Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you for a live chat webinar at 14:30 today. The link is https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/9127024420583607555
There is a shortlist at DRT Facebook page. Pre-Champions League and Pre-Europa League for some teams may muddle with the form.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Tottenham v Arsenal - 2.06 Tottenham

  • 2 red hot strikers on display here in Kane and Aubameyang.
  • This is a Norf Landaan (I think that's how it's pronounced) derby.
  • 1-1, 2-2, 1-1, 2-0 Tottenham, 2-0 Arsenal last 5 head to heads.
  • No formal research here given the derby status and the key signing for Arsenal.
  • A quick look at the form sees Arsenal continue to under perform away from home with 2 recent losses v Bournemouth and Swansea.
  • Arsenal are yet to beat top 4 away and have scored 1 goal max in matches v top 9 away.
  • Tottenham's only home loss was in a London derby v Chelsea.
  • Too tough to call but on form Arsenal away from home seem opposable almost by default.

15:00 - Everton v Crystal Palace - 2.32 Everton

  • 2 new managers so head to heads rather irrelevant.

Everton (10th)

  • 12 matches the focus under Sam Allardyce.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Loss (v Man Utd), Draw, Win at home under Big Sam. Solid stuff.3 of his 4 losses came away from home.
  • Theo Walcott is a key new signing for Big Sam and must be acknowledged. He beat Leicester at home with 2 goals.
  • Everton have conceded in their last 3 matches.

Palace (14th)

  • 22 matches under Woy Hodgson.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 3 losses in 17 matches came v Arsenal twice and Tottenham - London teams and also top 6 teams.
  • Failed to score 2 goals in their last 4 matches.
  • 6 of 7 defeats away came v top 7 teams.

Conclusions

  • A 1-1 or 2-1 appeals today. Everton have surprisingly beaten all bar 1 home side outside the top 7.
  • Palace have only 3 losses in 17 matches.
  • I would start with a 2-1/1-2 pre match back here and hope to cash out at 1-1.
  • Slight favour for Everton today who are clearly solid at home all season and under Allardyce and have a fresh hungry striker in Walcott.

15:00 - Stoke City v Brighton - 2.26 Stoke

Stoke (18th)

  • 4 matches under new manager Paul Lambert.
  • Losses came away v Man City and Bournemouth. Wins at home for Lambert, 2-0 v Huddersfield and 0-0 draw v Watford.
  • They meet another promoted side in Brighton.

Brighton (13th)

  • Only 3 points above relegation.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • v 11th -17th away, unbeaten keeping 4 of 5 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • I don't fancy a ticket to this one. It could be a defensive match.
  • I would nod towards Stoke here given Lambert have 2 consecutive clean sheets at home v promoted sides.
  • Brighton have 1 goal in 7 aways so Stoke are delighted to meet them in that current sequence.
  • 0-0, 1-0 are possibles today. I must mention Brighton are unbeaten v 11th-17th away. Significant or are Stoke a different animal under Paul Lambert?

15:00 - Swansea v Burnley  - 2.54 Swansea

  • Very hard to read this match what with a new manager for the Swans beating the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal at home and 2 score draws away v Newcastle and Leicester.
  • This is, therefore, not the Swans of old and we simply don't know how they will play today. We can assume confidence is high and Burnley will be up against it.
  • This is a Burnley side who have only scored 2 goals in a match once in their last 11 matches.
  • I do feel the Swans will get a positive result today but the small sample of matches under the new manager is not enough to warrant extreme confidence.

15:00 - West Ham v Watford - 2.6 West Ham

  • Like the match above, the market cannot split these 2.
  • New manager Moyes for West Ham so the focus really should be on his matches only.

West Ham (12th)

  • 15 games in for Moyes as manager.
  • Only 2 losses in the last 11 matches came away from home.
  • I have mentioned this pattern before. Against top 10 teams, West Ham have scored 1-1-0-1 and against lesser lights they have scored 3-2-3-2-4-1-1-1.
  • This pattern of scoring heavily has dropped off in the last 3 matches though.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All wins bar 1 came v 17th and lower.
  • 10 of 14 home goals scored 2nd half.

Watford (11th)

  • 7 defeats in 8 away.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Scored 2 goals + in 7 away albeit 4 of those were v 15th and lower.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v top 14 teams.

Conclusions

  • I hope you are learning to read matches by the odds on offer. 2.6 the favourite tells its story. An unclear match.
  • I do think both teams could score today. West Ham did tend to target 2+ goals v lesser lights but since a superb scoring run they have scored 1-1-1 v lesser sides only.
  • Not West Ham's strong 2nd half scoring.

17:30 - Man City v Leicester - 1.24 Man City

  • 2-1 and 0-2 Man City in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Man City have had W/W double results in 10/12 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 10/12 home matches.
  • Leicester have conceded first in 11/17 away matches against top-six teams.

Man City (1st)

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • 12 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals.
  • Have lost twice at halftime at home.
  • 7 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 10/13 at home.
  • Champions League match on 13th February 2018.

Leicester (8th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 came at home.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 3 2-1 defeats in 4 away.
  • 2-0 and 2-1 away v top 3.
  • Not beaten top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • City have won each of their last 4 pre-Champions League matches so that should not impact today (although a look at team news v important pre-Champions League).
  • Assuming form is upheld, City should be scoring 2 goals in a 2-0 or 2-1 win v Leicester. Leicester were woeful v Everton recently,scoring only via a penalty which makes their sudden transformation at home all the more mystifying.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on City leading in 10/13 at halftime at home.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

 15:00 - Middlesbrough v Reading - 1.63 Boro

  • 2-1 and 0-2 Boro in the last 2 head to heads.

Middlesbrough (9th)

  • 7 games in under Tony Pulis for Middlesbrough . Are we seeing the typical Pulis Anti-football?
  • Shy of the play-off places.
  • 4 clean sheets in the 7 matches under Pulis - coincidence?
  • Boro have failed to score in 3 matches at home under Pulis.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Season long a solid record v 17th and lower with 4 wins to nil and a 0-0 at home.

Reading (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 16 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A game Boro can win to nil today, under the right manager for a win to nil too. They have failed to score at home in 3 but are solid v 17th and lower.
  • Boro are the likeliest first goalscorers given Reading, if they score, will score most likely 2nd half.
  • I would be with Boro today and if 0-0 at halftime, target a 2-0, 2-1 scoreline.

15:00 - Wolves v QPR - 1.43 Wolves

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 QPR wins in head to heads.

Wolves (1st)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 9 wins in their last 11 at home. Shock recent defeat to Forest at home.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 at home.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

QPR (15th)

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten a top 17 side away.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 away v top 7.

Conclusions

  • QPR did beat Wolves earlier this season. Wolves did lose to Forest (16th) at home at similar odds to today's.
  • If QPR continue their away struggles, Wolves should gain revenge today.
  • I would lay any QPR lead.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Villarreal v Alaves - 1.74 Villareal

  • 2-1 Alaves and 0-3 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.

Villareal (5th)

  • 5 wins and a draw ended in loss last match.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Solid at home outside of the top 6.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Alaves (16th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • All defeats bar 2 wins away.

Conclusions

  • A feeling that worst case scenario for Villareal today will be a draw.
  • They tend to score 2+ goals in generally wins outside the top 7 at home. Alaves tend to lose away.
  • Villareal have conceded in their last 5 matches so you feel 2 goals are needed for a win today.

15:15 - Malaga v Atletico Madrid - 1.61 Atl Madrid

  • A Europa League match for Atl Madrid on the 15th February.
  • 0-1 and 2-0 Atl Madrid last 2 head to heads.

Malaga (20th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played top 6 at home. 100% losses away.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Atl Madrid should look to win today. Whilst Malaga are yet to meet top 5 at home, they have failed to score in several home matches.
  • Atl Madrid failed to score only 3 times.
  • Do note that Madrid tend to score 2nd half if not first half.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.26 Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid have had W/W double results in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams while Real Sociedad have had L/L double results in 7/8 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • Real Madrid have won 18/20 home matches against bottom-half teams.
  • 3-3-3 scored by Real Madrid in each of the last 3 head to heads.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • Woeful season relative to expectations.
  • Champions League match on 14th February v PSG.
  • Previously, Real Madrid have had 2 2-1 wins and a 1-2 loss in matches prior to Champions League matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats ended with a win last home match.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten still at halftime.
  • Unbeaten v 11th and lower so hope today.

Sociedad (14th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • 2-1 and 4-2 away v top 5.
  • Scored and conceded in defeats v top 4.

Conclusions

  • This pre-Champions League match might be tough for an out-of-form Real Madrid. Ronaldo has scored only 8 goals all season - Messi is on 20!!
  • If Sociedad score first and early, lay them in the halftime score market.
  • I do think both teams will score today. I would take on any Sociedad lead (remember they led 2-0 v Barca and lost 2-4).

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Spal  v AC Milan - 1.82 AC Milan

  • 2-0 Milan in the last head to head.
  • Milan play Ludogorets in the Europa League on the 15th February 2018.

SPAL (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • v 4th-13th at home, SPAL are unbeaten, albeit not played 5th-8th inclusive.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches v top 11 teams.

AC Milan (8th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches. Better form.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 loss in 15 matches v teams below them in the league.
  • Lost away 3-0 to 2nd bottom, 2-2 draw v  bottom, play 3rd bottom today.

Conclusions

  • Gattuso new manager first time in Europa League mid week. Will he be making changes today?
  • SPAL are in with a chance here . I think both teams can score on form with a 2-1/1-2 pre match correct score possibly tradable (2 recent 2-1 wins Milan).
  • Lay SPAL if SPAL scores first given they have conceded in their last 12 matches.

17:00 - Crotone v Atalanta - 1.9 Atalanta

  • 1-0 and 5-1 Atalanta in the last 2 head to heads.

Crotone (17th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws includes against an ailing Inter Milan.
  • Only lost 0-1 at home to Napoli recently so defence is their focus.
  • That said.... only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Emphatically, 10 defeats and a 1-1 v top 9 sides, failing to score in 9 of those matches.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Atalanta (7th)

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten v 15th and lower. Not played bottom 4 away yet though.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Crotone must have got some confidence from that 1-1 draw with Inter, or is that down to Inter loving the draw of late?
  • With only 4 clean sheets, this should clear the way for Atalanta to get on the scoresheet and not be beaten today. Solid form v 15th and lower for Atalanta suggests this.
  • Neither side have had a 0-0 so if 0-0 at halftime you know what to do!!

19:45 - Napoli v Lazio - 1.66 Napoli

  • 1-3 and 1-4 Napoli in the last 2 head to heads which came away from home.
  • Napoli play Leipzig in the Europa League on 15th February 2018.
  • Lazio play Steaua Bucharest on the 15th February 2018.

Napoli (1st)

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 7 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 3 home matches.
  • 0-1 and 0-0 v top 4 this season at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Lazio (3rd)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Beat Juventus 1-2 away so can be a threat on their day. A team known for goals, they have failed to score only once away.

Conclusions

  • A recent 0-0 for Lazio v Inter Milan away might signal the better team can tame this excellent forward line.
  • Napoli will be feeling very confident having mullered Lazio twice away from home.
  • Lazio could very well score today so note that and Napoli, if conceding, tend to concede first half.
  • Napoli have struggled v top 4 at home  with a 0-1 and 0-0 i.e. failing to score.
  • Value would be in backing 0-0 pre match and cashing out at halftime although it is not the logical course of action with top scorers Mertens and Immobile scoring for fun!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Hamburg - 1.35 Dortmund

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 Dortmund wins in head to heads.

Dortmund (4th)

  • Play Atalanta in the Europa League on 15th February 2018.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches after new management.
  • Scored and conceded in 14 of their last 16 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins v bottom 3.

Hamburg (17th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • Only 1 away win v bottom.

Conclusions

  • A post Aubameyang Dortmund suggests a foot into the unknown.
  • On Hamburg's away form alone, Hamburg should not be winning today.
  • Dortmund have a strong both teams to score pattern so note that if Hamburg score first.
  • Dortmund have stumbled pre-Champions League consistently but will that be the case in the Europa League?

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Mainz - 1.7 Hoff

  • 3-2 Hoff, 4-4, 4-0 Hoff and 2-3 Hoff in the last 4 head to heads.

Hoffenheim (9th)

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 1-0's at halftime at home, 3 0-0's.
  • Beat Mainz 2-3 away from home but v bottom 5 at home, 2 1-0 wins.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mainz (16th)

  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 9 matches and last 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • No win in 10 away.

Conclusions

  • A chance for the Hoff to get a positive result against a Mainz side who have not won away.
  • Mainz are conceding 2 goals too regularly. Can Hoff take advantage?
  • I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on an expectation for goals.
  • Mainz I would lay if scoring first.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Hertha Berlin - 1.58 Leverkusen

  • 2-6 Bayer  and 2-1 Hertha in the last 2 head to heads.

Leverkusen (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches was v Bayern Munich. Interestingly the last loss prior to that Bayern loss was v Hertha.
  • Failed to score in only their last match.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Score draws at home v 3rd, 4th, 9th and 13th may signal vulnerability.

Hertha Berlin (11th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 2 wins away but did beat 3rd 2-3.

Conclusions

  • I could see both teams score today with Hertha best case a score draw.
  • That implies laying any Hertha lead.
  • Leverkusen only failed to score last match but have scored in 10 at home.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v Schalke - 1.29 Bayern

  • 2 3-0 wins for Bayern in recent head to heads.

Bayern (1st)

  • 8 consecutive wins, 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 18 and last 10 at home.
  • 6 2-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • All wins v top 7, scoring 3 goals in 5 of 7 matches.

Schalke (5th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3-4-2 goals conceded away v top 6 teams.
  • Not beaten top 10 away.
  • 12 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No Champions League distractions for Bayern Munich suggests the win today. They are expected to score 2-4 goals today and could even get 2 goals before halftime.
  • Schalke struggle away to top 10. Having scored in 15 matches they could score and it is more likely to be a 2nd half goal.
  • A straightforward match it seems.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Utrecht v Zwolle - 1.74 Utrecht

  • 3-1 Utrecht and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Utrecht (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches.
  • 4 draws in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • Draws v other top 5.

Zwolle (4th)

  • 3 losses in 5 matches.
  • Yet to score in 4 matches v top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht have been reliable of late. They do though tend to draw v the top 4.
  • Zwolle on the other hand tend to not score v top 7. Obviously if the latter continues it is advantage home side.
  • Utrecht did struggle last match but scored a very late winner and 0-0 would not surprise here for a while with Zwolle not scoring but having 0-0's away v 5th and 7th.
  • Slight favour towards Utrecht in their reasonable recent form.

18:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - 1.4 PSV

  • 0-2 and 1-0 PSV in the last 2 head to heads.

Sparta (18th)

  • 9 defeats in 10 matches. Won their last home match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal home or away v top 10 teams.
  • Scored 7 of 9 goals at home in the first half.

PSV (1st)

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 11 wins and a 3-3 v 10th and lower.
  • Scored first in 9/11 away.

Conclusions

  • We should expect a PSV win tonight, possibly to nil.
  • If Sparta do score, lay them given they have yet to score that 2nd goal v top 10 teams.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Toulouse v Paris St-G - 1.22 PSG

  • 6-2 PSG last head to head.

Toulouse (15th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • Not met top 3 at home but 100% defeats when meeting top 4.
  • 5 of 7 wins have been 1-0 so need a defensive masterclass today!

PSG

  • Meet Real Madrid on the 14th February 2018 in the Champions League.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss prior to Champions League matches this season. Lost their last away match prior to Champions League.
  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 6-5-2-3-3-2-5 goals scored v 15th and lower in all wins.

Conclusions

  • Team news vital for PSG. If Cavani and /or Neymar are missing, this will impact upon the team.
  • All things being equal, PSG should be scoring 2-5 goals today in a comfortable away win but the spectre of a Champions League clash must surely subconsciously influence them today.
  • Toulouse have lost to all top 4 so far this season. Their wins tend to be 1-0 wins so you need to weigh up the inplay stats regarding laying Toulouse if Toulouse lead 1-0.

19:00 - Bordeaux v Amiens - 1.57 Bordeaux

  • 1-0 Amiens in the previous head to head.

Bordeaux (8th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Hugely impressive 3-1 win v Lyon at home ended a run of 3 at home without scoring.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Beat 19th and 20th at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Amiens (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only scored a 2nd goal away in 1 match. Conceded 2 goals away on only 3 occasions.

Conclusions

  • Amiens away form is the reason really to side with Bordeaux. Amiens may keep it tight but at their best Bordeaux could score 2 goals at least today.
  • Lay any late draw.