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ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Hull City v Aston Villa - 2.64 Aston Villa

  • 1-1 and 0-0 last season.
  • 18th v 4th from last season.
  • Hull did not beat a top 8 side home and away.
  • Aston Villa were solid at home. Away they were vulnerable. Outside of the top 10, Aston Villa lost only 3 matches.
  • If it's 'as you were'. Aston Villa should not lose.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

17:00 - Vendsyssel FF v AaB - 2.18 AaB

  • The last 2 head to heads were in friendlies.
  • Identical results for both sides. 2 wins and a loss.
  • 3-3-0 goals scored by Vendsyssel. 1-2-0 goals scored by AaB.
  • Little to work with. The market is slightly with the home side.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

17:00 - Elfsborg v Ostersunds FK - 2.58 Ostersunds

  • Ostersunds are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.

Elfsborg (12th)

  • A draw and 2 consecutive losses in the last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side albeit 3 draws v the top 4, 2 of those being 0-0.

Ostersunds (5th)

  • 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Only away loss came v 16th.1-0 win v Elfsborg at home this season.

Conclusions

  • On very recent form, I'd be with Ostersunds today. The market is not as confident, maybe because elfsborg are unbeaten in 5 matches at home.
  • It could be best case draw for Elfsborg but on form they should not win.

17:00 - Sundsvall v Norrkoping - 1.87 Norrkoping

  • 2-2 and 1-0 Norrkoping.

Sundsvall (9th)

  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 0-0 at fulltime at home.
  • 2 home losses came v the top 5.
  • 3/3 losses v top 3.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Norrkoping (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats. One came last match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 away wins v 5th and 11th.
  • Only 1 win away v top 10.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would side with Norrrkoping, with only 3 defeats but note that they have only 1 win away v top 10 teams.
  • I would, based on season-long form, side with Norrkoping here today.
  • Note the 2nd half goals bias. So if 0-0 at halftime, take that 0-0 on second half.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

17:00 - Varnamo v Landskrona - 2.62 Varnamo

  • 2-0 Landskrona in the only recent head to head.

Varnamo (16th)

  • Only 2 wins. Did win their last match.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats.
  • 0-0 v 12th and 2-0 v 14th at home. Important, as they play 13th.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 at home.

Landskrona (13th)

  • 4 losses and a win last 5 matches.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 away matches.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 6 away.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 2. 2-0 at home v Varnamo.

Conclusions

  • There is always a reason why the favourite is 2.62 odds. There is a cogent argument for both teams. Varnamo suddenly keep clean sheets v 12th and lower, 0-0 and 2-0.
  • Landskrona 3/3 wins v the bottom 2.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats v 5 losses in 6 away matches. This is not Barcelona v Real Madrid!

17:00 - GAIS v IK Brage - 2.04 GAIS

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

GAIS (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • 4/5 defeats came v the top 4.
  • 2 home defeats came v top 3.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Brage (5th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • Only 1 away loss v 12th.
  • Only 1 away win v top 12 (4 draws, 3 0-0's).

Conclusions

  • Both teams in good nick. But only 1 clean sheet for GAIS suggests that they will concede. Strong 2nd half bias for GAIS so you may want to take on 0-0 if 0-0 2nd half, despite Brage's 3 0-0's away v the top 12.
  • With only 3 defeats, you'd have to side with Brage, despite only 1 away win v the top 12.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Brann v Start - 1.43 Brann

  • 3 consecutive Brann wins, albeit 2 came in 2016.

Brann (2nd)

  • Could go top with a win today.
  • Only 1 loss came last home match.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 3, 2 of the wins were 0-1 away.
  • Clean sheets at home v 7th and lower.

Start (15th)

  • All 4 wins came at home.
  • 6 defeats in 7 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 4 away.
  • 100% defeats away v top 6 conceding at least 2 goals.

Conclusions

  • On form, Brann should be scoring 2+ goals and winning today. Simple angle. It could even be a win to nil, so 2-0, 3-0, any other home score might come in.