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Manchester United do what Manchester United do in first leg away fixtures. It is either 1-1 or, as yesterday, 0-1. I hope you played. It is the last match of the season in the Dutch Eerste Divisie and in some matches, the odds-on favourites could be gettable. For instance, the Champions are odds-on favourites away from home. I have only researched the odds-on favourites matches in Holland. And still a number of those matches are dead rubbers so caution advised.

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Waalwijk - 1.59 MVV

  • 2-0 Waalwijk last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 10th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
  • This is the last match of the season it seems. MVV could go 6th with a win but Waalwijk don't seem to gain anything with a win.

MVV

  • No win in 7 for MVV.
  • 7 draws and a win last 8 at home.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.

Waalwijk

  • Only 1 win in 7.
  • 4-0 and 5-0 losses last 2 away.
  • Only 1 win v top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Looks like a dead rubber. The market has gone with the home side's solid unbeaten form. Enough to lay Waalwijk if Waalwijk score first?

19:00 - FC Oss v De Graafschap - 1.56 De Graaf

  • FC Oss are safe from relegation in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
  • The market is asking us to back an away side with only 3 away wins.
  • Oss have 6 wins, a draw and a loss v 11th and lower at home and play 12th today.
  • As a bit of fun I will back 3-2/2-3 pre match as a trading vehicle in another dead rubber. I don't know why the market has slanted so heavily towards De Graaf.

19:00 - Telstar v VVV - 1.53 VVV

  • VVV are Champions in the Dutch Eerste Divisie if this is the last match of the season so this is a dead rubber and watch out, they'll be on the Hoegaarden!
  • Telstar are yet to beat a top 5 side, have only 1 win home and away v top 11 sides.
  • VVV clean sheets in 4 of 5 away v 15th and lower.
  • Dead rubbers? Don't trust em! Champions already? Where's the motivation?

19:00 - Emmen v Jong Utrecht - 1.57 Emmen

  • 3-1 Jong in the last head to head.
  • This is 9th v 18th in the Eerste Divisie. Only 1 relegation spot I believe so both sides are safe. A dead rubber.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 for Emmen.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 at home v 15th and lower.
  • Jong Utrecht are poor away. Only 1 win. They conceded in all aways.
  • Jong scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 away, winning only one.
  • Remember this is a dead rubber. On form, the probability is that Jong will not win, even if they score.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Helmond Sport - 1.43 FC

  • 3-0 Helmond the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 13th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
  • Another dead rubber. The market has sided with FC because of their 8 wins and a loss at home v 10th and lower. They have scored and conceded and won all bar 1 at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Helmond beat 9th and 12th away but those were the only away wins v teams above them in the league. 7 consecutive away defeats for Helmond.
  • Dead rubber alert! Again on form, it seems FC Eindhoven should win, even if conceding a goal.

19:30 - FC Koln v Werder Bremen - 2.42 FC Koln

  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-0 the last 3 times Werder have visited FC Koln.
  • This is 8th v 6th in the German Bundesliga.
  • 3 matches remain and nothing really can be garnered by either side winning the remaining matches.

FC Koln key stats

  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only lost one match at home at halftime.
  • Only lost at home to 1 top 7 side, albeit with 3 draws, a 4-2 and 3-0 on either side of Werder.
  • Only 2 home defeats.

Werder Bremen stats

  • Brilliant ending to the season. 9 wins and 2 score draws.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Both teams have scored at least 2 goals in each of the last 3 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 26 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • A dead rubber so tough to evaluate mentality. Stats wise, Werder are probably THE form side in Germany very recently. If form continues, they are highly likely to score.
  • Please remember dead rubber status if playing. I would back 2-2 pre match as a trading angle if Werder's recent away form continues.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - St Etienne v Bordeaux - 2.7 St Etienne

  • 3-2 Bordeaux and 1-4 St Etienne in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 5th in French Ligue 1.
  • 4 matches left for St Etienne and 3 left for Bordeaux.
  • 4th spot is open to both sides if they want it.

St Etienne stats

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 2 home defeats were 0-1.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home.
  • 1-0-2-0-1-1-1 scored v top 10 at home.
  • 15 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Bordeaux stats

  • 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 4th-10th inclusive.
  • In 7 of 8 matches away v top 10, Bordeaux scored more than 1 goal in a match only once.
  • 15 goals scored away in last half hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Is 4th spot enough of a motivator for these 2 sides?
  • Both teams have a strong 2nd half scoring stat so I would look at a 0-0 halftime and oppose a 0-0 second half.
  • I would lay Bordeaux if Bordeaux scored first given they have only managed to score more than 1 goal once away v top 10. St Etienne's conceded goals at home tend to come first half so no real surprises if Bordeaux score first.

20:00 - West Ham Utd v Tottenham Hotspur - 1.45 Tottenham

  • Note that this is a London Derby.
  • 1-0 West Ham the last time Spurs visited. 3-2 Tottenham last head to head.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the Premier League. Tottenham are 4 points shy of Chelsea so full speed ahead!
  • West Ham are 7 points clear of the relegation zone.
  • 3 matches left for West Ham and 4 matches remaining for Tottenham. A win sees West Ham safe from relegation.

West Ham stats

  • Not beaten a top 8 team home or away.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal in a match at home v top 7 teams.
  • Only 2 wins home and away v top 13 teams.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Tottenham stats

  • 9 consecutive wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 defeat since 14th December 2016.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • All wins bar a 0-0 v teams 12th and lower home and away.
  • 18 of 26 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Do bear in mind that this is a London derby and strange things can happen in a derby. That said, on form, it really does all point to the boys from Tottingham. West Ham have not beaten a top 8 side. When they score, they cannot get that 2nd so are vulnerable if leading.
  • Tottenham are winning and keeping clean sheets. I expect an away win.
  • Note the strong 2nd half scoring for both sides so any 0-0 at halftime is opposable 2nd half.

20:00 - Sevilla v Real Sociedad - 1.8 Sevilla

  • After 3 consecutive Real Sociedad head to head wins, Sevilla won the last head to head 0-4. Emphatic and against the tide of previous head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 7th in Spanish Primera Liga. 3 matches remain this season. Top 4 is possible but improbable for Sociedad. It is all systems go for Sevilla who have an excellent chance of finishing top 3 if they continue to win.
  • The market is luke warm towards them today. 1.8 odds implies a likely win but leaning more towards a draw and one-goal-in-it win if there is to be a win. For me the greater motivation is with Sevilla.

Sevilla stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, nearly half of matches.
  • Only loss at home was v 1st in the league.

Real Sociedad stats

  • 4 wins in 5 matches. Lost in a 3-2 v Barcelona recently.
  • Last 2 aways saw a 1-0 v Atl Madrid and 3-2 v Barcelona.
  • Only 2 clean sheets since 29th January.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 11 matches.
  • No draw in 17 away.
  • Lost all away v top 8 conceding 2/3 in all bar 1 of those matches.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Motivation will be high with Sevilla. A top 3 spot while Atl Madrid are distracted by the Champions League, would be very nice thank you.
  • First thing to note. Real have not had a 0-0 this season. A rare breed. So lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw too if Real can continue to avoid the away draw.
  • Real keep losing to the top 8 so Sevilla know that they are capable of the win and have 3 wins in a row scoring 2 goals at least and 5 wins in 7. I am with Sevilla and do not expect Sevilla to lose.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Real. It is 50/50 with Sevilla.