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A quiet day today. The Big Sam discipline is kicking in for Everton and they should eye a positive result today. Malaga have hit a run of 2 wins and a draw at home. Will that momentum continue? Porto do look a bit short v Maritimo given there is no strong collateral form. Maritimo's inability to score a 2nd goal in recent away matches should see Porto eye the win which sees 1st place. 14 goals in 4 home matches for Fenerbahce and they take on a team with 11 losses in 12. Surely not even Fener could cock this up? Konyaspor love scoring....albeit in generally a 2-1 defeat away. Goztepe to serve it up?
Interesting matches with interesting angles. I just hope these teams have not been on the mulled wine as the likes of Leipzig (losing to 10 men), Celtic (hammered by a team who struggled v top 9) and Milan (put to the sword by Verona).

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Everton v Swansea - 1.81 Everton

  • New manager for Everton so past head to heads are irreleveant.

Everton (10th)

  • 3 games in charge for Big Sam.
  • 2-0 win v Huddersfield, 1-1 away v Liverpool and 0-1 win away v Newcastle.
  • I would equate Swansea with your Huddersfields' and Newcastles'.
  • That's 3 clean sheets in 4 matches now. A clear Big Sam stamp.

Swansea (20th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Swansea have scored 2 goals only once away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 4 of 5 matches away v top 12.

Conclusions

  • The positive Big Sam effect should continue today. A tightening defensively should see Everton clear v a Swansea side having trouble even scoring.
  • Do lay the Swans if they score first.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Malaga v Betis - 2.14 Malaga

  • 1-0 and 1-2 Betis in the last 2 head to heads.

Malaga (19th)

  • Struggling but vast improvements at home.
  • Win, Win Draw in the last 3 home matches.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets  were the only clean sheets this season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Very positive home results v 12th and lower sees 2 wins, 2 draws and a single loss.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Betis (14th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 was v newly promoted Alaves.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats contrasts with Malaga's home form.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 1-0 away defeats v 16th and 20th.

Conclusions

  • On very recent form it's 2 wins and a draw versus 3 consecutive away defeats and failing to score in 3/4.
  • On that very recent form, Malaga should be eyeing a positive result. Betis though have only lost 1-0 v 16th and 20th away so are nearly there in terms of getting a positive result themselves.
  • Malaga's momentum at home may see them through. It is v 12th and lower at home that they pick up points. Were this being played at Betis I would be with Betis but must lay Betis here if Betis score first.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

21:00 - Porto v Maritimo - 1.14 Porto

  • 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 last 3 head to heads. Maritimo to niggle?

Porto (2nd)

  • A chance to go top/equally top with a win today.
  • Unbeaten.
  • 0-0 last home match was v big 3 team Benfica.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches and those ended up as 0-0.
  • Prior to that 0-0, Porto had been scoring 2+ goals at home in wins.
  • Only played one of the top 8 at home and that was a 0-0 v 3rd.
  • Scored first 6/7 at home and led at halftime 5/7 at home.

Maritimo (5th)

  • 1-1-1-1 scored in recent away matches resulted in 2 defeats, a 1-1 and a 0-1 win.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Actually unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Not met top 6 away so nothing to gauge their set up against the best.
  • Losses away v 7th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • No form to gauge these 2 i.e. Porto only played one of the top 8 and Maritimo are yet to play a top 6 team away.
  • That can present a problem as sometimes teams set up differently v the top 3 than they would other sides.
  • On what we have available this may be tighter than a 1.14 quote (3/4 goals from Porto).
  • Maritimo are layable if scoring first. They have only scored 1-1-1-1 recently away. On season form, we should expect 2+ goals from Porto today in a bid to go top.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:00 - Fenerbahce v Karabukspor - 1.28 Fenerbahce

  • 4-3-2-5 goals scored by Fenerbahce in recent head to heads.

Fenerbahce

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 3 draws and 4 wins last 7 matches. 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 3-3-4-4 scored in recent home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not met bottom 7 at home.
  • 2 wins away v bottom 3.

Karabukspor

  • 11 losses in 12 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • Only played one of the top 7, a 3-2 loss to Galatasary.

Conclusions

  • On all known form, Fenerbahce should continue scoring 2+ goals and engineer the win. Karabukspor are in free fall. They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away and have 11 losses in 12 matches.
  • They did beat 1st in the league at home and run Galatasary close away but recent form is really poor.

17:00 - Goztepe v Konyaspor - 2.14 Goztepe

  • No recent head to heads.

Goztepe

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 2 losses at home came v 1st and 3rd.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match at home.

Konyaspor

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets came in those wins. IF they concede, then they should not win.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 5 2-1 defeats away.
  • Conceded 2 goals in all bar 1 match away v top 11 - failed to score in only one of those matches.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a very strong pattern here and it seems that Konyaspor can score but in a 1-1 or 2-1 away from home.
  • That is how I will follow this one. If Konyaspor scores first, the market expects Goztepe to equalise and probably push on.
  • Surely another 2-1 defeat for Konyaspor is a little too obvious?