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A quiet footballing day allows for a focus on the tennis (again!). I'll be tweeting again if there are any trades @drtclub and will be following football in-play stats for any possible football trades.

18:00 - GAIS v Trelleborgs - 2.48 GAIS

  • 1-1 and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 6th in the Swedish Superettan after 10 matches.

GAIS

  • Draw, Win, Win last 3 home matches.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came away.
  • Tend to score v 7th and lower and failed to score v 4th and higher. What will happen v 6th?

Trelleborgs

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Losses this season came away v 2nd and 3rd.
  • 1-1 draws v 11th, 12th and 13th.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Trelleborgs today. GAIS have failed to score v top 4 but score v 7th and lower and play 6th today.
  • I would lay GAIS if they scored first given Trelleborgs have scored 4 goals in 2 separate matches recently.

FRENCH OPEN

Navarro v Simona Halep - 1.35 Halep

  • 25th v 5th.
  • Interestingly Navarro have won the last 2 head to heads on clay albeit one was a walkover. It is in fact 5/5 on clay for Carla v Simona.
  • Both players have a perfect 2-0 record so far in this French Open.
  • I think that we will see a 3-setter today if Carla remembers that she has a perfect clay record v Simona.
  • I would prefer Simona to win the first set as her odds will be shorter to lay than Navarro's.

Svitolina v Martic - 1.22 Svitolina

  • 13th v 369th.
  • On rankings alone, surely this is Svitolina's?
  • Head to heads from 2014.
  • Martic went through qualifiers to get here.She beat the likes of Madison Keys in 3 sets and beat Sevastova 6-1 6-1 - 26th in the rankings.
  • With Linette taking Svitolina's 2nd set to 7-5 I think we will see a Martic fight back if Martic loses the first set, at least enough I'd hope to see an odds move.

Andy Murray v Karen Khachanov - 1.16 Murray

  • 1st v 56th.
  • No head to heads.
  • 3 tie breakers for Murray in his last 2 matches. He has been made to work and that boy Karen may make him work today.
  • 3 tie breakers v John Isner for Karen.
  • Karen beat Berdych in 3 straight sets. Berdych does tend to get beaten consistently by Murray.
  • For me Andy is layable at 1.17 odds. Far too short against a Karen who simply won't go away. We lose little laying at such short odds. Murray's odds v Del Potro exceeded evens so remember that.
  • I would also lay Andy if Andy wins the first set. Odds will be even lower.

Verdasco v Nishikori - 1.63 Nishikori

  • Note the odds. Similar to Raonic yesterday and he struggled.
  • Expectation from the market is for same today.
  • 36th v 7th.
  • 3 consecutive recent Nishikori wins in head to heads.
  • 5 setter here in France last year, and 2 tie breakers last head to head, one won by Nishi, one won by Verdasco.
  • 4 sets, 3 sets (1 tie breaker), 5 sets for Nishikori. Impressed by his win over an in-form Chung and a note for us that Nishikori's odds are likely to be higher than 1.63 in play.
  • 5 sets for Verdasco v Herbert.
  • I cannot see a 3-0 today. With Nishikori and tie breakers being possible we saw last head to head, that both players won a tie breaker.
  • I would lay any 2-0 or 2-1 leader.
  • Nishi's odds may be too high to lay off the bat. I would lay at 1.3 and would back at evens or so.

Anderson v Cilic - 1.3 Cilic

  • 66th v 8th.
  • Head to heads from 2014. Still relevant? 4 sets US Open Cilic win and prior to that, both players won a tie breaker each in another Cilic win.
  • What does this hint at? 1.3 may be too short for Cilic?
  • Anderson has battled so far this French Open. He will not be winning 3-0! 2 tie breakers first match; 4 sets v Kyrgios; 5 setter v Edmund as I suggested in research (2 tie breakers and a 7-5).
  • 3 3-set wins for Cilic who is yet to be tested. He has been class apart so far. 40th, 93rd, 169th are the ranked players cilic has beaten.
  • No Cilic match has gone above 6-3.
  • An interesting match with Anderson clearly up for the fight.
  • 7th ranked Nishikori beat him in 3 sets (first to 2 sets format).
  • I do think Cilic will win today and on that basis any significant rise in his odds I will back.

Wawrinka v Monfils - 1.37 Wawrinka

  • 3rd v 17th.
  • Head to heads come from 2011 so not really relevant.
  • This is the shortest odds so far between these 2.
  • Stan has had a tie breaker in each of his 3 matches which suggests he could be in with a chance of losing a set if Gael Tilsley can get him to 6-6.
  • Gasquet retired v Monfils so an easy time of it last round.
  • Tough to call as Monfils is one of a dwindling number of Frenchies left. My hope will be that Stan's odds rise at some point to enable a back at reasonably high odds.

Garcia v Cornet - 1.81 Cornet

  • We saw with Sam Stosur yesterday that this should be a 3 setter. It happened yesterday and 1.81 odds suggests a tight match.
  • 24th v 41st.
  • 2010 head to head is irrelevant.
  • Cornet was excellent v Radwanska who arguably didn't turn up.
  • She has beaten 2 top 20 players (one was top 10) so I think Cornet will be very competitive today.
  • Garcia has beaten largely high ranked players.
  • Despite her surname, she is French and this battle of the Frenchies should be a 3 setter.
  • Lay the first set winner.

Royg v Pliskova - 1.22 Pliskova

  • 105th v 3rd and again such a rankings differential should see shorter odds for Pliskova.
  • 2 consecutive 3 set matches for Royg so she should not be winning 2-0 if winning the first set.
  • 69th, 88th, 83rd ranked players have lost to Pliskova. In 2 matches the first set went to 7-5 so a hint that the first set should be a tight one.