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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, March 10, 2018

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Shortlist at DRT Facebook page as well as the goals before halftime.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Man Utd v Liverpool - 2.74 Man Utd

  • A humdinger in store but not a researchable match.

15:00 - Everton v Brighton - 2.26 Everton

  • 1-1 earlier this season.

Everton (11th)

  • A draw and 2 wins, both teams scoring, in the last 3 at home.
  • 5 of the last 6 recent defeats came away.
  • WWDLDWW (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss) under Allardyce at home. Solid stuff.

Brighton (10th)

  • Chris Hughton must be delighted. Top 10 BUT only 7 points shy of relegation. Things can turn south if Brighton or indeed Everton get a couple of poor results.
  • Both teams scored last 5 matches with Brighton unbeaten 3 wins in 4 came at home.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side away, scoring only once in 7 matches.
  • With the strong under 2.5 goals trend away, defeats tend to be 2-0, draws 0-0 or 1-1.

Conclusions

  • On current form, Everton will fancy themselves here. Brighton tend towards under 2.5 goals so 1-1, 2-0 that kind of scoreline appeals.
  • Brighton layable if scoring first considering they have only scored once in 7 matches away v top 12.
  • Everton under Allardyce at home are in solid form. Brighton no win in 8 away have tended to win at home.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Swansea - 2.56 Huddersfield

  • Look at the odds in the Premier League this weekend. Huddersfield, Newcastle, West Brom matches see favourites at 2.5 or higher so I will not do indepth research into matches where the market cannot split the teams.
  • Swansea and Huddersfield are both only 3 points shy of relegation. This is your proverbial relegation 6 pointer.
  • Huddersfield impressed with 2 recent wins v Bournemouth and West Brom. They play a Swansea renewed under new manager with only 1 loss in 7. Keep that up and they will avoid relegation.Swansea lost their last away match v Brighton and have score drawn their prior 2 away matches. Their winnings are coming at home.
  • Will Huddersfield continue their run of only 1 defeat at home v 7th and lower? Will Swansea continue their revival under new manager (and continue to avoid an away win!!)?

15:00 - Newcastle v Southampton - 2.78 Newcastle

  • The second in a triumvirate of tough-to-call Premier League matches.
  • The reason I guess is because 16th v 17th is another relegation 6 pointer.
  • Newcastle are 2 points shy of the relegation zone. A win takes them as high as 13th!
  • Southampton are one point shy of relegation. Again, a win could take them 13th.
  • 4 draws in 7 plays 5 draws in 7 matches and these draws signal a desire not to lose matches. Every point counts.
  • 1-1-0-1-1-0 conceded by Newcastle at home recently is a good foundation.
  • Saints scored 2 goals on only 3 occasions away. It does hint at advantage Newcastle today if they continue to avoid conceding 2 goals.
  • No suprise to see a 0-0 at halftime here in this potentially under 2.5 goals match.

15:00 - West Brom v Leicester - 2.66 leicester

  • The last of the tough-to-call Premier League matches sees bottom of the league West Brom take on top 10 team Leicester.
  • Why are Leicester's odds so high?

West Brom (20th)

  • Only 1 win in 27 matches. Pardew has made little difference.
  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 1-0-1-2-2-1 goals scored at home recently signals a glimmer of hope.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team at home.
  • It is clear that West Brom are gaining most points at home though.

Leicester (8th)

  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches without winning.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 12th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/10 matches v 6th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today given Leicester's record and West Brom's scoring habit at home.
  • Apart from that, I cannot get any other angles into this one.

15:00 - West Ham v Burnley - 2.34 West Ham

  • The claret and blues meet.

West Ham (14th)

  • 3 consecutive heavy losses ...came away from home.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 at home though.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 8 home and away.
  • 69% of home goals were scored 2nd half.

Burnley (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • 3 of 4 away defeats were 1-0.
  • Not conceded 2 goals away v 8th and lower.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away v 8th and lower.
  • 67% of goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Burnley are tough to score 2 goals against. BUT they find it hard to score 2 goals away.
  • West Ham may struggle to score the 2 goals they usually need for a win. If Burnley continue to be tough to score 2 goals against, lay West Ham if West Ham scores first.

17:30 - Chelsea v C Palace - 1.32 Chelsea

  • 1-2 and 2-1 Palace in the last 2 head to heads.

Chelsea (5th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 8 wins in 9 matches at home v 9th and lower.

Crystal Palace (18th)

  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • 88th and 90th minute concessions costing Palace 4 points last 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 6 defeats, scoring only 1 goal away v top 7.

Conclusions

  • Season-long form sees Palace lose today and struggle to score even one goal.
  • Recent form gives Palace a chance. The only defeat for Chelsea v 9th and lower at home came recently.
  • Palace have conceded 88th and 90th minute losing goals recently. If they can tighten that up against a Chelsea side without an out-and-out striker at time of writing, I could see both teams score and the potential for a positive Palace result.
  • Strong possibility for 0-0 at halftime.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Middlesbrough v Barnsley - 1.62 Boro

  • 2-2 in the last head to head.

Middlesbrough (6th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2-3-3 goals scored at home last 3 matches, all wins.
  • All 5 defeats at home came to nil. Boro lost 4 of their home matches v top 5.
  • 100% wins at home v 18th and lower.

Barnsley (21st)

  • Only 2 wins in 20 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • All defeats away v top 7.
  • Only 1 away win v teams above them in the league.
  • 67% of goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • The market is right here. 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 are the scorelines that form tells us.
  • A simple angle particularly if Barnsley scores first.

15:00 - Cardiff v Birmingham - 1.66 Cardiff

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Birmingham in the last 2 head to heads.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • 7 wins and 2 draws in 9 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • 100% wins v 19th and lower.

Birmingham (22nd)

  • 6 consecutive defeats failing to score in 5 of those matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away.
  • Failed to score in 8 of 12 matches v top 15 away.

Conclusions

  • The form is with the market.
  • Cardiff should win today. Simple angle.

 SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Eibar v Real Madrid - 1.55 Real Madrid

  • 1-4 Real Madrid and 3-0 Real Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.

Eibar (8th)

  • Only 3 losses in 16 matches v 2nd, 1st and 9th.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Have lost to all top 3 this season.Beat 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th at home.
  • 73% of goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • In 8 of their last 9 matches, Real scored 2+ goals.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • 2-1 loss away to 7th, 2-2 away v 9th.

Conclusions

  • 7 points shy of 2nd spot Real Madrid are coming off the back of a comprehensive 2-legged win over Paris St Germain.
  • Earlier this season Real won 3-0 v Eibar.
  • Eibar are in great form and tend to beat 4th-8th at home but have lost v top 3 this season.
  • It should be a tight match but if Real continue their 2 goal pattern, they will take this match.

15:15 - Sevilla v Valencia - 2.16 Sevilla

  • 0-0 and 4-0 Valencia in the last 2 head to heads.

Sevilla (5th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the top 4, a 2-5 loss v 2nd.
  • 64% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Valencia (4th)

  • 4 wins and a draw in 5.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 aways.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime last 11.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • v top 8 away, loss v 2nd, 2-2 v 3rd and 2-1 loss v 8th.
  • 72% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla are yet to beat the top 4 home and away. Will that continue today? They could score today so note that.
  • Valencia are highly likely to score. Other than that the teams are well-matched.

17:30 - Getafe v Levante - 1.75 Getafe

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.

Getafe (11th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 came away.
  • 7 clean sheets in 8 at home.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • Only home losses v top 5.
  • 4 wins out of 4 at home v 16th and lower.
  • 62% of home goals scored 2nd half.

Levante (17th)

  • No win in 15 and in 8 away.
  • Conceded in last 10 and last 6 away.
  • No away win v top 17.

Conclusions

  • Getafe look value for the 1.75 quote. No defeat 10 at home, 7 clean sheets in 8 at home and beating all teams 16th and lower they have met at home.
  • A surprise for me should Levante win this one.

19:45 - Malaga v Barcelona - 1.29 Barcelona

  • 0-0, 1-2, 2-0 Malaga home head to heads. This could be competitive.
  • Bottom v Top here.
  • No indepth research here. I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime. 42.9% for Barcelona away.
  • 2-0 v Barca earlier this season loss for Malaga.
  • At home, 0-1 v 2nd and 5th losses suggests they could be defensively minded yet eventually capitulate.
  • Barcelona have a Champions League match v Chelsea on 14th March so that may add to potential Barca struggles.
  • I must say that Barca have generally been superb as a DRT side, one errant 0-0 apart.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Paris St-G v Metz - 1.11 PSG

  • Top v bottom here and no indepth research really.
  • PSG are expected to score 3/4 goals today and potentially before a goal at least before halftime.
  • Metz scored against 2nd and 3rd away in defeat so a real hope they score first.
  • 1-5 PSG at Metz earlier in the season.

19:00 - Bordeaux v Angers - 1.92 Bordeaux

  • 1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Bordeaux (9th)

  • No win in 3 saw 2 losses away.
  • Win, win, draw last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • WLWLWWW (W=Win; L=Loss) at home v teams below them in the league. 3-3-3-2-2-scored in the wins.
  • 61% of goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 75% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Angers (14th)

  • 2 consecutive wins ends a run of 3 consecutive losses.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side away seeing draws v 3rd, 4th, 8th, 11th.

Conclusions

  • A hint that the best Angers can seek is a score draw. Bordeaux have a chance to score 2/3 goals as they tend to v teams below them in the league at home and that should ensure they do not lose.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:00 - Nantes v ESTAC Troyes - 1.68 Nantes

  • 0-1 Nantes in the last 2 head to heads.

Nantes (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home were 0-1 only.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 1-0 leads at halftime at home; 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home in 7 matches v 11th and lower.

Troyes (18th)

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches were 1-0 wins v Troyes.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 9 consecutive away defeats.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 10 losses and a win away v top 17 teams.
  • 72% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Troyes win, it is likely to be 0-1.
  • Nantes are in poor form at present but v 11th and lower have only 1 loss in 7 so if Troyes score first, I would take a chance and lay them.
  • No surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime. 72% of Troyes conceded goals away though came 2nd half so take that 0-0 on.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Hamburg - 1.14 Bayern

  • Comprehensive home wins in head to heads, Bayern struggle at Hamburg.

Bayern (1st)

  • 11 wins in 12 matches.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.

Hamburg (17th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 12 and in 11 away.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Lost 2-0 or 3-0 away v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Points are required by Hamburg with time and matches running out but they may have to wait. Bayern should win 2-0/3-0 today at the very least. They tend to score 5 goals v Hamburg at Munich.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if this Bayern side can lead 2-0 on 7 occasions by halftime.

14:30 - Hannover v Augsburg - 2.34 Hannover

  • Not a match which greatly appeals on paper.
  • 1-2 Hannover last head to head.

Hannover (11th)

  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches came at home.
  • 1-0-1-2-1-0-0 scored recently. Paid the price last 2 matches with 2 1-0 defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 3 losses at home v 4th, 8th and 15th (2 0-1 losses).

Augsburg (10th)

  • 3 defeats and a draw last 4.
  • No win in 5 away, conceding in their last 7 away.
  • Wins v 4th, 14th and 16th away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams are conceding of late. Will that continue today? A hint that we lay Hannover if Hannover score first based on their poor recent goalscoring record.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg - 1.7 Hoffenheim

  • 2-1 Wolfsburg and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Hoffenheim (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • 15 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wolfsburg (15th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten v top 5 away (4 draws).

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score anyone? It looks obvious.
  • Note Hoff tend to score and concede mostly 2nd half.

17:30 - Leverkusen v Mgladbach - 1.74 Leverkusen

  • 1-5 Leverkusen and 0-1 Leverkusen in the last 2 head to heads.

Leverkusen (5th)

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and in their last 2 at home.
  • Winning away 1-2 though in recent matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side at home but not played 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th.

Mgladbach (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 came last away match, a 0-1 v Hannover.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Losses away v 3rd and 4th, but 2-2 away v 6th and 1-3 away v 7th.

Conclusions

  • Based on stats, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but can we trust Leverkusen? They have failed to score only 3 times this season, twice now in their last 2 home matches.
  • Lay any late draw?
  • I would take a chance on a  2-2 here. incase the Mgladbach v 6th and 7th turns up.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Verona v Chievo - 2.26 Chievo

  • 3-1 Verona and 3-2 Chievo in the last 2 head to heads.

Verona (19th)

  • soccerstats.com cannot be reached at the time of writing.
  • Only 3 home wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 8 home matches.
  • Did beat 7th and 9th at home but 9 defeats at home this season.

Chievo (14th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 away clean sheets.
  • Only 2 away wins v 11th and 15th.

Conclusions

  • An unappealing match researched because it was the only Italian Seria A match.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

18:45 - Willem II v PSV - 1.37 PSV

  • 3 PSV wins and a 0-0 last 4 head to heads.

Willem II (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came last 2 homes.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 12 defeats and a 2-2 v 9th and higher.

PSV (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 9 wins and a draw last 10 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 12 wins and a 3-3 home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • PSV are a clear form pick here. Such contrasting form between both. One tends to lose to top 12, one tends to win v 10th and lower.
  • With only 1 0-0 at halftime at home I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

16:00 - Rio Ave v Feirense - 1.64 Rio Ave

  • 2-1 and 1-0 Feirense in the last 2 head to heads.

Rio Ave (5th)

  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • 58.3% home matches saw 0-0 at halftime.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 at home v 11th and lower.
  • 72% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Feirense (15th)

  • No draw since 21st August 2018.
  • 9 defeats in 10 away.
  • 8 defeats and a win away v 12th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Form lines clear again here. Feirense should lose, Rio should beat 11th and lower.
  • Note the high % 2nd half scoring from Rio Ave so fear not a draw or loss at halftime.

18:15 - Benfica v Aves - 1.15 Benfica

  • 3-4-6-3 goals scored by Benfica last 4 head to heads.

Benfica (2nd)

  • Must win in order to cut the 5 point gap to Porto in 1st.
  • Only 1 loss.
  • 7 wins in 8.
  • 3-5-4-5 scored last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins home v 4th and lower.

Aves (13th)

  • 4 clean sheets in 5.
  • 3 wins and 2 0-0's last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score away v top 5.

Conclusions

  • We should expect 3+ goals from Benfica today and a goal at least before halftime.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Partick v Aberdeen - 1.84 Aberdeen

  • Aberdeen have won the last 7 head to heads.

Partick (11th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 wins then 3 losses at home.
  • 9 defeats and a 2-2 v top 4 this season.

Aberdeen (3rd)

  • 2nd is still there if Aberdeen can put together a winning sequence.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 losses though v Hibs and Celtic.
  • 3-2-2-2 conceded last 4 away matches.
  • 11 wins and a 2-2 draws home and away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Another clear form indicator that the market is right and Aberdeen's odds should be slightly shorter.
  • 3-4 humdinger last time these 2 played at Partick. More today please! Aberdeen have been conceding heavily recently away but do meet lesser opponents today.