10/19 clean sheets at home last season.
  • Toulouse had only 3 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 13 last season so were deliberately set up to be defensive.
  • Toulouse failed to score 2 goals in an away match v the top 10 last season.
  • We should expect a Monaco win today with that attacking line up in tact. If Toulouse fail to score 2 goals, then they look naturally opposable if scoring first.

19:45 - Bohemians v Bray - 2.44 Bohs

  • 3-2 and 1-2 Bohs in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 5th in the Irish Premier Division.

Bohemians

  • Only 2 draws.
  • Only 1 win in 6 home matches.
  • Have lost to top 4 at home but did beat Bray 3-2 at home this season.

Bray

  • 6 defeats in 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least away v 4th, 6th and 7th.

Conclusions

  • We should expect Bray to concede. In fact they could concede 2 goals at least again. So the ideal for me would be a Bray 0-2 lead as I would be happy to lay them.
  • Both sides are in poor very recent form.
  • I would look to lay any late draw. Bray tends to avoid drawing away from home.

19:45 - Drogheda v Cork City - 1.26 Cork City

  • 1-4 and 5-0 Cork City in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is bottom v top in the Irish Premier Division.

Drogheda

  • 18 goals conceded in 4 matches v the top 2 home and away.
  • No win in 14 matches.
  • 6 defeats in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 9 of 12 matches.

Cork City

  • Ended an unbeaten run with a 0-1 v Bohemians last match. It was a successful trade as I backed 2-0 and 2-1. As Bohemians scored first, the 2-1 odds of 15.5 plummeted to around 6.5 to allow some profit taking.
  • That last match was the only match Cork City failed to score in.
  • Scored and conceded away v the bottom 3. Will the Drogs score?

Conclusions

  • We should not expect Cork to go 2 consecutive matches without scoring. So note that if 1-0 or 0-0 for a while.
  • Cork should go to town. If we look at the average for Drogs conceding v the top 4, then 4 goals at least is what we should expect from an optimum Cork City.

19:45 - Dundalk v Limerick - 1.34 Dundalk

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil for Dundalk in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.

Dundalk

  • Only 2 draws. Did draw their last match.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • All wins at home v 6th and lower.
  • Conceded only 1 goal in those matches.

Limerick

  • No draw in 7 away matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 4 team.

Conclusions

  • Limerick are not expected to win today.
  • Dundalk tend to keep clean sheets v teams 6th and lower. Expectation is for a win to nil for Dundalk.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.

20:00 - Finn Harps v Galway Utd - 2.34 Finn Harps

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Galway in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 11th in the Irish Premier Division.

Finn Harps

  • Only 3 draws.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 11 at home.
  • Only lost 1 home match v 6th and lower.

Galway United

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 12 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 12 away matches.
  • Lost away v top 5, all draws away v 6th and lower - all score draws.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score looks an obvious starting point. We have no draw in 9 at home playing all score draws v 6th and lower away.
  • Who will win the draw tussle? I do prefer congruity.
  • If Galway can deliver another 1-1, then backing 2-1 and 1-2 as a correct score trade could work. We profit on both scorelines by trading out at 1-1.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Derry - 2.62 Shamrock

  • 0-1 and 3-1 Derry in the 2 most recent head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division. The market cannot split the teams.

Shamrock Rovers

  • Only 2 draws.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 3 wins at home.
  • Loss, win, loss v top 3 at home.

Derry

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 away losses.
  • 0-0-1 goals scored away v top 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • Shamrock Rovers tend to weigh in with at least a goal so note that. Derry against the top 4 away from home tends not to score 2 goals so I would have to lay Derry if Derry scores first.

TENNIS

Again the USA dominates but the tennis tends to get going at about 20:00 and throughout the night. I will not research. In the ATP at Kitzbuhel Kohlschreiber takes on Fognini, and Ofner (Austrian in Austrian) takes on Sousa with Sousa a very strong favourite.
It is the Sousa match which is more identifiably tradable. Both Ofner and Sousa have collected 3 setters this ATP event and I would be keener to lay Ofner if Ofner wins the first set.