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Another score draw in Man Utd v Stoke? I would lay any late score draw today. New caretaker manager for Stoke. Man City loss yesterday. Man Utd win brings 3 points closer. In Spain, I would focus on the strong 2nd half scoring of both sides so take on any 0-0 at halftime. In Portugal, on form Estoril are likely to concede 2 goals so that is a ready angle. I do hope they 'do a Sociedad' and take a 2-0 lead only for Porto to recover as Barcelona did yesterday.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Man Utd v Stoke - 1.23 Man Utd

  • 1-1, 1-1, 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Remember no Mark Hughes at Stoke.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 draws ended with a win last match.
  • 4 of the last 5 matches saw United score 2 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st.
  • Not played the bottom 3 at home.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Stoke City (18th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats away v top 9.
  • 7-2-3-4-5-5 goals conceded v top 5 teams.

Conclusions

  • I would take a chance and lay any late score draw and hope that sequence in head to heads will end.
  • No manager for Stoke so a niggle there. Will they suddenly improve under the caretaker manager Eddie Niedzwiecki.
  • On form, Stoke City concede heavily v top 5 teams in defeat. Will they concede 3+ goals today. That is an angle. Remember Man Utd have scored and conceded recently We would ideally want Stoke to score first in order to back Man Utd at enhanced odds.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Betis v Leganes - 2.24 Betis

  • 2-0 Betis and 4-0 Leganes in the last 2 head to heads.

Betis (13th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches came 2nd half.
  • 2 draws and 2 losses in the last 4 at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Playing 12th today and have 2-2 scorelines v 8th and 9th, 2-1 win v 10th and 0-2 loss v 11th.
  • Have scored 2 goals at least in 7 of 8 matches outside the top 6 at home.
  • 14 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leganes (12th)

  • 3 1-0 losses and a 0-0 last 4 matches, 2 were defeats.
  • Failed to score in the last 4 away matches.
  • 4 1-0 losses and 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • v 11th and lower, home and away, 4 1-0 wins, a 0-0, 1-0 loss and 2 0-2 wins.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would note the 2nd half scoring for both sides. If 0-0 at halftime, I would take that 0-0 on in the 2nd half.
  • Leganes matches v 11th and lower tend to see only 1 team scoring. Betis threaten 2 goals at home outside the top 6.
  • If Betis continue their scoring, then they must be favoured. The niggle? We saw yesterday with Alaves and Angers that defensive sides can stifle attacking sides from scoring a 2nd goal.
  • Note also Leganes are adept at 1-0 wins. So I would like to lay Leganes if they scored first but realise they have had many 1-0 wins.
  • I will stick to the halftime angle only. If 0-0 at halftime, I would expect a 2nd half goal at least.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

19:00 - Moreirense v Setubal - 2.3 Moreirense

  • Not a match I am keen to trade in , but on a quiet day, I will research.
  • Setabul are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads.

Moreirense (16th)

  • Bottom 3 side. Reliable?
  • Only 3 wins but 2 wins came within the last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 at home, 3 of those matches were 1-1.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Playing a fellow bottom 3 side. Away from home, win, draw, win v bottom 4. Can that translate to home form?
  • All 5 home goals scored first half.

Setabul

  • 2 consecutive score draws ends a run of 6 defeats.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 8 away matches.
  • No away win, and not led at halftime away.
  • Opponents scored first in 7/8 away.

Conclusions

  • Bottom 4 sides. We saw in France yesterday that Toulouse could not be trusted (strugglers in France) so note the league position for these 2.
  • They are not bottom 4 because they are reliable.
  • Both sides have conceded in their last 12 matches for goodness sake. I would lay any late 0-0 on that basis.
  • I am not keen on this match but would make an argument for Moreirense. Why? Well based on 2 wins and a draw v bottom 4 teams AWAY from home, surely they will be more competitive with home advantage?
  • Were that to play out, Setabul should be layed if scoring first. After all, only 1 clean sheet all season for them and no win away yet.

21:00 - Estoril Praia v Porto - 1.24 Porto

  • 6 consecutive Porto wins in head to heads.
  • 4-0 Porto last match.

Estoril (18th)

  • Only 3 wins required 3 goals to be scored.
  • In 6 of their last 7 matches at home, Estoril conceded 2 goals at least.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 5 but not yet played top 4 at home.
  • All losses to nil at home v the top 8 they have played.

Porto (2nd)

  • Go top with a win.
  • Came from 0-1 down to win 4-2 last match.
  • Failed to score only twice and being unbeaten all season, those 2 matches were 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Yet to concede 2 goals in a match away.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home.

Conclusions

  • On form, Estoril are likely to concede 2 goals. So if they score first, I would look to back Porto.
  • If Estoril are to win it is likely to be 3-2 but they have to beat a Porto who have not conceded 2 goals in any away matches.
  • Porto on form should win today 3-4-5 goals scored v the bottom 3 so the potential is there for another 3+ goal haul from Porto.