An excellent, brief live chat yesterday. I spotted an underdog 0-2 lead at halftime and was taken a) by the soccerstats form for Leixios 0-2 down and b) by the inplay stats for Leixios which suggested they could get back. So I layed their opponents and backed Leixios. 3-2 it ended for a profit with the lay and a 19.5 profit from a pre match 1.67 shot! Ker ching. If only all live chats could produce a similar return in such a short space of time!
A relatively quiet Monday today with the Italians needing a result or it will not be their Dolmio Day. It is a match I think where we expect Italy to bring the leg into parity but they simply cannot score that 2nd goal recently. The tennis looks niggly. Thiem is out of form but 4 in the world. Nadal withdrew from the Paris Masters. We need to know why. Injury? Tiredness? Ordinarily his odds would be 1.1 against Goffin. They are 1.3 today.
19:45 - Italy v Sweden - 1.56 Italy
- We take our cues from the first leg which sees a Sweden 1-0 lead. That was not wholly unexpected given the poor showing by the Italians in attack and their rather uncharacteristic concession of goals.
- Note yesterday's 2nd leg matches were 0-0's and that is reasonably what today's could be until the second half. With so much at stake.....
- But this is Italy, at home, and there will be a National Outcry if they do not take their place in Russia.
- 3 1-0's and a 1-1 Italy last 4 matches saw 2 1-0 wins and a 1-0 loss. It is simply not good enough as the Swedes could put this tie to bed with a goal, then revert to a 10-0-0 formation.
- 1-0 v Israel and 1-1 v Macedonia for Italy at home last 2 qualifiers again sees them punished for not scoring that 2nd goal.
- Sweden are yet to draw in World Cup qualifiers -will that continue today?
- Italy may see hope in Sweden's 3 defeats in 4 away matches, losing to France, Bulgaria and the Netherlands.
- If you recall, Croatia were 1.46 odds and battered the Greeks. There is a feeling that the market is getting these World Cup 2 legged matches correct. I would expect Italy to up the shots stats today so a 0-0 pre match back, although good evidence for it, might be vulnerable.
- The problem Italy have is upfront. There is no Toto Schillaci, Inzaghi, Del Piero for instance, no standout goal poacher for the Italians.
- I would not expect the Italians to lose. I would expect them to make it extremely difficult for Sweden to score. And a look at away form sees the Swedes very vulnerable to conceding.
ATP TOUR FINALS - TENNIS
Bang on the money yesterday. I mentioned in research that we we likely to see Jack Sock take the second set to a tie breaker. Indeed he did. In future, with such as short priced favourite as Federer, we would have seen a tradable swing in the 2-0 Federer set betting odds so that is something to think about. Laying Fed in the match odds at 1.04 only saw it rise to 1.07 so that was the wrong choice. Zverev v Cilic rather inevitably went to 3 sets as predicted. I hope you either backed 2-1/1-2 pre match or layed the first set winner. And it went to form to as Zverev continued his dominance over Marin Cilic.
Dominic Thiem v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.49 Dimitrov
- 4th v 6th in the world and the market is sweet on Grigor.
- The last 2 head to heads were 3 setters and shared between both players.
- The favourite has won the last 2 head to heads.
- 6 losses in 8 for Thiem sees him off the boil or simply not good on hard surfaces?
- Semi, quarters, Final and 2nd round for Grigor.
- It is obvious that Thiem is out of form but Dimitrov's odds do simply look too short for me in a top 6 in the World clash.
- No strong angle bar laying Grigor if Grigor wins the first set. In fact, lay the first set winner? Watching brief ideally as Thiem looks a little out of form.
Rafael Nadal v David Goffin - 1.3 Nadal
- You know my initial thoughts here? 1.3 will have the big hitters out in force. It looks a big price against the some-time flaky Belgian.
- But the odds may mask something. Check for any recent injury niggles for Nadal.
- Nadal won the 2 2017 head to heads albeit on clay.
- Now I see why Rafa's odds are a little tentative. He did not play in the quarter finals in the Paris Masters, his last match and that the market does not know what to make of it.
- I would have to be very wary about Rafa today. The reason given at tennis explorer is 'walkover'. Normally they specify the reason for the absence.
- A case of faith in Rafa today although I cannot be fully with him given that question mark.