Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It is a typical Monday coupon in a Champions League / Europa League week. There really is nothing to shortlist in these matches. I have 'favoured' Bologna, Betis and Lille today in matches in which the market cannot pick a side.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Brighton v Stoke - 2.4 Brighton

Brighton (9th)

  • Only 2 defeats in their last 9 matches came away from home.
  • 2 wins and 2 draws at home.
  • 1-1-1 scored in their last 3 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Stoke City (15th)

  • Only 3 wins this season.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 0-1-1-2-1 goals scored away.
  • Only 1 away win was 0-1.
  • Opponents scored first in 4/5 away matches.

Conclusions

  • A tough Premier League match as the odds suggest in a tough day (look at the odds for the favourites in the other matches).
  • Brighton are in good form at home but tend to score their goals 2nd half. I would watch out for that of 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.
  • Stoke do not tend to score that 2nd goal consistently away from home so I would lay them if they scored first. BUT as they did v Watford, Stoke could shut up shop if leading.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Verona v Bologna - 2.52 Bologna

Verona (19th)

  • Only 1 win came v newly promoted Benevento.
  • 1-0-0-0-1-1 goals scored at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 9 matches this season.
  • Not led at halftime.
  • Not scored a first half goal at home.

Bologna (13th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 5 matches away were 1-0 scorelines. 3 0-1 wins and 2 1-0 defeats.
  • No draw in 7 matches and in 6 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Crucially all wins have come v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Neither team has scored in the first half home (Verona) and away (Bologna) so you may want to back 0-0 pre match and hope that continues.
  • I would have to favour Bologna albeit their wins away v 16th and lower have been 0-1 only.
  • I would lay Verona if Verona scored first given Bologna have shown they can score v bottom sides away and Verona tend not to score 2 goals at home.
  • This match should favour Bologna today given Verona tend to concede 2 goals frequently.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Eibar v Betis - 2.52 Eibar

  • Wins were shared in head to heads last year.

Eibar (17th)

  • Only 2 wins came in the first 3 matches of the season and were only 1-0.
  • 0-1-0-0-2 goals scored at home. When they scored 2 goals they still did not win.
  • 2-3-1-0-2-2-2 total goals before halftime in recent matches.
  • Not led at halftime.
  • Not played top 8 at home but lost away when playing them.
  • Not scored a first half goal at home.

Betis (8th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not played bottom 6 away.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Firstly, acknowledge the market. They cannot split the teams. On bare form, I would have to nod to Betis.
  • Eibar are yet to meet the top 8 at home but have only won 1 match v the rest.
  • Betis tend to been lower third teams, albeit at home and have met better positioned teams away.
  • Neither side has led at halftime.
  • I will look to oppose any Eibar lead today and favour Betis.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Amiens v Lille - 2.7 Lille

Amiens (19th)

  • You will, I hope, remember the Amiens v Monaco match? I mentioned the 1-1 sequence which continued on Friday as Monaco came from behind to draw 1-1.
  • That is 3 consecutive 1-1 draws for Amiens now, in a run of 4 unbeaten. The 4th match was 1-0.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches all season so are a defensively led team with limited attacking capacity.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only met 2 of the bottom 5, a home win and an away win.
  • No 0-0.

Lille (18th)

  • 2 consecutive wins, scoring 3 goals in each win.
  • 0-1-0-0-3 scored away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only away win v 20th was 0-3 v another newly promoted side.

Conclusions

  • I would not read too much into the 1-1 for Amiens v Monaco. Monaco pre-Champions League have very poor form.
  • We must acknowledge the market again which hasn't got a clue. A typically Monday coupon.
  • Amiens are on a 3 match 1-1 sequence. This sequence will end and I would lay any late 1-1 draw.
  • Lille are finding goals now. 6 in 2 matches and on that basis alone I think they can respond if Amiens score first as they did v Monaco.