Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It is a quiet day today, arguably a day off. Chelsea you'd think will not tolerate a second consecutive defeat. Enough to side with a Chelsea with attacking concerns? Lazio and Genoa looks like the archetypal Attack v Defence. Remember that Juventus only won 1-0 v Genoa.
Genoa scorelines away are generally 0-0 or 1-0 defeats. Las Palmas and Malaga is as appealing as being stuck in a lift with Noel Edmunds.

20:00 - Watford v Chelsea - 1.65 Chelsea

  • 4-3 and 4-2 Chelsea in the last 2 head to heads.

Watford (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home and 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Decent home form apart from the extremes. i.e. losses v 1st and 2nd, and 17th, 18th and 19th.
  • 3-3 at home v 3rd, 1-1 v 5th.

Chelsea (4th)

  • Only 5 defeats and a coupon busting loss v Bournemouth last match saw Chelsea at about these odds.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten away v top 10.Losses away v 12th and 14th.
  • 12 goals scored in either half.

Conclusions

  • A shock loss for Chelsea.Only once have they lost 2 consecutive matches and those were v Man City and Palace.
  • Watford are in poor form. They are scoring and conceding at home so lay Watford if Watford score first.
  • Chelsea's line up was mixed last match and they paid for that. If they revert to type, they should not lose today.

19:45 - Lazio v Genoa - 1.47 Lazio

  • 2-2 and 2-3 Lazio in the last 2 head to heads.

Lazio (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats. Lost their last match, albeit v AC Milan.
  • 3 consecutive home wins, scoring 4-5-3 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • v 12th and lower, 10 wins and a 0-0 draw.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Genoa (16th)

  • Only 5 over 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 losses.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 4 1-0 losses; 4 0-0's; 2 0-1 wins away from home.
  • No win home and away v top 12 teams.
  • 3 0-0's and 3 1-0 losses v top 11 away.

Conclusions

  • What a contrast! Lazio scoring for fun, playing a Genoa side obviously adept defensively but rather one dimensional. V top 11 away, Genoa have had 3 1-0 defeats and 3 0-0's. I did point this out when Juventus hosted Genoa and that ended only 1-0.
  • So Watch out for an ultra defensive display from Genoa. It does seem though that Lazio have the ammo to score. Will this be 0-0 for a while? Another 1-0 defeat? Or will Lazio score 2+ goals as they tend to.
  • It makes for a niggle match.
  • Value seekers might want to back 0-0 pre-match and hope Genoa and their defence are the dominant force first half. I tend to cash out at halftime.

20:00 - Las Palmas v Malaga - 2.3 Las Palmas

  • 2-1 Malaga and 1-3 Las Palmas in the last 2 head to heads.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • The bottom 2 teams in the league makes for an unappealing match on the face of it.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Malaga 1-3 earlier this season.
  • 14 of 22 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Malaga (20th)

  • 3 1-0 defeats, a 1-1 and a 0-0 in the last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 of the last 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents scored first in 9/11 away.

Conclusions

  • The bottom 2 in Spanish La Liga. Sums it up really!!
  • These 2 concede heavily 2nd half so you might want to take on any 0-0 in the second half.
  • But please remember that these 2 are the bottom 2 because they are unreliable. Malaga for instance have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.