Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Djurgardens, HJK and Cork City matches look eminently readable today. My marriage to Caroline Wozniacki is on the rocks now as she lost the Final yesterday in 2 straight sets. BUT if you head over to Twitter @drtclub you'll see 3 occasions where she was backable at odds of 2.5 and those odds dropped to 1.5 or 1.6 . Remember in tennis trading, the hint is enough for us to profit.
Over @whatreallywins today I will be checking out the potential market movers at the Galway Festival, and tomorrow at Glorious Goodwood as well. Pop along if you want. I tend to go for very big odds selections where the market signals potential gambles. I have picked some big winners and placed horses at the major festivals so a hope for more of the same today.
There are no standout names today on the tennis coupon. I list the ATP and WTA tournaments and matches at the base of this message but will not be researching all matches. I will research those which catch my eye initially.

16:30 - JJK v RoPS - 2.18 RoPS

  • This is what is called an 'unmanaged' market so I will not be researching or trading this match. We need to focus on 'managed' markets in-play.

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v HIFK - 1.27 HJK

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 11th of 12 in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss this season.
  • 7 wins in 8 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in those 5 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

HIFK

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Scored in their last 7 away matches.
  • Conceded 7 goals away last 15 mins of matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 matches v top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • At their best, HIFK could score draw as they did away v 2nd. At their best, HJK could score 3-5 goals and win easily.
  • We are unlikely to see a trade as HJK are likely to score first and lead at halftime.

17:30 - SJK v KuPS - 2.44 SJK

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 4th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

SJK

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Tend to do all of their winning v 9th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 3rd, 5th and 6th.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored 8 of 11 goals at home in the second half.

KuPS

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Tend to do all of their winning v 8th and lower.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 2 of the lesser lights in a lesser league. I would, on form, have to side with KuPS and therefore lay SJK were SJK to score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams could score today with KuPS not losing.

18:00 - AFC Utd v Djurgardens - 1.48 Djurgardens

  • 4-1 Djurgardens the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 16th v 4th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

AFC United

  • Only 1 win came last home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • All defeats home and away v top 7 teams - scored and conceded in 6 of those 7 defeats.
  • Scored 6 of their 7 goals at home in the second half.

Djurgardens

  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both teams should score today but with AFC more than likely losing.
  • That's a simple trading angle in so attack any AFC lead in this match.

18:00 - Hacken v Orebro - 1.82 Hacken

  • 0-0; 0-1 Orebro; 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 11th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Hacken

  • Only 4 defeats all season.
  • Do all of their winning v teams below them in the league so statistically more likely to get a result today.

Orebro

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have lost all 4 away matches v teams 9th and higher in the league.
  • Scored all 7 away goals 2nd half and conceded 10 of 13 away goals 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It does look statistically more likely that Hacken will draw or win today. They tend to do all of their winning v teams below them in the league and Orebro tend to do all of their away losing v teams 9th or higher in the league.
  • So look at that angle for this match. Hacken to get a positive result.
  • Note Orebro's strong 2nd half scoring and conceding bias -if 0-0 at halftime therefore we should expect goals 2nd half.

19:45 - Cork City v Bohemians - 1.27 Cork City

  • 0-0 and 0-2 Cork City in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 6th in the Irish Premier Division.

Cork City

  • This match does not appear at soccerstats.com but I will research it.
  • All wins bar a single draw.
  • 11 consecutive home wins.

Bohs

  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
  • No away draw.
  • All defeats home and away v top 3 teams.

Conclusions

  • 2-0 loss for Bohs looks the most frequent scoreline when tacking the top 3. Look at that scoreline as a trading angle today.
  • Can Cork City go through the season unbeaten? They conceded first last match and scored 2 second half goals so look trustworthy if conceding first.

TENNIS

We see a number of US based tournaments now in the run up to the US Open at the end of August. I have looked at the coupon today and there are no stand out names. The big guns will show themselves nearer to the US Open in a warm up tournament or two. I won't be researching all matches, only those initially which catch the eye, or have a very short priced favourite.

ATP Washington

Nicolas Mahut v Thomas Fabbiano - 1.91 Mahut

Tommy Paul v Casper Ruud - 1.48 Paul

Vasek Pospisil v Henri Laaksonen - 1.37 Pospisil

  • 112th v 111th.
  • Hard court.
  • Vasek won a Busan Challenger on hard this year.
  • Henri does not tend to go far in hard court events.
  • Henri has been playing a lot recently and putting in some good performances. If he wins the first set though I will lay him.

Stefan Kozlov v Yuki Bhambri - 1.68 Yuki

Dudi Sela v Jared Donaldson - 1.86 Jared

Sekou Bangoura v Marius Copil - 1.33 Copil

  • Copil is a familiar name.
  • 261st v 110th. As you can see the rankings are poor today generally speaking.
  • No head to heads.
  • 2 3 setters in qualifying from Sekou to get here.
  • He is a challenger tour player but is an American.
  • His last 3 hard court matches have been 3 setters which tells us he should not be winning 2-0 if winning the first set.
  • Copil reached the semis in 2 Challenger grass court tournaments.
  • He has had 4 tie breakers in his last 5 hard court matches so tends to get into battles.
  • As you can see we are relying on triple-figured rankings and that is not to be encouraged in tennis trading.

Alexios Halebian v Lukas Lacko - 1.13 Lacko

  • 628th v 103rd and that rankings discrepancy says it all.
  • Alexios is an American.
  • No head to heads.
  • Halebian is a futures player so how can we gauge his form?
  • Lacko reached the quarters on hard in Atalanta going out to eventual finalist Big John Isner. His beating of Donald Young catches the eye and suggests the odds are spot on.
  • Expect a 2 setter. Back Lacko if his odds rise reasonably high.

WTA Stanford

Lara Arruabarrena v Lesia Tsurenko - 1.39 Lesia

  • 61st v 42nd.
  • Hard court.
  • 2-0 Lesia in head to heads.
  • Lara has not played since Wimbledon.
  • 9 of Lara's last 10 wins on all surfaces were in 3 setters. This lady does not do 2-0!!
  • She had a good Miami Masters on hard, beating Begu and keys - 33rd and 10th in the rankings. Reproduce that and Lesia could be layable if winning the first set.
  • Lesia has been a familiar name, probably because she played , and lost to, Heather and Konta on grass.
  • Lesia won the Acapulco tournament but to be fair, that form is iffy. 2 of the players retired. She went out in the round of 128 in Miami and Indian Wells.
  • You know, there could be value in laying Lesia if she wins the first set.

Misaki Doi v Kayla Day - 1.88 Doi

Marina Erakovic v Ana Konjuh - 1.28 Ana

  • 104th v 34th.
  • Konjuh won the sole head to head 2014 on grass in 3 sets.
  • Erakovic is the kind of player who has to go through qualifying to get a shot at a tournament. She has had to do that here.
  • She retired in Sacramento recently and as you know that can signal an underlying injury concern.
  • Konjuh retired at Eastbourne but had a reasonable Wimbledon, beating top ranked Begu and Cibulkova in 3 sets.
  • Ana has lost to 37th and 93rd recently on hard. She had a good Dubai on hard. No outstanding hard court form. I do think she may be good enough here today though.

ATP Kitzbuhel - clay court

Joao Sousa v M Youzhny - 1.44 Joao

  • 37th v 89th.
  • No head to heads.
  • 11 losses in 14 matches for Sousa is hardly the form of a rock solid favourite.
  • 8 losses in 11 on clay is beginning to make Sousa layable.
  • Youzhny has lost to 91st and 84th recently on clay so that form hardly screams out reliability.
  • 4 consecutive clay losses, 2 of those losses saw both players win a set.
  • I would tentatively lay Sousa if Sousa wins the first set, although Youzhny tends to go in fits and starts and is inconsistent.

Maximilian Marterer v Dusan Lajovic - 1.69 Dusan

Andrey Kuznetsov v Miljan Zekic - 1.11 Andrey

  • 87th v 214th.
  • Andrey is a recent clay semi finalist in Bastad.
  • He plays a player with 4 3 setters in 5 matches, the other 2 setter saw one tie breaker.
  • Miljan should not be winning 2-0 if winning the first set.

Thomaz Bellucci v Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.51 Alex

  • Would the real Dolgo please stand up? Lord knows which Dolgo turns up today. A huge talent but temperamental.
  • 54th v 82nd.
  • 3-0 Dolgo in head to heads and all recently.
  • 8 losses in 8 for Belluci on clay suggests he is opposable on this surface.
  • Dolgo was a finalist on clay in Bastad (the good Dolgo) but went out first round in Gstaad in 3 sets (the bad Dolgo).
  • Bellucci looks layable if winning the first set.

Nikoloz Basilashvili v Sebastian Ofner - 1.61 Nik

  • 61st v 277th.
  • No head to heads.
  • 3 consecutive clay court losses for Basil.
  • Challenger form on clay for Ofner.
  • Again the opponent of Basil is a relative unknown.

WTA Washington - Hard court

Lauren Davis v Aryna Sabalenka - 1.44 Davis

Francoise Abanda v Julia Goerges - 1.27 Julia

  • 185th v 45th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Abanda has not played since Wimbledon and is a player who tends to go through qualifiers to get to the main event.
  • Apart from winning a 25K event in 2016 on hard, Abanda's hard court form tends to see her cut short quickly in tournaments.
  • Julia is a recent finalist on clay in Bucharest but retired in Bastad her last event.
  • This sounds caution for this match. She retired with a thigh complaint that day.
  • Factor that into your calculations. A thigh problem affects all aspects of the match.

Bianca Andreescu v Camila Giorgi - 1.38 Camila

  • 188th v 90th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Bianca is a 25K and 100K event player so hard to quantify her form.
  • Giorgi has not played since Wimbledon.
  • Giorgi is a semi finalist in Asia on hard but the players she played against are all lowly ranked. She failed to get our of qualifiers in Doha.
  • A match to leave alone I think.

Risa Ozaki v Sara Errani - 1.83 Sara

  • 70th v 110th.
  • Errani won in 2 sets on hard in the Austrialian Open this year.
  • 9 defeats in 10 in all competitions for Risa. Hardly compelling stuff is it?
  • Risa went through qualifiers at Indian Wells and Miami on hard. She did beat Goerges and Bertens on this surface
  • 9 losses in 12 on hard for Errani.
  • Both players are in poor form so I am loathe to get involved here.