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A mixed bag today, usually the case in European club competition weeks. The Spanish and German matches see the market finding it tough to split the teams. Man City play an inform Wigan. Let's hope for a 2-3 kind of affair like City v Bristol City or even some fun as per Rochdale and Spurs!
Sporting Lisbon were dire away to bottom side Estoril last away match. Recompense today? And will our Dutch friends in the Eerste Divisie serve us up their usual variety of goals?

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Frankfurt v Leipzig - 2.78 home and away side

  • Match odds which tell us to 'run away, run away' but as the only representative of the German Bundesliga I will research it.
  • 3-0, 2-2, 2-1 in Leipzig's favour in recent head to heads.

Frankfurt

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league at home. 2 2-2 draws.
  • 1-2-1-2-2 goals conceded at home v 8th and higher.
  • 10 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

RB Leipzig (4th)

  • Only 6 defeats all season so I would have expected shorter odds.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would speculatively back 2-2 here today looking at Frankfurt v 8th and higher, and Leipzig's concessions v top 9.
  • Remember, folks, that 2.78 for both sides tells you that the market cannot split these 2 teams.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Lazio v Verona - 1.24 Lazio

  • 4 consecutive Lazio wins in head to heads.

Lazio (5th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 7/11 at home.

Hellas Verona (19th)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Lazio should score first and negate any trade. Verona tend to lose to top 5 so if scoring first, remember that.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Getafe v Celta Vigo - 2.56 Getafe

  • Another match where the market cannot split the teams but I will research as it is the only Spanish La Liga match.
  • 0-1 Celta and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Getafe

  • 4 draws and 2 consecutive 0-0's and 0-0 sequences are worth taking on.
  • Unbeaten in their last 5 and last 8 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (10th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 12 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 wins away v 7th, 12th, 17th, 18th and 19th.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of 12 matches.

Conclusions

  • I would certainly take on the 0-0 if 0-0 late on. These sequences tend to end.
  • Looking at Celta, the 0-0 could end before halftime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Other than that, tough to pick a side.

ENGLISH F.A.CUP

19:55  - Wigan v Manchester City - 1.17 Man City

  • This is the F.A.Cup.
  • Wigan have been in giant-killing mode this F.A.Cup.
  • 2-2 v Bournemouth, 3-0 v Bournemouth at home and 2-0 v West Ham at home, good stuff for Wigan but remember that they are playing much-changed teams.
  • Man City beat Burnley and Cardiff most recently.
  • No Champions League distractions for City until the 7th March 2018. They have 2 consecutive matches v Arsenal coming up.
  • Recently, at these odds, City have beaten Bristol City in the League cup 2-3, beat Cardiff away 0-2 so they are expected to score 2/3 goals today.
  • Team news of interest for City. Will that field a stronger side today than usual? If not, Wigan could give them a game.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Jong PSV - Den Bosch - 1.72 Jong PSV

  • 0-0 AND 5-0 Den Bosch in the last 2 head to heads.

Jong PSV (6th)

  • Only 1 draw since 29th September 2017.
  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 3rd, 16th and 19th.
  • 18 of 28 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Den Bosch (10th)

  • 2 consecutive wins ends a run of 6 without a win.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side away but tight matches 1-0, 1-0, 2-2, 3-2, 1-1, 1-1.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay any late draw and hope Jong PSV continue to avoid draws.
  • Den Bosch have kept it a draw or one-goal loss v teams above them so note that today. I would take on any 0-2 Den Bosch lead given those 2-2 and 3-2 results away v top 9.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v Oss - 1.25 Jong Ajax

  • 4 consecutive Jong Ajax wins in head to heads.

Jong Ajax (1st)

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 4 and in their last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Did beat Oss 0-3 away from home.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 8/11 at home.

FC Oss (9th)

  • 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 2+ goals conceded in those 3.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away from home, but note 4 score draws and a loss.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 19 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Conflicting halftime patterns. I would see Jong Ajax leading at halftime but FC Oss have conceded 19 of 23 away goals in the 2nd half.
  • That middies the waters. Given FC Oss tend towards score draws away v top teams then they look layable even if leading 0-2.

20:00 - Tondela v Sporting Lisbon - 1.45 Sporting Lisbon

  • 1-4 and 2-0 Sporting in the last 2 head to heads.

Tondela (11th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost all matches v top 5.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sporting Lisbon (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss came last away match v Estoril.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away; 5 0-1 wins at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Sporting were very poor last away match v Estoril, losing 2-0. They are more vulnerable away but meet a Tondela with losses v top 5 teams.
  • Tondela have scored and conceded in their last 6 at home so lay them if they score first. Sporting have conceded in their last 5 away.

ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

19:45 - Blackburn v Bury - 1.55 Blackburn

  • Blackburn are a team I have latched onto of late.
  • 0-3 Blackburn the last time these 2 met.

Blackburn (3rd)

  • Top 3 but 2 games more played than 2nd in the league.
  • Only 1 loss since 17th October 2017.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 13 at home.
  • Scored in their last 13 at home and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 4-3-2-2 goals scored in wins v bottom 3.

Bury (23rd)

  • Unbeaten in 5 with 3 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.
  • 4 and 3 goals conceded away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • On form, Blackburn should be scoring 2-4 goals today in a win. A nice easy angle in.