Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Sweden and Ireland dominate today and these will be good summer leagues. Tennis-wise, the French Open qualifiers begin today, there's the ATP Lyon, WTA Nurnberg. Geneva Open and WTA Strasbourg so busy times. I will try and trade a few on Twitter @drtclub. No promises though. I do need a break after a weekend of football and a long session yesterday (very productive though with Norrkoping's near 28/1 payout and Barcelona consenting to go 0-2 down (backed any other home score at 10 - not bad from a match where the fav was 1.07!!)).
I hope to see you on [email protected]. No promises though! Tennis times are fluid so I cannot nail a start time. I suggest you use Betfair's tennis coupon or a bookmaker's tennis match list as your guide.

18:00 - Elfsborg v Jonkopings Sodra - 1.84 Elfsborg

  • 1-0 Sodra the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 9th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • 9 matches into the season and both sides only have the 3 wins.
  • Jonkopings have the fewer defeats so Miss Marple's amongst you can deduce that they have been drawing too many matches.
  • Elfsborg have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches. Their last match was a great trading match v AFC United, a team worth opposing this season.
  • Elfsborg have scored in all home matches.
  • All over 2.5 goals matches bar 1 this season.
  • All wins have come v 13th and lower so may struggle today.
  • Jonkopings last 4 matches were under 2.5 goals so we have a contrast there.
  • 1-3-0-1-0- scored away. The 3 was scored against 2nd bottom.

Conclusions

  • Patterns to follow or end? Elfsborg scoring in all home matches. But Sodra failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away.
  • Both teams to score strong for Elfsborg? They did concede to AFC and come back in.
  • No ultra strong patterns for me. To be expected in some matches where only 9 games have been played.

18:00 - Sundsvall v IFK Goteborg - 1.96 IFK

  • Both teams have scored in the last 6 head to heads, with at least one team scoring 3 goals in 5 of those 6 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 12th in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Goteborg have played a match less.

Sundsvall

  • 4 consecutive clean sheets and ended a pattern of 0-0's with a win last match.
  • Only 1 home win v bottom side AFC.
  • Only 2 wins v 13th and 16th.

IFK

  • Only 1 away win and lost their last 2 away.
  • All draws were 1-1.
  • Yet to play a team 7th and lower away which tells you defeats are coming away v top 5 teams.
  • No 0-0.
  • All 3 goals away scored 60th+ minute.

Conclusions

  • Top 4 for IFK but yet to get going this season.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would take a chance on IFK getting something today. Their sights have been lowered (playing 10th).
  • I would lay Sundsvall if Sundsvall scored first. IFK have had a few 1-1's. Note too Sundsvall's home for so far is not the best.

18:00 - Djurgardens v AIK - 2.34 Djurgardens

  • 3 consecutive AIK wins in head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 8th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • A good start to the season from both sides with only the 2 losses.

Djurgardens

  • Djurgarden have lost to 1st and 4th only but their 4 wins came v current 11th in the league and lower.
  • Malmo are the only side to beat Djurgardens in 8 matches and that was a 3-2.
  • 3-3-1 scored in their last 3 home matches.
  • No home 0-0.

AIK

  • 3 1-0's and a 0-0 last 4 matches. You can tell what they've been working on. Is Tony Pulis Swedish?
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Not yet met a top 8 side away.
  • No away 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Great clean sheet pattern for AIK but contextually it is difficult as they are yet to meet the top 8 away.
  • Note the 0-0 avoidance both sides so I would lay the late 0-0.
  • Other than that messy stats. Home side score 3-3-1 last 3 at home. Away side 4 consecutive clean sheets. Who will out?

18:00 - Genclerbirligi v Fenerbahce - 2.18 Fenerbahce

  • 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 in the 3 head to heads at Gencler.
  • This is 10th v 4th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • Fenerbahce's only goal is to maintain 4th or improve into 3rd with the remaining 3 matches. They can still be overtaken into 4th.

Genclerbirligi stats

  • No win in 3.
  • Only 2 home defeats were 0-1.
  • Have yet to concede a 2nd goal in a home match.
  • 1-0-0-1-0 scored at home v top 6.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.
  • Only 2 goals conceded at home in the second half.

Fenerbahce stats

  • Only 6 defeats all season, 4 of them were 0-1 and one came last match.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 away.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Wins away v 6th-12th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • I will take a chance today and say that Genclerbirligi's home form is the strongest.
  • In that case, lay Fenerbahce if Fenerbahce score first in the hope that Gencler can continue to have home matches where the opponent cannot score that 2nd goal. Yes Fener could win 0-1 but it will be a short priced lay.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Fenerbahce yet to have a 0-0 away.

18:00 - Stabaek v Viking - 1.95 Stabaek

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 5th v 16th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 9 matches.

Stabaek

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score last 2 home matches, latterly 0-0 v leaders Rosenborg.
  • Very contrarian at home. 3 wins and a 0-0 at home v top 6, lose to 12th 0-3!!

Viking

  • 7 defeats this season. 3 consecutive defeats now.
  • Only 1 clean sheet produced a win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches.
  • No won away. Not led at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 away.

Conclusions

  • It would surprise me were Viking to win so they must be opposed if leading. They may not even get on the scoresheet yet though.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market whilst Viking matches are seeing at least a goal before halftime.

19:45 - Pescara v Palermo - 2.34 Pescara

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is the bottom 2 in Italian Seria A and both are relegated.
  • A match to pass by quickly!

19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Cork City - 1.59 Cork

  • 2-1 Cork the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 10th v 1st in the Irish Premier Division.

Sligo Rovers

  • Only home defeat came v 2nd in the league.
  • Only 3 wins all season came at home.
  • Very inconsistent. Where W=Win, L=Loss and D=Draw, here are Sligo's recent matches. LWLDWLDDWLD.
  • Unbeaten in 5 at home but as I say lost to 2nd.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Cork City

  • Unbeaten. All wins bar a draw with Galway.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.

Conclusions

  • Sligo home stats suggest 2 goals at least in total today.
  • Sligo are that dangerous team for traders. All over the fecking shop, to be sure. This makes them unpredictable.
  • But we note that their sole home defeat was v 2nd in the league.
  • Cork to remain unbeaten? Then lay Sligo if Sligo score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

20:00 - Finn Harps v St Patricks - 1.94 St Pats

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Finn Harps in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 8th in the Irish Premier Division after 14 matches.

Finn Harps

  • 7 defeats in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 at home.
  • Drawn at home v 9th and beaten 10th so a chance v 8th.
  • Conceded in all home matches.
  • No 0-0.

St Patricks

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 4 away but 3 were score draws.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Lost away to 11th and lost to Finn Harps earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. We should expect 2 goals at least in total today if St Pats patterns continue.
  • Tough to comfortably write off Finn Harps given they drew with 9th and beat 10th. 3 of their home defeats came v the top 3.
  • Given the St Pat score draws, I would lay Finn Harps if Finn Harps scored first.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Galway United - 1.67 Shamrock

  • 7 consecutive Shamrock wins in head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 9th in the Irish Premier Division after 14 matches.

Shamrock Rovers

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 10 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only home defeats were v the current top 4.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.

Galway United

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 but 7 draws.
  • 6 1-1 draws this season.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Away defeats v 1st and 3rd - all draws v the rest.

Conclusions

  • I tend to pick a 2-1/1-2 correct score and trade out if 1-1. But it worked a treat yesterday as Norrkoping won 1-2 at 28 odds despite being 1-1 we were unable to trade out.
  • Both teams to score is strong and Galway's 6 1-1 draws tell you they can concede when scoring. Shamrock's over 2.5 goals tells you both teams are likely to contribute.
  • The home is 2-1/1-2 arrives via a 1-1 scoreline to enable us to trade out of either score.
  • Elsewhere given so many score draws, lay Galway if Galway score first.