Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A quiet day today, the Atalanta and Braga matches are the 2 which are easiest to read. It's a week of Premier League and other elite league mid-week matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - QPR v Brentford - 2.42 Brentford

  • Brentford won the 2 matches last year.
  • The odds do not attract me to this match. We will see what the research has to say.

QPR (16th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • All 4 wins came at home, 3 were 2-1.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches v teams above them in the league.

Brentford (15th)

  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score only once in those 11 matches.
  • Not beaten top 11 away. Wins away v 13th, 21st and 24th.

Conclusions

  • The market as ever tells us this is tough to call. I would ordinarily leave this match alone but it is a quiet Monday.
  • I would be interested in a 2-1/1-2 back based only on the amount of times QPR see a 2-1 scoreline at home v teams above them in the league. Brentford too have scored 2+ goals v 13th and lower away.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Atalanta v Benevento - 1.28 Atalanta

Atalanta (12th)

  • Only 4 wins this season all came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5-2-1-3 goals scored v 15th and lower at home.

Benevento (20th)

  • Lost every match.
  • Unlucky v Sassuolo latest. It was 1-1 until a Benevento red card. A win or draw is near I think against the right opponent.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • 6-0 and 3 2-1 defeats away v 13th and higher in the league.

Conclusions

  • Defeats can be tight v top teams, 2-1 generally. Atalanta have shown in their 11 goals in 4 home matches v 15th and lower, that they have 2+ goals in them today, enough I would suggest for a win even if conceding.
  • Benevento scored v Juventus and Sampdoria away from home so do not discount a goal from them.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Espanyol v Getafe - 2.12 Espanyol

  • The home side has won the last 4 head to heads.

Espanyol (16th)

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home. Lost to 2nd in the league so no disgrace.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • 0-1 v 11th and 0-0 v 13th.

Getafe (12th)

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only the first 2 matches of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 3 score draws in 4 away.
  • Not won last 4 away.
  • 8 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 10.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We have a home side with under 2.5 goals v an away side with 8 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 10.
  • This makes the match unreadable for me. Espanyol I must say are in good recent home form. A loss to 2nd placed Valencia is no disgrace.
  • Getafe have drawn 3 and lost one of their last 4 away matches.
  • Strictly on recent form Espanyol are favoured today.
  • I repeat though that lack of congruity with the over/under 2.5 goals stats makes it less appealing.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMERA LIGA

19:00 - Braga v Feirense - 1.45 Braga

  • Braga have tended to win head to heads.

Braga (5th)

  • 5 wins and a 2-2 last 6 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime were not 0-0 at fulltime.
  • Not conceded more than 1 goal in home matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins at home v 9th and lower. not played 12th-17th inclusive at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not conceded a goal in the 2nd half at home.

Feirense (14th)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • 4 consecutive 1-0 matches, 3 were defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches v top 9. 1-0 defeats away v Benfica, and Boavista.

Conclusions

  • Feirense could be tough to beat if their 1-0 defeats to 4th and 7th and indeed 4 consecutive 1-0 matches is anything to go by.
  • I do not expect Braga to lose though. They have tended to win v teams 9th and lower.