Plenty of excitement in Roma yesterday. I hope you played and I hope you profited. Today's football is limited to Norway and Sweden. The French Open flexed its muscles yesterday and was a good advertisement for profiting from backing players who actually lose (Lucic-Baroni backed at 8.00 layed off at 3.00). More of the same today I hope. Tennis trading will be on Twitter only @drtclub whenever it starts. I don't give a time as tennis is notoriously fluid as far as times are concerned.
18:00 - AIK v Malmo FF - 2.64 Malmo
- 1-1 and 2-0 Malmo in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 5th v 2nd in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 9 and 10 matches played.
- 4 1-0 wins and a 0-0 in their last 5 tells us they are a Tony Pulis wet dream.
- 0-1-1-0-1 scored at home so it's a case of necessity in attempting clean sheets. How else do you win scoring 1 goal max?
- Failed to score only twice.
- Not met top 3 yet but 0-0 at home to 4th.
- All 3 home goals scored first half.
- Only loss was last match.
- DWDWD (D=Draw, W=Win) away.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Not met top 6 away.
- If AIK win it will be 1-0. But Malmo are scoring and conceding so I would lay AIK if AIK scored first in this match.
- I think AIK will be found out if they keep scoring only 1 goal.
- Malmo have had 6 consecutive 0-0's at halftime so 2nd half may see goals despite AIK scoring all 3 home goals in the first half.
- If you think 0-0 is alive, back it pre-match at its highest point to lay off at around halftime if we see 0-0 halftime.
18:00 - Hacken v Ostersunds FK - 2.34 Hacken
- 3-1 Hacken last league head to head. 3-1 Ostersunds in the cup.
- This is 4th v 9th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 10 matches.
- Only one loss.
- Have had 4 0-0's this season. A high proportion.
- 4-2-2 goals scored last 3 matches resulted in Win, Draw, Win.
- All wins v 10th and lower this season and meet 9th today.
- 5 goals scored at home first 1/2 hour of matches.
- Loss, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss away. Not travelling well.
- Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
- No away 0-0.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 away and only beat bottom side.
- I have to be with Hacken despite the market being none too hot on them. Ostersunds could score and concede but not win so lay them if they score first.
- Hacken have shown they can score quickly so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Hacken could continue the wins we have seen v 10th and lower, despite playing 9th today.
18:00 - Orebro v Sirius - 2.76 Orebro
- Last head to head was a friendly.
- This is 13th v 6th in the Swedish Allvenskan.
- No win in 7. Failed to score in 6 of those 7 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score last 3 at home.
- Not beaten a top 8 side.
- 4 draws in 5 matches.
- Defeat and 2 draws last 3 away.
- Only 1 match outside top 11 was a win.
- All 6 away goals scored 2nd half.
- The market cannot split the sides.
- If Orebro do not score they do not win and 0-0 is the best they can hope for. I could see a 0-0 at halftime. I would then back Sirius to open the scoring as all of their away goals came 2nd half and their sole win outside of the top 11 was an emphatic 3-0 home win.
18:00 - Stromgodset v Viking - 1.97 Stromgodset
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- This is 15th v 16th in the Norwegian Eliteserien. The 2 worse teams after 10 matches.
- Only 2 wins.
- Only 1 home loss.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- No 0-0.
- Not won at halftime.
- Wins at home v 9th and 12th.
- Only 1 win.
- No away win.
- 0-0-1-0-1 goals scored away.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- I think Stroms are where they are because of too many draws. Viking are where they are because they have only 1 win.
- I must favour Stroms today.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- If Stroms are losing at halftime I would still favour them 2nd half.
- Viking are highly likely to concede so note that.
18:00 - Alanyaspor v Galatasary - 1.74 Galatasary
- 11 goals scored by Galatasary in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 11th v 4th in the Turkish Super Lig.
- 2 matches remain this season. Alanyaspor are safe from relegation.
- Galatasary will be keen to consolidate their Europa league place.
What I will do today is make an initial sweep and research the matches with the household names. Then, if I have time, I will work on other matches.
10am provisional start.
Research focuses mainly on the shorties because it is with these that we will make our profits. See Pouille yesterday. 1.09 pre match was as high as 2.12 in-play and still won.
Milos Raonic v Steve Darcis - 1.11 Milos
- 6th v 53rd in the rankings.
- Quick research here. Raonic only undone last week in 2 tie breaker sets v Berdych.
- Steve Darcis has met 2 top 10 players recently and lost 6-1 6-1 and 6-2 6-1.
- I would expect a 3-0 from Raonic today with ease in breaking Darcis as Cilic and Goffin did. Anything else we exploit. If Milos trades above 1.5 I would back him .
Caroline Wozniacki v Jaimee Fourlis - 1.05 Wozza
- 11th v 346th in the rankings.
- Wozza retired from Strasbourg which makes her a lay here at 1.06 just in case.....
- It was a lumbar spine injury for Wozza. This may inflame with the repetition of serving. 1.06 lay means little liability if she plays to her capabilities and wins. We are playing the 'what if' game here.
Benoit Paire v Rafa Nadal - 1.04 Rafa
- 49th v 5th.
- Head to heads 0-2 Rafa from 2013.
- Paire I suspect is French so will be galvanised here.
- 4 of Paire's 5 defeats came in 3 sets, one v Stan Wawrinka. Those were best if 3 set matches. Today is best of 5.
- Monte Carlo WIN, Barcelona WIN, Madrid WIN. In 13 of those matches Rafa did not drop a set.
- Expect a 3-0 today and prepare to back Nadal if he struggles at the highest odds you can. Only Dominic Thiem has beaten him recently.
- I do say it often, laying at 1.05 right off the bat over the best of 5 sets is to be encouraged despite the obvious nature of the Nadal dominance. It only takes one of these to struggle over the French Open for us to compensate for the ones, like Dimitrov yesterday, who do not even rise above 1.05 odds all match.
Marcelo Granollers v Novak Djokovic - 1.02 Novak
- 65th v 2nd.
- 3-0 head to heads. Last was 2013.
- Novak must be layed at 1.03. This is not THE Novak. Round of 16 at Indian Wells, Quarters in Monte Carlo, Semi Finals in Madrid and lost in 2 straight sets to Alexander Zverev in Rome.
- Novak will likely win as he tend to lose to the 'next gen' players. 9 defeats in 10 matches for Granollers.
- As I say, a natural lay here at 1.03 for Novak just in case he has the Serbian colley-wobbles.
Paul-Henri Mathieu v David Goffin - 1.08 Goffin
- 113th v 10th and beware, Mathieu is a Frenchie at the French Open. If his beret does not slip and that string of onions round his neck do not impede him, he may offer resistance.
- No head to heads.
- Goffin for me has been an ultra reliable trading vehicle recently.he lost the first set to Belluci and Verdasco in Rome and came back to win the next 2 sets. In Madrid he beat Milos Raonic, took Rafa Nadal to a tie breaker first set so he is ultra reliable.
- Have Goffin on your side throughout this match regardless of the trouble he might be in!
Georges v Putintseva - 1.17 Putin
- 240th v 31st in the rankings. Any relation to Vladimir?
- No head to heads.
- Georges is a 60K tour player so little known about her.
- Putinseva reached the quarters in Nurnberg winning in 3 sets on 2 occasions so watch out if Vlad's sister loses a set.
Rublev v Schwartzmann - 1.15 Sch
- 117th v 34th.
- no head to heads.
- Rublev tends to need to qualify for tournaments. He failed to qualify for Casablanca, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Estoril.
- It takes a good un to beat Schwartzmann - Sock, Nishikori, Cilic, and Nadal for instance.
- I expect a Schwartzmann win.
Tomljanovic v Bertens - 1.11 Bertens
- 359th v 20th.
- Quarter Final in Madrid, Semi Final in Rome, winner Nurnberg, I have backed Bertens in the outright winner market. She could surprise.
- I expect a 2-0 set win and will back Bertens if it looks as if Tom will win the first set. Bertens did this last week and won in 2 straight sets when it looked as if she would lose the first set.
Ferrer v Young - 1.17 Ferrer
- 32nd v 44th in the rankings.
- On rankings alone, Ferrer's odds are too short which makes him layable at 1.18 over this format.
- Bitty form from the Terrier recently. 3 setter v Kukushkin, walkover v Tsonga and 2 set loss to Nishikori. 3 setter v Lopez and another loss to Nishikori.
- Ferrer will not be winning the French Open. Donald Young is a journey man player.
- Considering Ferrer was a stalwart top 10 player, the fact he is 32nd tells you he is in decline. I will lay him 1.18 but conversely back him if he is in trouble if his odds get to 1.8 or higher.
Gulbis v Cilic - 1.1 Cilic
- 169th v 8th.
- Cilic won the most recent head to head in 2016. It is 3-2 Cilic historically
- 5 consecutive defeats for Gulbis who has stumbling in tournament qualifier semi finals on 4 consecutive occasions.
- Cilic has been stopped by Isner in 3 sets (2 were tie breakers), and Alexander Zverev, recent finals winner over Novak Djokovic.
- Cilic will win today and with Gulbis retiring in his last round, we are unlikely to see a trade here.
Stosur v Kucova - 1.12 Stosur
- 18th v 94th in the rankings.
- 6 defeats in 7 for Kucova meets a Stosur winning in Strasbourg. A perfect springboard for a likely 2-0 Stosur win.
- Stosur on my side here throughout. 3 3 setters and a retirement for Kucova so let's hope he wins the first set.
Alexander Zverev v Fernando Verdasco - 1.19 Zverev
- 21st v 36th in the rankings.
- 1-1 head to heads, most recent Alex win 2017.
- Zverev was 1.53 on that occasion.
- Winner in Munich, Quarters in Madrid, and Winner in Rome, Zverev has the momentum and the skill to beat Verdasco.
- Verdasco is a tough nut to crack so for me in this format, 1.19 is too short for Zverev. I am sure the odds will rise at some point.
- 3 setter v Goffin, and Nishikori in Miami, Verdasco can threaten a set.
- Verdasco has won 7 of this last tie breakers so a) he can take players to tie breaker sets and b) tends to win big key points.
- This will be a test for Zverev whose 1.19 is too short to back, hence a lay. Zverev likely winner based on momentum but will be a battle.
Gasquet v De Greef - 1.14 Gasquet
- 23rd v 134th. Gasquet will have home support.
- De Greef came through qualifying and was a semi final in the Bordeaux Challenger event.
- Gasquet tends to be galvanised in France. He was a finalist in Montpellier, semi finalist in Marseille.
- His last 2 losses have been 3 setters. This is a best of 5 sets so if he loses a set I expect Gasquet to fight back.