Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It is a quiet day today. The Rome Masters begins today in the tennis and I will be tweeting @drtclub any potentially exploitable shocks. Berdych, Goffin, Bedene, druggie Sharapova, and Tsurenko are some of the ones on my shortlist. I cannot give you accurate times for the tennis as they do not tend to run to a fixed schedule.

18:00 - Djurgarden v IFK Goteborg - 2.1 Djurgarden

  • 3 - Djurgarden the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 8th v 10th in the Swedish Allsvenskan and the league is 7 matches old.
  • Djurgarden's 2 defeats this season have come v the current top 2. Their 3 wins came v teams currently 11th and lower.
  • Djurgarden have scored 3 goals in 2 of their 3 home matches.
  • 3-2-1-3-4 goals scored by Djurgarden in recent matches.
  • Only 1 loss for Goteborg.
  • 4 1-1 draws for Goteborg.
  • Goteborg beat the current 2nd away but lost away v 5th and drew away v 9th.

Conclusions

  • Goteborg will usually be vying for the title but it is a tardy start. I like Djurgarden's goal scoring and I would lay IFK if IFK scored first.

18:00 - Bursaspor v Besiktas - 1.3 Besiktas

  • Besiktas have won 6 of their last 7 head to head.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • Besiktas go top with a win.
  • 4 matches remain this season. Bursaspor have an 8 point gap to relegation and need a win at least in their remaining matches to stay up. That may not happen today.
  • 5 defeats in 6 for Bursaspor.
  • 11 defeats in 15 matches for Bursaspor.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Bursaspor since 25th November 2016.
  • 5-5-6 goals conceded in recent matches.
  • Bursaspor have lost all 3 v the top 2 this season, albeit tight matches - 0-1, 1-0 and 2-1.
  • Only 3 defeats for Besiktas puts favouritism firmly with them today.
  • 3-3-3-1 1 scored by Besiktas in recent matches.
  • Besiktas failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • All wins for Besiktas v 15th and lower and v 13th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Besiktas should be winning on form today and score 3 goals at least. Bursaspor may have t wait for their win.
  • We might strangely see a defensive over reaction from Bursaspor today to conceding 16 goals in their last 3 matches.
  • Do note Bursaspor's tight defeats v the top 2, if the match is 0-0 for a while and keep faith in Besiktas eventually scoring and pushing on.

20:00 - Chelsea v Watford - 1.28 Chelsea

  • This is a dead rubber.
  • 1-2 Chelsea when these 2 last met. Chelsea are Champions. Will we see a drop in motivation now the title is won, as we see with Bayern?
  • Watford look safe. If they lose their remaining 2 matches and Hull win their remaining 2 matches, Watford will have superior goal difference.
  • A simple solution for Watford is to draw one of their 2 remaining matches.
  • 3 clean sheets plays failed-to-score in 4 matches. This should be a win to nil for Chelsea.
  • This is not Chelsea's last home match, that comes next v Sunderland.
  • No draw in 10 for Watford and no draw in 17 at home for Chelsea.
  • Chelsea have scored in their last 17 home matches and Watford conceded in their last 13 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Ideally Watford want a draw from their remaining 2 matches. They are though not scoring and Chelsea, even in celebratory mood, could score 2 goals at least again in their 3rd consecutive match.
  • Do remember this is a dead rubber. We might see Suggs from Madness up front for Chelsea.