Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The usual quiet after the storm. Welcome to Monday. The research moving forward will look more like what you see in the 2 Swedish games and the Irish Premier Division match below. Note the more in-depth research. It is because we have form and 10+ matches to work with. The English Premiership, Spanish La Liga et al has nothing for me to work with at the moment, hence my plea to you to use in-play stats to formulate your decisions at this stage (www.williamhill.com and www.flashscore.com live centre are the 2 best free resources).
I usually take Monday off, given I gave an 8 hour live chat on Sunday. As ever though, if I am online I will be tweeting.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

20:00 - Man City v Everton - 1.31 Man City

  • 1-1 and 4-0 Everton in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Little to get from the opening matches. City beat Brighton 0-2. Everton beat Stoke 1-0.
  • Everton are a step up from Brighton. If Brighton can keep City to 0-0 at halftime, Everton are most certainly capable of this.
  • My knee-jerk reaction? The odds for Man City are far too short. Are they layable at the off at 1.31? If will require an Everton first goal to ensure a profitable trade.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

19:15 - Levante v Villarreal - 2.42 Villareal

  • 0-2, 0-2, 1-0 in the last 3 head to heads at Levante. Villareal it seems likes visiting but no recent head to heads.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Villarreal away matches against promoted teams.
  • There have been -1.5 goals in 10/20 Villarreal away matches.
  • Villareal were 5th last season. 7 wins and a 0-0 at home v bottom 8 sides.
  • Levante are newly promoted and we have seen this weekend that these teams are very hard to predict. SPAL keeps Lazio to 0-0, Benevento scored first v Sampdoria, Girona led 2-0 v Atl Madrid.
  • I have no angles at all therefore. This really is a watching brief. We are likely to get an ultra defensive display from the home side on their opening Primera Liga match.

21:00 - Malaga v Eibar - 2.26 Malaga

  • 2 Malaga wins and an Eibar win in head to heads.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Eibar away matches against middle-third teams and +2.5 goals in 11/20 Eibar away matches.
  • Malaga have conceded first in 12/18 home matches.
  • 11th v 10th last season.
  • Only 2 home draws for Malaga v bottom 2.
  • Eibar conceded in 16 away matches last season.
  • Again, no CURRENT form to work with. I do think Eibar look vulnerable away from home and consideration for laying Eibar if Eibar scored first.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Sundsvall v Kalmar FF - 2.3 Sundsvall

  • 2 consecutive Kalmar head to head wins to nil, albeit at Kalmar.
  • This is 14th v 13th in the Swedish Allvenskan.
  • GIF Sundsvall have conceded first in 7/11 home matches while Kalmar FF have scored first in 9/15 away matches.
  • GIF Sundsvall have lost 10/18 home matches.

Sundsvall

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 home wins v bottom 2 sides.
  • Scored 2+ goals at home only once.

Kalmar

  • Only 2 draws.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Beat the bottom 3, albeit at home.
  • Only scored 5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor sides. A possible angle? As Sundsvall has only managed to score 2 goals or more once at home, it suggests they are layable if scoring first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

18:00 - Orebro v Hammarby - 2.36 Orebro

  • Both teams have scored in the last 9 head to heads.
  • Orebro is unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads, with both teams scoring.
  • This is 10th v 11th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • Orebro have won 6/11 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Hammarby IF away matches against bottom-half teams.

Orebro

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 or more goals scored in each of the last 4 home matches and 2 or more goals conceded in each of the last 3 home matches.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Hammarby

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 9 matches.
  • 7 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 9.
  • Conceded in each of their last 9 away and last 13 matches overall.
  • Only 2 away wins v 3rd and 15th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a very strong pattern. It tends to suggest to me laying any leader 2-0/0-2.
  • With Orebro scoring 2 goals regularly (albeit conceding 2 goals regularly) at home, I would be keen to lay Hammarby if Hammarby scored first, particularly given Hammarby's propensity to concede goals recently.
  • I would oppose any late 0-0 here and if 0-0 at halftime, I would consider backing over 2.5 goals. Another possible? Back 2-1/1-2 and hope the both teams to score pattern continues.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:15 - Finn Harps v Cork City - 1.55 Cork City

  • A very interesting Irish Premier Division match given the seemingly invincible Cork City has been showing cracks of late
  • 8 consecutive Cork City wins in head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 1st in the Irish Premier Division.

Finn Harps

  • Only 3 draws all season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets. A chance of redemption for Cork who has scored 0-1-0 last 3 matches?
  • 2-2-3-4 goals conceded by Finn Harps recently.
  • Conceded in each of their last 12 matches.
  • Lost without scoring v top 5 at home and v top 2 home and away.

Cork City

  • 2 0-1 home losses in their last 3 matches.
  • 0-1-0 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 12 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Finn 0-1 earlier this season away from home.

Conclusions

  • A chance of redemption for Cork City. Something is clearly amiss up front. Finn Harps conceded 11 goals in their last 4 matches. Can this faltering Cork side take advantage?
  • A superb season ends with those 2 defeats in 3 now and troubles scoring.
  • Cork has not had an away 0-0 yet and have 5 consecutive away wins. It might be the plundering of players by Preston North End that is weakening Cork City?
  • I would lay any late 0-0 here.
  • I note Finn Harps has failed to score v top 2 so really this is for Cork to grab.