I thought it was a profitable weekend's live chat. I hope you did too. The last 3 matches, Roma, Barcelona and Paris St Germain all saw profitable trading angles. There will be no live chat this coming weekend. I will take the opportunity presented by the International Break to have a rare weekend off!
Today's football is barren to say the least. I will pick 3 matches which have liquidity and hope that there is an angle.
17:30 - Platanias v Iraklis - 1.97 Platanias
- 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 the last 3 head to heads.
- This is 7th v 15th (of 16) in the Greek Super League.
Platanias 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
Platanias other stats
- 6 wins and 3 draws last 9 home matches.
- 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
- Scored 3 goals in a game on 5 occasions at home v teams below them in the league.
Iraklis 100% stats
- Not won at halftime away.
- Not beaten any side above them in the league away from home.
- Failed to score 2 goals away v top 11.
- No over 4.5 goals matches.
Iraklis other stats
- Only 2 wins.
- Failed to score last 3 aways.
- No draw in 9 away.
- Failed to score in 7 of 8 matches away v top 11 teams.
- Platanias should not lose today and at their best score 3 goals at least. This being Greece, Iraklis are likely to mount the kind of rear-guard which has seen them lose 1-0 away in recent matches.
- If 0-0 at halftime, I would back 1-0 and 3-0, with a 3-1 saver.
- If Iraklis continue to struggle to even score, this opens the match up to a correct score win to nil punt. I usually choose 3 scorelines, 3-0 would be the maximum today.
- Form software trial conclusions - Platanias have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Iraklis have lost 8/10 away matches. Iraklis have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
19:15 - Union Berlin v Nurnberg - 1.79 Union
- This looks a liquid market.
- Nurnberg have won 6 and drawn one (3-3) of the last 7 head to heads but the market shirks previous efforts!
- This is 2nd v 10th in German Bundesliga 2.
Union Berlin 100% stats
- A win takes them top.
- No home 0-0.
- All wins at home outside the top 8.
- Scored 2 goals at least in those wins.
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
Union Berlin other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- 5 consecutive wins scoring 2 goals at least.
- 5 wins in their last 6 home matches.
Nurnberg 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Not beaten a top 6 side away.
Nurnberg other stats
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets since 31st October 2016.
- This is one of those 'form v head to head' matches. Form suggests Union Berlin could win, scoring 2 goals at least.
- Head to heads suggest Nurnberg like meeting Union Berlin, having not lost in 6 head to heads and beating them 2-0 already this season.
- Where do you side? Season-long form (Union to score 2 and win) or head to heads (against the market but with historical matches)?
- I would lay any late 0-0.
19:30 - Entella v Salernitana - 2.3 Entella
- 2-2 and 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- This is another fairly liquid match in Seria B. 10th v 14th.
Entella 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v 2nd and lower.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
Entella other stats
- 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- 4 wins in 5 home matches.
- 15 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.
Salernitana 100% stats
- No away match with exactly 3 goals.
Salernitana other stats
- Only 1 win away v teams above them in the league.
- I rarely visit Seria B but it does seem as if Entella should not lose and that is how I will approach this match.
- Lay Salernitana if Salernitana score first.
19:45 - Bassano Virtus v Venezia - 1.86 Venezia
- This is Italian Lega Pro. No I've not heard of it either but there is a degree of liquidity in the match odds market and an odds-on favourite.
- This is 10th v 1st.
Bassano Virtus 100% stats
- Have beaten all top 7 teams played so far at home this season.
- No 0-0 at home.
Bassano Virtus other stats
- 5 consecutive defeats.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Failed to score only once at home.
Venezia other stats
- 8 wins and a 2-2 last 9 matches.
- Failed to score only twice.
- Scored 2 + goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- Bassano tend to win v top 7 sides at home which puts a dampener on having faith in the away side to win. Value? Lay Venezia if Venezia score first but please note, I do not venture to Italian Lega Pro EVER!!
19:45 - Crusaders v Ballinamallard - 1.23 Crusaders
- Ah yes the Northern Ireland Premiership.
- 5-1 and 0-1 to Crusaders in head to heads this season already.
- This is 1st v 10th in the 12 team NI Premiership.
Crusaders 100% stats
- Not lost to nil.
- No 2-0 or 0-2 at home.
Crusaders other stats
- Only failed to score v Linfield.
- 10 wins, a draw and a loss v Linfield in their last 12 matches. Clearly Linfield are the other major team.
- Scored in their last 13 home matches and last 18 overall.
- 12 wins and a 2-2 at home v 3rd and lower.
Ballinamallard 100% stats
Ballinamallard other stats
- 3 consecutive defeats.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- 12 losses and a win in 13 matches home and away v top 5 teams.
- Crusaders should be winning today and could score 2+ goals if Ballinamallard continue to concede 2+ goals.
- If Ballinamallard score first, back Crusaders.