Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I thought it was a profitable weekend's live chat. I hope you did too. The last 3 matches, Roma, Barcelona and Paris St Germain all saw profitable trading angles. There will be no live chat this coming weekend. I will take the opportunity presented by the International Break to have a rare weekend off!
Today's football is barren to say the least. I will pick 3 matches which have liquidity and hope that there is an angle.

17:30 - Platanias v Iraklis - 1.97 Platanias

  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 15th (of 16) in the Greek Super League.

Platanias 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Platanias other stats

  • 6 wins and 3 draws last 9 home matches.
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Scored 3 goals in a game on 5 occasions at home v teams below them in the league.

Iraklis 100% stats

  • Not won at halftime away.
  • Not beaten any side above them in the league away from home.
  • Failed to score 2 goals away v top 11.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Iraklis other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Failed to score last 3 aways.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • Failed to score in 7 of 8 matches away v top 11 teams.

Conclusions

  • Platanias should not lose today and at their best score 3 goals at least. This being Greece, Iraklis are likely to mount the kind of rear-guard which has seen them lose 1-0 away in recent matches.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, I would back 1-0 and 3-0, with a 3-1 saver.
  • If Iraklis continue to struggle to even score, this opens the match up to a correct score win to nil punt. I usually choose 3 scorelines, 3-0 would be the maximum today.
  • Form software trial conclusions - Platanias have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Iraklis have lost 8/10 away matches. Iraklis have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

19:15 - Union Berlin v Nurnberg - 1.79 Union

  • This looks a liquid market.
  • Nurnberg have won 6 and drawn one (3-3) of the last 7 head to heads but the market shirks previous efforts!
  • This is 2nd v 10th in German Bundesliga 2.

Union Berlin 100% stats

  • A win takes them top.
  • No home 0-0.
  • All wins at home outside the top 8.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in those wins.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Union Berlin other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 consecutive wins scoring 2 goals at least.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 home matches.

Nurnberg 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side away.

Nurnberg other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets since 31st October 2016.

Conclusions

  • This is one of those 'form v head to head' matches. Form suggests Union Berlin could win, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Head to heads suggest Nurnberg like meeting Union Berlin, having not lost in 6 head to heads and beating them 2-0 already this season.
  • Where do you side? Season-long form (Union to score 2 and win) or head to heads (against the market but with historical matches)?
  • I would lay any late 0-0.

19:30 - Entella v Salernitana - 2.3 Entella

  • 2-2 and 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is another fairly liquid match in Seria B. 10th v 14th.

Entella 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 2nd and lower.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Entella other stats

  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 home matches.
  • 15 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Salernitana 100% stats

  • No away match with exactly 3 goals.

Salernitana other stats

  • Only 1 win away v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • I rarely visit Seria B but it does seem as if Entella should not lose and that is how I will approach this match.
  • Lay Salernitana if Salernitana score first.

19:45 - Bassano Virtus v Venezia - 1.86 Venezia

  • This is Italian Lega Pro. No I've not heard of it either but there is a degree of liquidity in the match odds market and an odds-on favourite.
  • This is 10th v 1st.

Bassano Virtus 100% stats

  • Have beaten all top 7 teams played so far at home this season.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Bassano Virtus other stats

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only once at home.

Venezia other stats

  • 8 wins and a 2-2 last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored 2 + goals in each of their last 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Bassano tend to win v top 7 sides at home which puts a dampener on having faith in the away side to win. Value? Lay Venezia if Venezia score first but please note, I do not venture to Italian Lega Pro EVER!!

19:45 - Crusaders v Ballinamallard - 1.23 Crusaders

  • Ah yes the Northern Ireland Premiership.
  • 5-1 and 0-1 to Crusaders in head to heads this season already.
  • This is 1st v 10th in the 12 team NI Premiership.

Crusaders 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil.
  • No 2-0 or 0-2 at home.

Crusaders other stats

  • Only failed to score v Linfield.
  • 10 wins, a draw and a loss v Linfield in their last 12 matches. Clearly Linfield are the other major team.
  • Scored in their last 13 home matches and last 18 overall.
  • 12 wins and a 2-2 at home v 3rd and lower.

Ballinamallard 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Ballinamallard other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • 12 losses and a win in 13 matches home and away v top 5 teams.

Conclusions

  • Crusaders should be winning today and could score 2+ goals if Ballinamallard continue to concede 2+ goals.
  • If Ballinamallard score first, back Crusaders.