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I was very disappointed with my close pals FC Oss. Only 1-2. Where was the goal fest? I hope the penny has not dropped with them that they have to defend now and again? I'll be live chatting for the German Bundesliga onwards at 14:30 and must narrow my focus on a Saturday. The reasons Sundays have been so profitable is the fact we are not distracted by League One, Two, Bundesliga 2,3, and French and Italian Lower leagues. So, a focus on what's been researched! See you here at delayreacttrade.com at 14:30.

12:30 - Arsenal v Hull - 1.3 Arsenal

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside of the top 10 home and away (Hull are 18th).
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Arsenal other stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2/3 goals scored in all bar 1 match at home v 11th and lower.

Hull 100% stats

  • All defeats home and away v top 4 (Arsenal are 4th).
  • No win away v top 15 teams.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Hull other stats

  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • I really don't know what is with your Liverpools, Arsenals and Tottenhams of late. Liverpool lost to Hull last match. Arsenal are on a 2 match losing run.
  • Strictly on form Arsenal will score 2/3 goals today in a win to nil or to 1. Let that be our assumption, depending on which Arsenal turn up.
  • Hull will look to be tough to score against but the fact remains they simply have trouble scoring away from home.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, I will venture into the correct score market although arsenal have let us down twice now in that area.
  • Please remember the up-coming Champions League fixture. Can Hull exploit possible Arsenal distractions?

14:30 - Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.88 Leverkusen

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 3, where Frankfurt are - both teams scored.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches and only kept 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals at home v 2nd and 4th and play 3rd today.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • 4 matches played away v top 11 and 2 defeats and 2 draws.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Frankfurt other stats

  • Only 4 defeats all season but have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches bar those 2 defeats above.

Conclusions

  • Frankfurt are 3rd largely based on home form. They struggle for wins v top 11 teams.
  • With Leverkusen scoring 2 goals in home matches v Dortmund and Leipzig, they must be confident today.
  • I would lay Frankfurt if Frankfurt scored first today.
  • Both teams could score with Leverkusen's poor clean sheets record but solid scoring record.
  • Champions League for Leverkusen on the 17th February should not affect them today.

14:30 - Ingolstadt v Bayern Munich - 1.34 Bayern Munich

  • Bayern have won the last 2 head to heads but both teams have scored.

Ingolstadt 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Ingolstadt other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 4 home matches so some form.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Did beat 2nd in the league 1-0. But 5 other defeats at home to the top 10.

Bayern Munich 100% stats

  • All wins home and away v 13th and lower - Ingolstadt are 17th.
  • 0-1 wins only away v bottom 3 sides.

Bayern Munich other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 matches and last 2 away.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.

Conclusions

  • There is an argument for a Bayern struggle today. The perfect storm of a Champions League match up coming, only 0-1 wins away v bottom 3 sides and an Ingolstadt side with only 1 loss in 4 at home, and having beaten 2nd in the league 1-0!
  • Hmmm. Compelling case to lay Bayern if Bayern lead? Or a timely reminder that Ingolstadt have 5 other defeats at home v top 10 teams.
  • Curse of the Champions League to strike?

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Mgladbach - 2.5 Mgladbach

  • Werder I love you so! (so far!). A team seeing a goal before halftime and both teams scoring - well that's the norm in the German Bundesliga.
  • 5-1 Mgladbach and 4-1 Mgladbach in the last 2 head to heads.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • Scored and conceded in every home match.
  • All home wins were by 1 goal margin.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 8 home scorelines have been 2-1 or 1-2.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • Unbeaten in 3 with 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 6 and conceded 20 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Can we keep relying on the Werder ATM? A goal at least before halftime and both teams scoring. It happened in head to heads where Mgladbach love playing Werder. This season though Mgladbach have scored only 6 away goals. We have to hope that they keep up their end of the bargain.
  • 2-1/1-2 looks a natural selection for correct score given its appearance so often in a Werder home match.
  • Of course, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in lieu of a goal!

14:30 - Darmstadt v Dortmund - 1.41 Dortmund

  • Dortmund have a Champions League match against Benfica on 14th February so take note.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • All points have been earned at home.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal in a match v top 7 sides.

Darmstadt other stats

  • 10 losses and a 0-0 in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Beat 3rd 1-0 and drew with 5th 1-1 at home - playing 4th today.
  • Not conceded in the first half hour of a home match.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower. Darmstadt are bottom.
  • Scored and conceded in all away matches v 13th and lower.

Dortmund other stats

  • Only 3 defeats all came away.
  • Had a run of both teams scoring in 7 matches, which ended last match.
  • Conceded in their last 10 aways.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 aways.

Conclusions

  • Curse of the Champions League? Dortmund keep scoring and conceding away, and meet a team who, if they get a point, get it at home exclusively.
  • Dortmund though are unbeaten v 10th and lower and Darmstadt have not scored more than 1 goal in a match v top 7 sides.
  • So take a chance on Dortmund here if Darmstadt score first. Darmstadt do tend to concede 2nd half so note that if they have kept a halftime clean sheet.

14:30 - Leipzig v Hamburg - 1.5 Leipzig

Leipzig 100% stats

  • The only team really to threaten Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga this season.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
  • Scored a maximum of 3 goals at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • No 0-0.

Leipzig other stats

  • 3 defeats all came in the last 3 away matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Not yet played bottom 3 (where Hamburg reside) but won 3-1 v 4th bottom at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Hamburg 100% stats

  • No win home or away v the top 9.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Hamburg other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • In 7 of 9 matches v top 9 teams, Hamburg conceded 2 goals at least.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig should be outscoring Hamburg today. Hamburg are vulnerable if scoring first as Leipzig are yet to concede 2 goals at home.
  • Leipzig have the capabilities for scoring 3 goals today.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Leipzig are to concede it is more likely to come 1st half.
  • 3-0, 3-1 possible scorelines if 0-0 after 20 minutes.

15:00 - Dundee v Kilmarnock - 2.2 Dundee

  • 2 1-1 draws ended with a 2-0 Kilmarnock win in the last 3 head to heads in the Scottish Premier league.

Dundee other stats

  • The last 5 defeats all came away from home.
  • 2-2-0-3-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 of 4 home defeats came v top 3 teams.
  • Not beaten Kilmarnock this season.

Kilmarnock 100% stats

  • Not scored in both halves away.

Kilmarnock other stats

  • Only 2 away wins.
  • v bottom 4 teams where Dundee reside, Killy have had 7 draws and 2 wins.
  • Away from home, we see 3 1-1 draws and a 1-2 v bottom 3 sides.
  • Failed to score more than 1 goal in their last 11 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Dundee have their scoring boots on in recent home matches but have yet to beat Kilmarnock this season in 2 attempts.
  • Despite no win in 7 away, Killy are unbeaten home and away v the bottom 3 teams. 1-1, 1-2 are possibles although I have only researched this as the sole representative of the Scottish Premier League today.
  • It is not a match featuring 2 of the most trustworthy teams in the world!
  • Lay Kilmarnock if Kilmarnock score first. They cannot find that 2nd goal at the moment in away matches.

15:00 - Sunderland v Southampton - 2.14 Southampton

Sunderland other stats

  • Only 5 wins and won the last match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets and 2 in a row now.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home was v Spurs.
  • Only 1 win home and away v 13th and higher (Saints are 13th).
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Southampton 100% stats

  • Lost away to all bottom 4 played so far.

Southampton other stats

  • 6 defeats in 7 matches.
  • 0-0-3-0-0-1 goals scored in recent away matches.
  • Only 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Southampton are in poor form and have lost all away matches v bottom 4 sides.
  • I don't think I can trust this Southampton side at the moment. Sunderland themselves are bottom for a reason.
  • I would back 0-0 pre match as Sunderland can deliver a 0-0 at halftime and Southampton have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 away matches.

15:00 - Stoke v Crystal Palace - 2.16 Stoke

  • It is so tight at the bottom of the Premiership that 3 points for Palace could have a huge impact on their position.

Stoke 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v bottom 5 at home scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • All wins at home were by 2 clear goals.

Stoke other stats

  • 4 draws in their last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.

Palace 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Stoke 4-1 earlier this season - the only win home and away v top 12 sides - an anomoly?

Palace other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 7 defeats in the last 9 matches but 0-2 win v Bournemouth last away.
  • 16 of 19 away goals scored 2nd half. 16 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The influence of Big Sam was prevalent in the 0-2 win v Bournemouth last away match. Has his philosophy embedded?
  • On form Stoke could score 2 goals at least today. They find the bottom 5 eminently easier.
  • Do note the strong 2nd half bias Palace show scoring or conceding. If 0-0 at halftime I would expect 2nd half goals.

 15:00 - Man Utd v Watford - 1.26 Man Utd

  • It seems after any draw sequence Man Utd go on a run of matches scoring 2 goals at least. That's what happened last match.
  • Man Utd have a home tie v St Etienne in the Europa League on the 17th February 2017.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 4 (Watford are 10th).
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Man Utd other stats

  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • No defeat in 10 matches at home and 15 overall.
  • Really poor win record v top 12 teams - 5 draws, a loss and a win.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Watford 100% stats

  • No draw home or away v top 12 teams.

Watford other stats

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins, one v Arsenal.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of 10 matches home and away v teams above them in the league.
  • Conceded most away goals at either side of halftime.

Conclusions

  • Watford beat United earlier this season. United have a really poor win record against the top 12 and that seems to be dismissed by the market.
  • Watford tend to score and concede v top teams so note that today, particularly a late 1-0 United win.
  • No draw at home or away v top 12 for Watford so lay any late draw. We might see a 1-1.
  • If United are to win, you feel 1-0 or 2-1 are the likeliest scorelines. It could be tougher than 1.26 odds suggests!

15:00 - West Ham v West Brom - 2.28 West Ham

  • 4-2 to West Brom the last time these 2 sides met.

West Ham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 10 team - West Brom are 8th.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

West Ham other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 12 home goals scored 2nd half.

West Brom 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

West Brom other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets only.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • 50% 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • So West Ham have yet to beat a top 10 team and West Brom tend to exclusively lose to top 7 teams.
  • So strictly on form, West Brom should not lose. They have conceded in their last 11 aways so both teams could score.
  • If the form continues, we should lay West Ham if West ham score first.
  • Do not expect a 0-0 - there is a chance of 0-0 at halftime but I doubt full-time.

15:00 - Middlesbrough v Everton - 2.2 Everton

  • 3-1 to Everton the last time these 2 met.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Middlesbrough other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side.
  • Not scored 2 goals against a top 13 side.

Everton 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Everton other stats

  • 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Lost away to 10th, 12th, 13th and 14th and play 15th today.

Conclusions

  • It seems clear cut. Boro have not beaten a top 13 side nor have they been able to score more than 1 goal against a top 13 side.
  • This tells us to lay Boro if Boro score first (and hope Everton don't falter away as they have against 10th - 14th).
  • Everton are strong 2nd half goalscorers and don't do 0-0's so fear not if 0-0 at halftime. There should be a goal or two.

15:15 - Alaves v Barcelona - 1.35 Barcelona

  • 1-0 and 2 draws in the last 3 matches prior to a Champions League round for Barcelona and this could be a toughie against an Alaves who, as you'll see, are in good form.
  • Remember that Alaves beat Barcelona at the Nou Camp earlier this season.

Alaves 100% stats

  • No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Alaves other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches was a 1-0 v Celta.
  • Recently kept Atl Madrid to 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost 1-4 at home to Real Madrid.
  • 6 goals conceded in the last 15 mins of home matches.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Scored in all away matches.

Barcelona other stats

  • 3 1-1 draws in their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 consecutive away matches with a 90th minute Barcelona goal.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 20 of 29 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Note the poor record Barcelona have had recently in the league matches prior to a Champions League match. I might even back 0-0 pre match and hope Alaves are the stubborn bar stewards they were against Atl Madrid who admittedly absolutely pummelled them.
  • Barcelona tend to score. If you followed the Betis v Barca match, then you'd have profited from that belief. Barca also play 90 minute football. They have had 4 consecutive matches with a 90th minute goal so factor that in.
  • I would not be a Barca backer today but then I may not be a Barca layer (unless it is 0-1 late on - Alaves scored and conceded v top 3 this season).

17:30 - Liverpool v Tottenham - 2.3 Liverpool

  • The last 3 Premiership matches have been draws, the last 2 were score draws.

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v the top 11 teams.
  • Unable to score a 2nd goal in a match v top 6 teams at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Liverpool other stats

  • No win in 5 matches saw 3 draws.
  • Scored in their last 8 home matches.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • A Europa League match on the 16th February.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away from home. 4 score draws in 6 matches.

Tottenham other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.

Conclusions

  • This match looks to be sailing rather inevitably towards a 1-1 draw. Both sides are poor v top sides.
  • Tottenham have the greater confidence I would suggest at the moment. As ever with these big clashes it is tough to be confident that the match will go as per the form.

17:30 - Ath Bilbao v Deportivo - 1.72 Ath Bilbao

  • Ath Bilbao has a Europa League match on the 16th February.
  • 2 consecutive Bilbao wins in head to heads, the last was 0-1 in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Not lost at home outside of the top 2.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 3-2-0-2-2 goals scored in recent home matches, including against usually defensively solid Atl Madrid.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 6 of 7 home wins saw both teams score.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Opponents have equalised away on all occasions they have needed to.

Deportivo other stats

  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • All wins bar a 1-1 away v top 10 teams.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With such a strong scoring and conceding trend for both sides, this should continue and I'd personally want Depor to score first as I think I'd have more confidence in Bilbao equalising.
  • Bilbao are solid at home and really should win today in which case they would have to score 2 goals at least. We see Bilbao scoring 2/3 goals in recent home matches so there's a good precedent there!

19:00 - Monaco v Metz - 1.27 Monaco

  • 0-7 to Monaco in French Ligue 1 the last time these 2 met.

Monaco 100% stats

  • Still top of the league.
  • Play in the Champions League on 21st February.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower - Metz are 12th.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Monaco other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • Scored in their last 18 matches.
  • Scored 3+ goals in 8 home matches.
  • 28 of 41 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Metz 100% stats

  • 10-0 total scored/conceded v top 2.
  • Failed to score in the 4 matches played away v top 8.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Metz other stats

  • 4-2-3-0-2 conceded in recent away matches.
  • Failed to score in 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Monaco should not be distracted by the Champions League just yet.
  • A team scoring 41 home goals plays a team failing to score in 8 matches.
  • Monaco should simply outscore Metz.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Monaco's amazing goal scoring.
  • Speculate correct score 6-0 just for fun. Monaco scored 6 v teams either side of Metz in the league.

19:45 - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.24 real Madrid

  • Osasuna showed against Real Sociedad last weekend that a focus on strugglers can produce a solid return (particularly if you have covered the possibility of them scoring an errant 2 goals!).

Osasuna 100% stats

  • No home win.
  • Lost home and away v top 6 teams.
  • Conceded 2-4 goals at home v teams 8th and higher.

Osasuna other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 3-3-3-4-1 goals conceded at home recently.
  • Conceded last 17 matches.
  • Concede heavily in the 15 minutes at the end of each half at home.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in all matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Scored 2-6 goals in all matches home and away v teams 8th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Lost only 1 match and that was their last away match.

Conclusions

  • Osasuna should not be winning here can could concede 2-6 goals today at their worst.
  • We should expect 2 goals at least if Real Madrid are faltering today (they have an upcoming Champions League match).
  • Real Madrid have scored in all matches so any late 0-0 should be opposed.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Udinese - 1.71 Fiorentina

  • At least one team has scored 2 goals at least in each of the last 8 head to heads in Italian Seria A.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • All wins at home were by a single goal margin.
  • No home matches with exactly 4 goals.
  • Have been able to equalise whenever needed at home.

Fiorentina other stats

  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • 2-2-3-2-3 goals scored in their last 5 home matches. 2 3-3 draws there too.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Udinese 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Udinese other stats

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only led once at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Lay Udinese if Udinese score first.
  • Advantage Fiorentina on very recent form. Fiorentina have been scoring 2 goals of late to Udinese's inability to score in 3 of their last 4.
  • Note Fiorentina are yet to win by 2 clear goals so if scoring 2 goals and going for the win, both teams could score.
  • Fiorentina concede strongly in the 2nd half so note that. They are the likelier leaders at halftime.