Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Forgoing the Watford v Liverpool match at 12:30, I think a Twitter chat at 15:00 would be the best time to begin @drtclub. It was a great chat aside from the elite leagues last night. Backing 3-0 Dynamo Kiev when 0-0 at halftime returned about 6/1 and let's not forget the 1.06 lay of Liefering as Hartberg fought back from 0-2 to draw 2-2. Over in Germany I put up a fun treble while Holsten Kiel were losing, Mgladbach were losing and Leverkusen drawing. Well Holsten and Mgladbach both won and Leverkusen scored 3.....in extra fecking time! In-play stats seem to be in fine working order so I am optimistic that we can get some good trades today. How do you back a 1.06 shot at 3.3 odds and bigger? You wait for them to go 0-2 down! As happened with Flora Tallin. These are the matches where you win big IF you maintain faith in the 1.06 shot winning (despite drawing 2-2 in the 90th minute). They scored their winner in the 91st minute.
See you at around 15:00 @drtclub and as ever if I see any good trades earlier than that, I will let you know.

12:30 - Watford v Liverpool - 1.6 Liverpool

  • 0-1 the last time Liverpool visited Watford.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Watford home matches against top-six teams and in 8/11 Liverpool away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Liverpool have scored first in 9/12 away matches.
  • Coutinho remains at Liverpool.Salah comes to Liverpool from Roma.
  • Poor Liverpool performances last season v bottom half sides yet unstoppable against top 10. Can this be solved?
  • New manager for Watford. Strong home form last season with 8 wins suggests a tough opener for Liverpool.

15:00 - Chelsea v Burnley - 1.25 Chelsea

  • 3-0 Chelsea and 1-1 the last 2 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Chelsea have won 15/16 home matches while Burnley have lost 5/5 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Chelsea have won by two or more goals in 8/11 home matches.
  • Costa replaced by Morata for Chelsea so a question mark there already. Morata an unknown in the Premiership.
  • 12 halftime/fulltime wins for Chelsea at home last season.
  • Burnley were superb at home last season where they scored first consistently. Only 13 away goals all season though.
  • Interestingly Burnley were drawing at halftime in 23 of 38 matches last season so a draw at halftime would not surprise.
  • Chelsea without Costa. How will they fare? Will Burnley be their usual resiliant selves, at least until the second half?

15:00 - Everton v Stoke City - 1.72 Everton

  • 1-0 Everton and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Everton have won 9/10 home matches while Stoke have lost 8/12 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Everton have won by two or more goals in 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Only 2 defeats at home last season for Everton.
  • Everton won the second half in 17 matches last season.
  • 10 of Everton's 13 home wins last season were by more than 1 goal.
  • Ramirez and Rooney for Lukaku. Hmmm. I'm not so sure Everton have found a like-for-like replacement in terms of Lukaku's goals.
  • Stoke are typically tough to beat. 23 Stoke matches last season were under 2.5 goals.

15:00 - Southampton v Swansea - 1.64 Southampton

  • Southampton won 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Southampton have won 10/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Swansea have lost 13/18 away matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 12/15 Swansea away matches against top-half teams.
  • 14 clean sheets last year for Saints. Only 41 goals though last season for Saints is a worry. No Le Tiss to fall back on.
  • New manager for Saints comes from Alaves.
  • Swansea ended excellently under Clement last half of last season. Second worst defence in the league last season.
  • Swansea drew only 5 matches last season.

15:00 - West Brom v Bournemouth - 2.48 West Brom

  • 2-1 West Brom the last time Bournemouth visited. AFC Bournemouth are top of the league (with no games played and in alphabetical order!).
  • 1st goal: WBA have scored first in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Bournemouth have lost 11/20 away matches.
  • WBA have won 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Solid defensively and a threat on set pieces, welcome to the world of Tony Pulis. Their top scorer had only 8 goals though.
  • Only 10 clean sheets for Bournemouth last season. Josh King could be the Bournemouth saviour. 12 goals in 14 games last season.
  • Jermain Defoe and his free bus pass arrives at Bournemouth. He managed 15 goals for Dunderland last season.
  • Interesting to watch Bournemouth this term with King in attack from the start and Defoe an established scorer.

15:00 - C Palace v Huddersfield - 1.85 Palace

  • 1st goal: C Palace have conceded first in 14/20 home matches.
  • Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 51% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Frank De Boer is the new Palace manager after Big Sam came in to do the job of saving their season.
  • A quite superb end to the season for Palace with six wins in 8 games. How much of that was the manager's doing we are going to find out.
  • Palace were relatively poor at home last season. They shone away from home.
  • 1.67 shots to go down - that's Huddersfield!

17:30 - Brighton v Manchester City - 1.34 Man City

  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Man City have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Man City have won 7/11 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Won 12, drawn 2, lost 5 was City's away record last season. Highest scorers away in the Premier League last season.
  • 9 of City's 12 away wins were by more than 1 goal.
  • Brighton should be on the end of a 2+ goal defeat unless....

FRENCH LIGUE 1

Still early in the life of the league. Tough to read at this early stage. I have gathered as much info as I can and hope it helps. This is a league I have had trouble trading in. It has been a tough league to read, largely because I do not know the teams very well (outside of the obvious - Paris St Germain; Lyon; Monaco; Nice). There are other teams like St Etienne who I follow because of their strong 2nd half goal scoring trend.

16:00 - Nantes v Marseille - 2.22 Marseille

  • 2 1-1 draws ended with a 3-2 Nantes win in the last head to head.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Nantes home matches against top-six teams while Marseille have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Nantes have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 3-0 loss for Nantes first match and 3-0 win for Marseille first match.
  • Little to work with bar head to heads suggesting both teams may score and on form, I would have to lay Nantes if Nantes lead.

19:00 - Amiens v Angers - 2.68 Angers

  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 57% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Angers away matches against promoted teams.
  • Angers have had L/L double results in 3/5 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Amiens are newly promoted and had a tough opener v PSG losing 2-0.
  • Angers drew 2-2 with Bordeaux, scoring the first and last goals in that match.

19:00 - Bordeaux v Metz - 1.5 Bordeaux

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 wins for Bordeaux in head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Bordeaux have scored first in 8/10 home matches while Metz have lost 9/12 away matches.
  • Metz have conceded first in 9/12 away matches.
  • Bordeaux as we know drew 2-2 with Angers in their opener. Metz lost 1-3 at home to Guingamp.
  • The market expects Bordeaux to dominate as they have in recent head to heads

19:00 - Caen v St Etienne - 2.68 St Etienne

  • The home side has actually lost the last 3 head to heads, twice St Etienne.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Saint-Etienne away matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 such matches.
  • SM Caen have lost 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.
  • Caen lost their opener 1-0 to Montpellier. St Etienne beat Nice 1-0. Eye catching defensive display against one of the form sides of last year.
  • Will the away side continue to have the better of it?

19:00 - Toulouse v Montpellier - 2.3 Toulouse

  • 2 1-0 Toulouse wins in head to heads last year.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Toulouse home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches.
  • Montpellier have lost 10/12 away matches.
  • Toulouse led twice away at Monaco but eventually lost 3-2. The Monaco forwards were too classy. Still it was an excellent performance from Toulouse.
  • Montpellier beat Caen 1-0 in their opener.

THE ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Please note that the English Championship will not be researched weekly once Italian Seria A, German Bundesliga and Spanish Primera Liga are up and running. The English Championship is simply far too competitive to be a good trading medium. That's not to say I don't use in-play stats for this league and focus on certain teams (last season for instance the dominance of Newcastle ensured their matches were all followed). A handful of teams I am sure will show themselves worthy of monitoring as this season unfolds.

15:00 - Leeds v Preston - 2.08 Leeds

  • 1-4 and 3-0 Leeds in the last 2 head to heads. If they remember they scored 7 and conceded just one, they should have this match wrapped up? The market does not agree though and sees a tighter encounter.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Preston away matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 6/11 Preston such matches.
  • Leeds have scored first in 15/20 home matches.
  • Leeds beat Bolton 2-3 in their opener (there's those goals again!) while Preston beat Sheff Wed 1-0 at home with a late 79th minute goal.

15:00 - Sheff Wed v QPR - 1.82 Sheff Wed

  • 2 consecutive Sheff Wed wins in head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Sheffield Wed have won 10/15 home matches while QPR have lost 7/10 away matches.
  • QPR have conceded first in 12/17 away matches.
  • Sheff Wed lost their opener to Preston 1-0 and QPR beat Reading 2-0.

15:00 - Reading v Fulham - 2.1 Fulham

  • Reading is unbeaten in 3 head to heads, winning the last 2 home head to heads 1-0.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Fulham away matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Fulham such matches.
  • Reading have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Reading lost 2-0 to QPR in their opener and Fulham could only manage a 1-1 at home v Norwich.
  • Fulham finished 6th last season -so close to getting a shot at the Premiership. They were particularly strong over 2.5 goals, albeit more at home.
  • Reading lost only 2 matches at home last season and finished 3rd but yet they remain in the Championship.
  • These were 2 form sides last year.
  • 12 home wins for Reading by a single goal margin.Reading only lost 3 matches at halftime at home all last season.
  • A tough match to predict given these are 2 top 6 sides. Strong Reading home form from last year though must be acknowledged.

15:00 - Barnsley v Ipswich - 2.52 Barnsley

  • 4-2 Ipswich and 1-1 in the last 2 most recent head to heads. Historically these 2 have a strong both teams to score pattern.
  • 1st half outcome: Barnsley have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against bottom-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 Ipswich away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Ipswich have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches.
  • Barnsley lost their opener 3-1 v Bristol City. Ipswich beat Birmingham 1-0.
  • Mid table for Barnsley last season. Outside of the top 6, they lost only 2 matches at home.
  • But v 10th and lower, at home, only 3 wins, 2 of which came v bottom 3. So a lot of draws at home.
  • Only 5 away wins for Ipswich last season. Only 2 away wins v 14th and lower.
  • 2 mid-table mediocrity sides last season.

15:00 - Derby v Wolves - 2.4 Derby

  • Entertaining head to heads. 4-2 Derby, 2-1 Wolves, 2-3 Derby, 3-1 Derby in recent head to heads.
  • 1st half outcome: Derby have drawn the first half in 12/20 home matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Wolves away matches.
  • Only 4 home defeats for Derby last season.
  • Wolves form last season away was inconsistent.
  • Derby drew 1-1 with Sunderland in their opener.
  • Wolves beat Middlesbrough 1-0. Remember Wolves has a new manager so we could see some tactical change manifest this season.

15:00 - Hull v Burton - 1.68 Hull

  • No head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Burton away matches and they have drawn the first half in 9/14 away matches.
  • Relegated teams have scored first in 60% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Hull drew 1-1 away to Villa in their opener. Burton lost 0-1 at home to Cardiff.
  • Hull were Premiership relegated last season. Burton were 5th bottom last season in the Championship.
  • Burton won only 1 match away v top 17 last season so expect troubles v a side fresh from the Premiership.

15:00 - Brentford v Nottm Forest - 1.88 Brentford

  • 4 consecutive Brentford wins in head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Brentford have scored first in 8/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Nottm Forest have lost 10/11 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Nottm Forest have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-half teams.
  • 7 defeats at home last season for Brentford.
  • Forest finished 4th bottom last season and away, won only 2 matches.
  • Brentford lost away to Sheff Utd in their opener. Forest beat Millwall 1-0 in their opener.
  • Brian Clough would be saying' improve your away form, Young Man' to Forest otherwise they are easily opposable today.

15:00 - Birmingham v Bristol City - 2.58 Birmingham

  • 0-0, 1-0 Brum, 0-1 Brum in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Bristol City have lost 10/15 away matches and they have conceded first in 13/18 away matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/20 Birmingham home matches.
  • Birmingham lost 1-0 away to Ipswich on their opener.
  • Bristol City beat Barnsley 3-1 in their opener.
  • Unreadable home form for Birmingham, winning and losing in turn v teams in all sections of the league last season.
  • Bristol City won only 4 away matches last season.
  • These 2 were bottom 8 last season.

15:00 - Millwall v Bolton - 2.08 Millwall

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 51% of matches between two promoted teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 52% of matches between two promoted teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of away matches against promoted teams since 2012-13.
  • They know each other from League One but we may see personnel changes as the level of football gets better. 2 teams definitely worth following this Championship season, more to assume struggles than anything else.

17:30 - Middlesbrough v Sheff Utd - 1.93 Boro

  • 1st goal: Relegated teams have scored first in 60% of home matches against promoted teams since 2012-13 while promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of away matches against relegated teams since 2012-13.
  • Relegated teams have won 52% of home matches against promoted teams since 2012-13.
  • The likes of Negredo could not be tempted to stay at Boro and enjoy the delights of the Championship.
  • Boro lost 1-0 away at Wolves in their opener and Sheff Utd beat Brentford 1-0.
  • Tough to call as there are changes at Boro. What I will say is there is some quality in that Boro defence.

THE SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Ross Co v Aberdeen - 1.76 Aberdeen

  • 0-1 and 1-0 Aberdeen the last 2 head to heads is hardly in keeping with....
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Ross County home matches and in 13/15 Aberdeen away matches against top-half teams.
  • Aberdeen have won 8/10 away matches.
  • Comfortable enough wins for both sides in their openers.

15:00 - Hamilton v Dundee - 2.42 Hamilton

  • 0-2 and 4-0 Hamilton in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Hamilton Ac have scored first in 12/19 home matches while Dundee have lost 12/17 away matches.
  • Dundee have conceded first in 12/17 away matches.
  • Both sides were on the end of losses in their openers against the 2 teams mentioned above.
  • ON head to head form, Diddy David Hamilton must get the vote, wouldn't you agree?

15:00 - Rangers v Hibernian - 1.79 Rangers

  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads. Last 2 head to heads were 3-2 to Hibs, one was a cup match.
  • 1st goal: Rangers have scored first in 10/14 home matches while promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of away matches against top half non-Big One teams since 2012-13.
  • Rangers have won 9/14 home matches.
  • Rangers for me are still bedding in after their demotion a few seasons back. They are yet to earn their place back with Celtic.
  • Rangers won their opener, and Hibs came from behind to win their opener.
  • The head to heads expect an entertaining affair. 2-2 a trading option?

15:00 - St Johnstone v Motherwell - 1.84 St Johnstone

  • St Johnstone has won 2-1 in 4 of the last 5 head to heads. The other was a 1-1.
  • Match outcome: Motherwell have lost 16/20 away matches against top half non-Big One teams and they have conceded first in 12/15 such matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 8/15 St Johnstone home matches.
  • Well, St J beat Kilmarnock 2-1 in their opener and Motherwell lost 2-1 in their opener.
  • Hmmmm, 2-1 anyone or is that far too easy?

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Hearts - 2.3 Hearts

  • Killy has failed to score in the last 3 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Kilmarnock have scored first in 7/13 home matches while Hearts have lost 10/12 away matches.
  • Hearts have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.
  • Both sides scored in defeat in their openers.
  • On head to heads, you would favour Hearts unless Killy can actually score a goal against them!

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

17:00 - Molde v Rosenborg - 2.4 Rosenborg

  • Rosenborg has won the last 3 head to heads but keep conceding.
  • This is 3rd v 1st.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Molde home matches against top-six teams and +2.5 goals in 8/11 Molde home matches.
  • Rosenborg have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Molde

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 3-3-3-0 scored in their last 4 at home.
  • Not played the top 6 at home.
  • Did lose to the top 4 away.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Rosenborg

  • 2 losses only.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3-3-5-3-4 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Only 1 away loss v 5th was a 1-0.
  • 5 of 6 away goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strong 2nd half stats need to be remembered if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Strong recent scoring stats both sides but note Molde are yet to meet the top 6 at home so their recent tally of 3-3-3-0 at home needs a context.
  • I do feel that Rosenborg's goalscoring for fun will simply be too much for Molde today. I would be opposing any Molde lead.