Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The big winners this weekend? They did not appear in the Daily Bulletin! The big winner yesterday was a lay of Union Berlin at 1.05 0-2 up. The key to success there was the reading of the in-play stats. So mark that! Learn to read the in-play stats and you can make informed lays with a 20/1 payout. I loved my 3-2 / 2-3 call in the Everton v Leicester match. Huge odds for those scorelines. And both scorelines could be traded out at 2-2. A new strategy on the horizon here with possible Both Teams to Score matches?
I'll be reviewing a few winners and losers at the DRT Facebook page during the week. I hope it will help you see the thought processes.
A very quiet day today. It's that time of the season where we have 2 strong favourites today but 2 opponents who need those 3 points! Do we go 'on form' or react in case these outsiders pull off an unlikely win (see Crotone yesterday v Inter Milan for instance and so nearly Darmstadt).

19:45 - Sociedad v Sporting Gijon - 1.54 Sociedad

  • 1-3 Sociedad in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 18th in the Spanish Primera Division.

Sociedad 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All home defeats v top 7 sides only.

Sociedad other stats

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.

Sporting Gijon 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 16 side away.

Sporting Gijon other stats

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Led only once at halftime away.
  • 2-1 losses v 7th, 9th and 10th away.

Conclusions

  • It does look clear cut....but it is that time of the season where teams who need points tend to rise to the challenge. So, as with the Arsenal match, 'on form' Sociedad only lose to top 8 so should not be losing today. Note the 2-1 defeats for Gijon v 7th, 9th and 10th - that is my guide scoreline. Gijon must be opposed if scoring first.
  • Gijon can still stave off relegation but must win today.
  • Prepare for a potential shock but on form, Sociedad really should not lose.

20:00 - Crystal Palace v Arsenal - 1.81 Arsenal

  • This is a London Derby and we know what Palace pulled off in their last London Derby.
  • 1-1 and 2-0 Arsenal in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 6th in the English premiership and rather like Leicester under the Great Bard, we should focus on Palace under Big Sam only - that's 13 games.

Palace 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats at home v top 8 sides.

Palace other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins ended with a loss v Southampton.
  • No draw in 12 matches under Big Sam. Only 3 over 2.5 goals in 9 matches.
  • 3 0-1 defeats and 2 1-2 defeats amongst the losses v top 8 at home. TIGHT matches.

Arsenal 100% stats

  • All Arsenal away defeats v top 8 sides.
  • 3-5 goals scored away v teams 14th and lower.

Arsenal other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 3-1 defeats away but as I say that was the top 8.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Big Sam is yet to meet a Top 6 side at home. He did though beat a Top 6 side away recently.
  • Let me get the 'on form' conclusions out of the way. On form, Arsenal should be scoring 3 + goals v a team 14th and lower away from home. They should put an end to 3 consecutive away defeats - away defeats which come exclusively against a top 8 side. On form, Palace lose to top 6 sides, albeit they defeats tend to be by a single goal, say a 0-1 or a 1-2.
  • Now the 'on form' is out of the way, note what Palace did to Chelsea as a possible template today with home advantage. Big Sam has avoided the draw so lay any late draw. It seems to be a by-product of his management!
  • 2-1/1-2 looks an interesting angle. What do you think? Given what Palace achieved at Chelsea.
  • Are you 'on form' or do you sense a Big Sam shock result?