Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The International Break halts the Elite league football. There is some very interesting ATP and WTA tennis but time zones mean the matches are generally being played 5am onwards and we are missing out on some big names. I will not research the tennis at this stage given the negative time zone.

19:30 - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Duisburg - 1.82 Fortuna

  • No head to heads since April 2016 suggests one of these teams is either promoted or relegated.

Fortuna Dusseldorf

  • 2nd after 8 matches.
  • Only 1 defeat came away.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 2-2-3-1 goals scored at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Where they have conceded 2 goals (twice) they have not lost.
  • 4 home goals scored last 15 mins of matches.

Duisburg

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2-4-2 scored in their last 3 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would look at backing 2-2 here as a trading angle given these 2 have a pattern for scoring 2 goals at least, and Fortuna have conceded 2 goals twice without losing.

18:00 - Trelleborgs v Varbergs BoIS - 1.71 Trelleborgs

  • 0-1 Varberg and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 10th in the Swedish Superettan.

Trelleborgs

  • Only 2 defeats in 12 matches.
  • 3 wins to nil in their last 4 matches.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • A run of 6 wins in 7 matches at home v 6th to 12th.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 11 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Varbergs

  • Only 1 loss in 5.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 10 came last match.
  • 1-0-0-1-0 scored away recently may not be enough today.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 away.
  • Failed to score away v top 4.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half. 21 goals conceded away A ratio of 1:3.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Varbergs should be layed if scoring first given their recent goals record away 1-0-0-1-0.
  • Trelleborgs have an excellent win record at home v mid table sides and that really should continue today.
  • 4 0-0's recently at halftime for Trelleborgs did not finish 0-0 so a good angle there.

18:00 - Gefle v Helsingborgs - 2.76 home and away

  • Why am I researching this? The market cannot even split these 2.
  • 1-1 in their sole Superettan head to head.
  • I think both sides were relegated from the Allsvenskan and in head to heads there both teams scored in 12 consecutive matches.
  • This is 13th v 4th in the Swedish Superettan.

Gefle

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 12 at home.
  • Have lost all home matches v the top 9.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of those 7 defeats.
  • No 0-0.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Helsinborgs

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • No win in 4 away sees 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Conceded in each of their last 10 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Lost away to 12th and 14th and play 13th today.
  • 3 away wins were 1-2.
  • 9 goals conceded away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • I must make mention of the market which cannot split the teams and usually with odds like those, we leave the match alone.
  • Lay any late draw if Gefle continue to avoid home draws.
  • Both teams could reasonably score today. Gefle are scoring and conceding v top 9 (and losing) and strictly on form, should struggle today v 4th in the league.
  • 2-1 and 1-2 correct score appeals today. Helsingborgs tend to win 1-2 if they win away, and both teams to score is a strong trend. I would trade out if lucky to see a 1-1 as both 2-1/and 1-2 odds would fall.