Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

We can normally rely on the shorties to eventually score, unless they are French of course. Pliskova plays again. Backable at 12.5 last match, is she in as giving a mood today? If I am going to do a live chat it will be on Twitter @drtclub but this is a rest day.

17:00 - Armenia v Denmark - 1.43 Denmark

  • A tight Group E sees 3 teams vying for position. Denmark are the 3rd side. Armenia are out of it.
  • No draw yet for the Armenians sees all defeats bar 2 wins at home v Montenegro and Kazakhstan. Montenegro are 2nd in the group and led 0-2 before losing 3-2.
  • Denmark only won 1-0 when these 2 met earlier.
  • What is with the Montenegro result? It looks very anomolous.
  • The Danes are full of goals. Only Armenia away and Romania at home has stopped them scoring at least 2 goals.
  • What to make of Denmark's brilliant 4-0 win v Poland?
  • Hard to evaluate this match given that Montenegran result. It may suggest laying the Danes if the Danes lead 0-2 as the value angle in?

17:00 - Azerbaijan v San Marino - 1.09 Azerbaijan

  • Germany and Northern Ireland dominate Group C. Azerbaijan are in a cluster vying for 3rd place. I am not sure what value 3rd place holds, maybe lucky loser?
  • Azerbaijan only won 0-1 in San Marino.
  • San Marino has scored only 1 goal this campaign.
  • 4 consecutive defeats for Azerbaijan, 3 of those defeats v the big 2.
  • I would tentatively go with 1-0, 2-0, 4-0 today as Azerbaijani plays. As they look a very limited side, I would not back these correct scores until a good period of 0-0.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, keep the faith in the Azerbaijanis.

19:45 - England v Slovakia - 1.41 England

  • Eng-er-land top the group F standings.Slovakia, Scotland and Slovenia are all in with a shout with 3 matches remaining.
  • England are unbeaten and built on defence. Only Scotland has scored against them.
  • They beat Slovakia 0-1 after a Slovakian red card and a 90th minute winner. Wholly unconvincing.
  • After 1-0 losses to England and Slovenia, Slovakia have 5 wins.
  • I think 0-0 is backable here pre-match. This Slovak side are really tough to break down. It helps having the likes of Skrtel in the defence.
  • A 'when will they score?' match.

19:45 - Slovenia v Lithuania - 1.37 Slovenia

  • Slovenia are another side built on defence, albeit their opening qualifier was a 2-2 draw with Lithuania. And that was coming back from 2-0 down!
  • Since then, Slovenia has conceded 0-0-0-1-0-1 and scored 1-0-1-0-2-0 so they need those clean sheets.
  • 2 Slovenia 1-0 defeats came away from home.
  • Lithuania's only win was v Malta which pretty much gives you a picture of their abilities.
  • In 4 consecutive matches, Lithuania has conceded at least 2 goals.
  • With such a tight Group F, and with England facing a sticky Slovak side, Slovenia must see this as a home win against a team they should beat. My concern is the lack of Slovenian goals.
  • I am with Slovenia throughout this match.

19:45 - Scotland v Malta - 1.07 Scotland

  • The 2-2 with England re-ignited the Scottish fire. The made sure against Lithuania with a 0-3 win.
  • That's 2 wins and a 2-2 draw (which should have seen a win really) for the Scots. They are meeting Malta at the right time, 5 goals in 2 games and brimming with confidence.
  • With one of England and Slovakia likely to drop points tonight in Group F, Scotland must win to take advantage.
  • They only drew 1-1 at home to Lithuania, a superb trading match, 1-0 win v Slovenia and 2-2 v England.
  • Malta have lost every match.The Scots put 5 past them in Malta and did concede.
  • Usually Malta lose to nil away so 3-0, 5-0, 6-0 for me this evening as fun correct scores. I will, as ever, delay entry and hope for a 0-0 for a while.

19:45 - Northern Ireland v Czech Republic - 2.84 NI

  • The market cannot pick a favourite in this match.
  • Northern Ireland are 7 points clear of Czechs in Group C.
  • NI's only loss came v Germany. In all other matches, they kept a clean sheet and have won their last 4 matches. A 0-0 with the Czechs away from home.
  • A mixed bag for the Czechs. Wins only v Norway and San Marino. Their only goals came v Norway (twice), San Marino and Germany where they equalised late on.
  • As NI are built on defence, is this another match to back 0-0 pre match. I tend to look for a lay trade at halftime in 0-0's.

19:45 - Germany v Norway - 1.14 Germany

  • 0-3 the last time these 2 met and now Germany has home advantage.
  • 5 points clear in Group C, with 3 matches remaining, a win today for Germany should see qualification guaranteed.
  • All wins to date for Ze Germans, although they needed a late goal to see off the Czechs.
  • Norway look a sorry bunch. 3 consecutive away defeats includes Azerbaijan! Yikes!
  • Germany tend to score 2 goals at least and not concede at home. let that be your template this evening.
  • 1.14 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum.

19:45 - Poland v Kazakhstan - 1.11 Poland

  • Poland still sit atop Group E but only 3 points lead.
  • 2-3-2-3-2-3-0 goals scored by the Poles. Suddenly blunt in attack against a Denmark siding smashing them for 4.
  • The Poles drew 2-2 away at Kazakhstan.The Poles have kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 consecutive home wins saw both teams score and Poles quite naturally needing to score 2 goals at least.
  • It is not 'sexy time' for Borat's boys.No win yet, and 4 consecutive defeats.
  • We might see both teams score today so note that, particularly if the Kazak's score first. Poland need the win and at home tend to have 2 goals in them to secure the win.

19:45 - Montenegro v Romania - 2.62 Montenegro

  • Montenegro are 2nd in the group E but the market expects a tough encounter.
  • Romania's only wins came v Armenia.
  • Romania have scored 0-0-0-1-1 in their last 5 matches. Therein lies their Achilles Heel. IF Romania score first, are they likely to score a 2nd? Not on current form. This suggests laying the Romanians if they score first.
  • These 2 drew 1-1 the last time they met.That was Montenegro's only draw.
  • I will stick with the above angle tonight.

US OPEN

Karolina Pliskova v Jennifer Brady - 1.18 Pliskova

  • You are taking the Plis with those odds. You could have backed Pliskova at 12.5 last match and, as we see, she won!
  • 1.18 odds is far too short for a Plis shakier than Shakin Stevens on a wobble board.
  • If we add into the mix Brady as an American at home, we have a recipe for more struggling and more great trades and high odds.
  • Americans have been strong this US Open (go USA!).
  • 2 consecutive 3 setters shows you Plis's credentials. Maintain faith in her unto the death. The way to back a world number 1 at 12.5. Wait for her opponent to be on advantage, on her opponent's serve, on match point.
  • 2 3 setters for Brady to date.
  • This is all about the Plis. Let's hope she continues giving!!

David Goffin v Andrey Rublev - 1.53 Goffin

  • 10th v 117th but don't let the rankings put you off Rublev.
  • No head to heads.  Monfils retired in Goff's last match so the Goff dominance there was suspect.
  • Brilliant Goff 5 set win v Pella. Vindicates my thinking that the Goff's odds tend to rise in play.
  • 4 set and 5 set for the Goff so he is battling.
  • 4 setter last time for Rublev. He beat Dimitrov in 3 sets and if that is true form, it is very compelling with Dimi winning the Cincinnati masters.
  • I can see a protracted battle. I would like to back the Goff if he breaches 2.00 or higher in play.

Rafael Nadal v Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.15 Nadal

  • 5th v 82nd.
  • A very recent Nadal win on hard in Brisbane but we must look at what Dolgo is doing here at the US Open.
  • He is wreaking havoc. He beat Tomas Berdych and his service game looks solid. he then absolutely dismantled Troiki with a 6-0 6-1 first 2 sets display.
  • I feel that Nadal is layable here at 1.15 if Dolgo can maintain this level of form which has come from out of nowhere.
  • with 2 4 setters himself, Nadal has lost the invincibility of the clay courts where he did not drop a set.
  • I hope for some Dolgo magic tonight.It will be a cracking match to watch if Dolgo maintains his current level.

Daria Kasatkina v Kaia Kanepi - 1.54 Daria

  • 29th v 513th and a feeling Kaia's ranking may be down to prolonged lay off?
  • Daria is a relative unknown to me. Suddenly 29th in the world.
  • Kanepi has played 6 matches to get here. We profited last match in backing Osaka to get a set back and so that happened but Kanepi pushed on 3rd set.
  • Daria's easy win over Ostapenko was eye catching but I was assuming this to be the Ostapenko of Wimbledon. It was obviously not.
  • 2 relatively unknown players for me. Faith in the market? Lay Kanepi if Kanepi wins the first set?

Coco Vandeweghe v Lucie Safarova - 1.77 Coco

  • 23rd v 28th.
  • Coco is an American at the US Open and making home crowds work for her.
  • Safarova clearly has the better of recent head to heads 3-0, overall 3-1.
  • The last head to head was on hard and a 3 set win. Is that a template for today? Lay the first set winner?
  • Both players have had 3 setters, 2 in 3 matches this US Open.
  • Take a chance and lay the first set winner today. Another tough to get exacting angles on.

Juan Martin Del Potro v Dominic Thiem - 1.86 Del

  • 'Sick note' Del Boy seems to be holding up He has the best of head to heads, albeit one was here last year where Thiem retired.
  • The ease with with Del Boy beat Agut in straight sets was very eye-catching, particularly if you take a look at Agut's recent form.
  • 230th, 130th, 51st for Thiem this US Open. He is yet to be tested.
  • Del Boy does allow the odd tie breaker. He has had 3 so far and that could be a Thiem way in.
  • Here is a list of the types of player to beat Del Boy on hard. Raonic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Federer, Nishikori, Shapalov (Canadian in Canada), Dimitrov. Bar Shapalov, all top 10 players.
  • Thiem is exactly that. 9th in the world. Based on this assumption, Del Boy should not win 3-0 today. I did, though, think that v Agut (13th) but he simply demolished him.
  • A fascinating match. ON top 10 form, Del Boy should not be winning. Is that enough to oppose a 1-0 or 2-0 set win?