Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

2 good angles yesterday. Celta Vigo scored first in the first half. Did you lay them in the halftime market? 1-2 Real Madrid at halftime. Porto were 0-1 down at halftime and this 1.14 shot was available at evens for the 2nd half. They won. Only 2 matches today and they make little appeal from the pre-match research. Angles to cling to? Only 1 draw in 13 matches Brighton enough to lay any late draw today? 2-2 angle Malaga v Espanyol in the battle of the strugglers?

19:45 - Brighton v C Palace - 2.66 Brighton

  • Arsenal yesterday was a timely reminder that Premier League sides will make wholesale team changes and, as is the case lately, not prioritize this competition.
  • Add to that fact 2.66 odds for the favourite and we have a match which is far too tough to call. I will research given it is a quiet day.

Brighton

  • Form all competitions home and away - only 1 win in 11 matches; 2 consecutive draws.
  • Form at home - in their last 13 matches, only Atl Madrid, Man City and Liverpool have beaten them at home; 6 draws though in the last 8 matches.
  • FA Cup home and away - only 1 draw in 13 matches; 3 defeats in 4 matches against the likes of Hull City and Lincoln.
  • FA Cup at home - only Arsenal have beaten them at home since November 2008.

C Palace

  • Form all competitions home and away - only 1 loss in 11 matches was v Arsenal.
  • Form away - unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • FA Cup home and away - only 1 loss in 9 was against Man City; noticeably since 2015, only Liverpool and Man City has beaten Palace in the FA Cup.
  • FA Cup away - 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 away.

Conclusions

  • Caveat....teams attitude to the cup may be highly suspect!
  • Team news very important. On FA Cup form, Brighton's recent losses v Hull and Lincoln is in stark contrast to Palace's only 1 loss in 9 and 5 wins and a draw in 6 away. Slight preference for Palace today. But yesterday I made a strong case for Arsenal but their much-changed side did not pass muster.
  • I suspect both sides will prefer Premier League survival to a Cup run.

20:00 - Malaga v Espanyol - 2.76 Malaga

  • 2 score draws and a 0-1 Espanyol in the last 3 head to heads.

Malaga (19th)

  • Only 3 wins but they have come within the last 8 matches and in 2 of their last 4 home matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came within the last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw in a cluster of home matches played v 14th-17th. Look at the position of today's opponents!
  • Conceded in all bar 1 at home.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol (15th)

  • Last 3 wins came at home and were all 1-0 wins, including the scalp of Atl Madrid.
  • No away win.
  • No win in 8 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 1-0 away v 18th and 2-2 away v 20th.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • It looks like a day off today. An FA Cup with a 2.66 odds favourite, and a Spanish La Liga match with a 2.76 odds favourite.
  • In this match I would speculatively back 2-2 here as a trading angle. Why? Malaga scored 2 goals and 3 goals at home v 14th and 17th. Espanyol had a 2-2 away v 20th in the league.
  • Malaga have conceded in all bar 1 at home, and Espanyol have conceded in their last 5 away matches.