2 good angles yesterday. Celta Vigo scored first in the first half. Did you lay them in the halftime market? 1-2 Real Madrid at halftime. Porto were 0-1 down at halftime and this 1.14 shot was available at evens for the 2nd half. They won. Only 2 matches today and they make little appeal from the pre-match research. Angles to cling to? Only 1 draw in 13 matches Brighton enough to lay any late draw today? 2-2 angle Malaga v Espanyol in the battle of the strugglers?
19:45 - Brighton v C Palace - 2.66 Brighton
- Arsenal yesterday was a timely reminder that Premier League sides will make wholesale team changes and, as is the case lately, not prioritize this competition.
- Add to that fact 2.66 odds for the favourite and we have a match which is far too tough to call. I will research given it is a quiet day.
- Form all competitions home and away - only 1 win in 11 matches; 2 consecutive draws.
- Form at home - in their last 13 matches, only Atl Madrid, Man City and Liverpool have beaten them at home; 6 draws though in the last 8 matches.
- FA Cup home and away - only 1 draw in 13 matches; 3 defeats in 4 matches against the likes of Hull City and Lincoln.
- FA Cup at home - only Arsenal have beaten them at home since November 2008.
- Form all competitions home and away - only 1 loss in 11 matches was v Arsenal.
- Form away - unbeaten in 5 matches.
- FA Cup home and away - only 1 loss in 9 was against Man City; noticeably since 2015, only Liverpool and Man City has beaten Palace in the FA Cup.
- FA Cup away - 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 away.
- Caveat....teams attitude to the cup may be highly suspect!
- Team news very important. On FA Cup form, Brighton's recent losses v Hull and Lincoln is in stark contrast to Palace's only 1 loss in 9 and 5 wins and a draw in 6 away. Slight preference for Palace today. But yesterday I made a strong case for Arsenal but their much-changed side did not pass muster.
- I suspect both sides will prefer Premier League survival to a Cup run.
20:00 - Malaga v Espanyol - 2.76 Malaga
- 2 score draws and a 0-1 Espanyol in the last 3 head to heads.
- Only 3 wins but they have come within the last 8 matches and in 2 of their last 4 home matches.
- 2 wins and a draw last 4 home matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets came within the last 4 matches.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 2 wins and a draw in a cluster of home matches played v 14th-17th. Look at the position of today's opponents!
- Conceded in all bar 1 at home.
- 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Last 3 wins came at home and were all 1-0 wins, including the scalp of Atl Madrid.
- No away win.
- No win in 8 away matches.
- Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
- 1-0 away v 18th and 2-2 away v 20th.
- 4 of 5 goals scored away came 1st half.
- It looks like a day off today. An FA Cup with a 2.66 odds favourite, and a Spanish La Liga match with a 2.76 odds favourite.
- In this match I would speculatively back 2-2 here as a trading angle. Why? Malaga scored 2 goals and 3 goals at home v 14th and 17th. Espanyol had a 2-2 away v 20th in the league.
- Malaga have conceded in all bar 1 at home, and Espanyol have conceded in their last 5 away matches.