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It's a busy old day today with Italian Seria A switched to Saturday I guess because of Easter. So see you at 14:00 today instead of 14:30 in order to capture some of these Italian matches.
Did you keep the faith in Sheff Wed scoring? It came 84th minute last night. Fulham continued their excellent scoring record away but alas Norwich did not score first for the trading angle. Lay any late draw I said in the Huddersfield match. You cannot get later than the 96th minute for the goal to end the draw! Hope you profited. It was a Desmond. 'Strong second half scoring' for Heracles v AZ. Hope you played considering it was 0-0 at halftime. 1-2 it ended. PSG scored the 2 goals predicted. So a pleasing bit of Friday research.
I am not researching all matches fully now. It's that time of the season. Relegation six pointers; some teams have the beach towels out so questionable motivation with nothing to play for; so basic research with strong patterns noted.

11:30 - Inter v AC Milan - 2.2 Inter

  • 3-0 Milan and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is a Milan Derby. This is 7th v 6th and this is far too tight for me to predict. Go with the in-play stats!

12:30 - Tottenham v Bournemouth - 1.28 Tottenham

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 2nd v 15th in the Premiership. A potential 4 point gap with a win for Tottenham.
  • Bournemouth have a 7 point gap to the relegation zone.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • All home wins v 12th and lower.
  • All home clean sheets v 16th and lower.

Tottenham other stats

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in those wins.
  • 11 consecutive home wins.

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 12 side away.

Bournemouth other stats

  • 2-0-0-2-3 goals conceded in recent matches. Lurching from one extreme to the next. 2 and 3 were v Liverpool and Chelsea.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in 22 matches.
  • 2 goals at least conceded away in all bar 1 match v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

  • On form, Tottenham should be scoring at least 2 goals today and winning.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Oppose any Bournemouth lead.

14:00 - Roma v Atalanta - 1.53 Roma

  • Atalanta are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads. Intriguing!
  • This is 2nd v 5th in Italian Seria A. Can Roma exploit potential Juventus Champions League distractions today?

Roma 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • All wins at home v 6th and lower.

Roma other stats

  • A recent run of 3 wins, a loss, 4 wins, a loss, 4 wins , a loss, 4 wins .....a loss?
  • Sailed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 10 matches.
  • 60% over 3.5 goals at home.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 2 defeats in 15 matches.
  • Recently beat Napoli 0-2 away.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 10.
  • 18 of 28 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta clearly like playing Roma but this season have just the single win away v top 10 which came v Napoli and quite recently.
  • Roma have failed to score only 3 times so I would expect a goal from them today if in trouble or 0-0 for a while.
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Empoli - 1.32 Fiorentina

  • 0-4 Fiorentina the last time these teams met.
  • This is 8th v 17th in Italian Seria A.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in all matches v teams below them in the league at home.

Fiorentina other stats

  • 2 consecutive home wins were 1-0.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.
  • 7 of the home wins were by a single goal only.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Empoli 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away.

Empoli other stats

  • Failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
  • Only scored 1 goal in 13 matches away v top 16 sides.

Conclusions

  • If Empoli cannot score they will not win. That should be enough for Fiorentina who have scored in their last 11 matches.
  • So if 0-0 at halfitme, remember that it might not be a surprise but 0-0 fulltime might be.

14:00 - Pescara v Juventus - 1.33 Juventus

  • 3-0 Juve earlier this season.
  • This is 20th v 1st in Italian Seria A.
  • Not a match to research thoroughly as Pescara are down. I'll just note the strong stats.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1's for Pescara.
  • 2-2 and 2-6 v 3rd and 4th at home. Fun and games today?
  • Juve have failed to score only once this season.
  • 2 1-1 draws in their last 3 aways.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals away for Juve.
  • On form, Juventus should be scoring 2 goals at least today. Watch out if Pescara start going goal crazy as they did v 3rd and 4th at home. Juve are backable all the way. Must win for them. Relegation guaranteed for Pescara.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Ingolstadt - 2.04 Wolfsburg

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 14th v 17th in the German Bundesliga. Another relegation six pointer so only basic research.

Wolfsburg  stats

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches, 2-1 and 1-0, 1-0.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • Only 4 home wins were 2-1 and 3 1-0's.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Ingolstadt stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive wins scoring and conceding in each.
  • No draw in 13 away.
  • All wins bar 2 have come v teams 12th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • For me it is a relegation six pointer but were I to choose, I would side with the Ingolstadt momentum. Both teams may score with Ingolstadt scoring just that one more.
  • Note both teams avoid draws so take a chance and lay any late draw.

14:30 - Dortmund v Frankfurt - 1.41 Dortmund

  • 2 consecutive Frankfurt wins in head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 9th in the German Bundesliga.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals v a top 11 side at home.

Dortmund other stats

  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 13 at home.
  • Scored in their last 19 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • 8 1-0 wins at halftime at home.
  • 11 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 7 sides.
  • Failed to score away v teams above them in the league.

Frankfurt other stats

  • No win in 9 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.

Conclusions

  • Frankfurt have trouble even scoring away v top 7 teams. If Dortmund score, they should win and they have scored in 19 consecutive matches.
  • Dortmund 1-0 at halftime has a chance too.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Mgladbach - 2.02 Hoffenheim

  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 head to heads. 1-1 last time out.
  • This is 3rd v 8th in the German Bundesliga. Hoff are 7 points from 2nd spot currently.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • 6 matches remain. All wins if Hoff are in with a chance of 2nd spot.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored in all home matches v top 13.
  • Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • Only 3 defeats were all 2-1.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 4 team.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • Only 3 defeats in 12 matches - 2 of the defeats were v top 2.

Conclusions

  • Mgladbach are in great form but their losses to the top 2 may suggest they are vulnerable v 3rd today whilst putting in a potentially good performance.
  • Expect Hoffenheim to score.
  • Again 2-1/1-2 has worked the last 2 matches as a trading vehicle. With Hoff losing 2-1 when they lose and Mgladbach in good form, let's hope this is competitive.

15:00 - Watford v Swansea - 2.54 Watford

  • The market cannot split these 2 sides.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 18th in the Premiership. A win for either side could change the season. 40 points with a win for Watford. A win could take the Swans out of relegation (other results pending).
  • Given we have what I call a 'desperate' team in the Swans who need these points, I will only do basic research. it's a relegation six pointer for them.
  • First thing to notice - only 4 draws all season for the Swans.
  • Only 4 clean sheets too.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home for Watford.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats for Swansea who have conceded in their last 15 away.
  • Watford are unbeaten at home v 14th and lower.
  • 22 goals conceded 2nd half away for Swansea.
  • With only 3 away wins, logic suggests the most probable winner (if there is to be one) is Watford who are unbeaten at home v 14th and lower. AS I said at the start, the market cannot split these sides and Swansea's need is such that they are likely to be aiming for a 0-0 and a late winner.

15:00 - C Palace v Leicester - 1.9 Palace

  • 3 consecutive Leicester wins in head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 11th in the Premiership. Palace are 6 points shy of relegation.

C Palace 100% stats

  • 15 matches since Big Sam took over so I will look at those only. But for 100% stats it will be season long.
  • No 0-0.

C Palace other stats

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • No draw I believe under Sam Allardyce.
  • 3 consecutive home wins, all clean sheets.

Leicester City 100% stats

  • Again focus on matches only under the Great Bard (GB), Mr. Shakespeare.
  • 3-3-3-2-2-2 scored in all matches under GB.
  • Scored and conceded 2 goals at least in 2 away matches.

Conclusions

  • A match where 2 managers are stamping their style on their sides.
  • Please note Leicester have a home match v Atl Madrid in the Champions League and only trail 1-0 from the first leg. They are bang in this tie. That may be the distraction which helps Palace today.
  • Both teams are in excellent form under their prospective new managers. Palace keep clean sheets in home wins but Leicester keep scoring 2. I would leave this match myself as it may be clouded by Leicester's Champions League match.
  • I would lay any late draw as Big Sam's tactics tend to ensure draws are avoided by Palace.
  • If you think Leicester's pattern away (2 goals score and 2 goals conceded) continues, 2-2 is a natural starting point.

15:00 - Stoke v Hull - 2 Stoke

  • 0-2 Stoke the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 13th v 17th in the English Premiership.
  • Hull are 2 points from relegation so this is one of 'those' relegation six pointers already. Stoke could conceivably hit top 10 with a win, that's how tight it is in the bottom half of the premiership.

Stoke 100% Stats

  • All wins at home v 16th and lower.
  • Unbeaten home and away v the bottom 4.

Stoke other stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Unbeaten in 8 at home until meeting 2 of the big boys in Chelsea and Liverpool (1-2 losses).
  • Only 1 defeat at home outside the top 4.
  • 14 of 20 home goals scored first half.

Hull 100% stats

  • Solitary away win was v 18th.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Hull other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins compensating for the poor away form.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 15 away.
  • 25 of 38 goals conceded came 2nd half away.

Conclusions

  • On form, Stoke should not lose today. Hull are dire away and have no win in 15 away matches.
  • They have been superb at home but away cannot buy a win. Hull have scored and conceded recently, so lay them if they score first 'on form' - remembering they need points.

15:00 - Everton v Burnley - 1.47 Everton

  • 2-1 Burnley in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 12th in the English Premiership. 5th and 6th have 2 games in hand over Everton so a top 4 spot, whilst mathematically possible, will require a little bit of luck.
  • 8 points clear of relegation, Burnley have built their season on their home form.

Everton 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home outside the top 4.
  • Wins v 6th-15th inclusive at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Everton other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 or more goals scored in those matches.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 16 goals scored in the last 15 mins of home matches.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Burnley other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 and kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4. 2 0-0 matches there.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have conceded 2 goals at least away v all bar 1 of the top 13.

Conclusions

  • On form Everton should be scoring 2 goals at least today and that should secure the win. Burnley must be opposed if leading at any stage.
  • Yes, 0-0 is in play given what seems a concerted effort by Burnley to shut up shop but the fact is that they keep conceding 2 goals regularly away v top 13.
  • Watch out for late goal action if Everton are drawing or losing. They have scored heavily last 15 minutes at home.

15:00 - Sunderland v West Ham - 2.32 West Ham

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 West Ham wins in head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 20th in the Premiership.Sunderland are 10 points from safety and have to assume with that, that none of the other bottom 4 wins any more matches.
  • They are doomed, Captain Mainwaring, doomed I say!  I will not do full research but point out the major patterns.

Sunderland

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 9 of their last 10, ironically with the new England striker at the helm.
  • Competitive v 10th and lower at home. 3 wins, a 0-0 and 1-3, 2-3, 1-2 defeats.
  • 10 of 14 home goals scored 2nd half.

West Ham

  • No win in 7 ended with a 1-0 win v Swansea.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 11 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away.
  • Unbeaten v bottom 3 1-3 and 1-4 away.

Conclusions

  • Sunderland ordinarily look for a 0-0 at halftime then go for a 1-0 2nd half. Beware a West Ham side finding the bottom 3 easy pickings. They have been dire themselves of late but scored 7 goals in 2 matches at home v the bottom 3.
  • A relegation six pointer so form could be thrown out of the window but if pushed, and based on form, I would side with West Ham not to lose. If 0-0 halftime I would even back 1-3, 1-4 in case they let loose away v another bottom 3 side.

15:15 - Sporting Gijon v Real Madrid - 1.43 Real Madrid

  • 0-0 the last time Real visited Gijon. Usually real win.
  • This is 18th v 1st in the Spanish La Liga. Can Gijon win as Cortone did v giants Inter? Sporting desperately need 3 points.
  • Given we are at that point in the season, I will just list the standout stats here. We may see a match in which Gijon could play above themselves.
  • Gijon conceded last 15 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side and lost all v top 3.
  • They have scored in all bar 1 match at home v top 12 sides.
  • Wins tend to come v bottom 4 though.
  • Real Madrid have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches and are post Champions League.
  • Real have scored in every match.
  • Real scored and conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • All wins v 14th and lower saw them conceding again away.
  • Real Madrid are likely to give Gijon a chance here so do not be surprised with a Gijon goal and react if it is scored first.
  • Remember real Madrid have not failed to score all season. It worked well as an angle last match and will do so again if they meet a defensive Gijon.

16:00 - Monaco v Dijon - 1.28 Monaco

  • Potential Champions League distractions for Monaco may hinder the usual goal avalanche. It did last week in a rather function 0-1 win over Angers.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 19th and again no full research given a) Champions League may muddy form b) Dijon Must(ard) win to be in with a chance of dragging 5th and 4th bottom into the relegation scrap.
  • So just a list of major stats.

Monaco stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 14 at home.
  • Scored in their last 25 matches.
  • 15 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Tend to go to town at home to strugglers. 6-5-2-6-4-5 scored at home v bottom 7 at home.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Dijon stats

  • A win could really help stave off relegation in what is a tight bottom half of the French Ligue 1.
  • Only 1 win in 10 though.
  • Only 7 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1 draws a sign of fight?
  • Scored and conceded in their last 10 away is also a sign of fight.
  • 6 0-1 leads at halftime but only 1 win at fulltime. Dijon layable if leading at halftime.
  • Not beaten a top 17 side away.
  • 22 of 31 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Caveat - Monaco have an eye on a winnable Champions League 2nd leg. They are also on the same points as PSG at the top so this is a case of stick or twist for the manager. He must by default field a strong side.
  • Both teams are highly likely to score so watch out if Dijon score first. Lay Dijon if they score first.
  • Without Champions League distractions, Monaco could score 4+ goals but I think 1-0 (as with Angers last week) will do them nicely, and rest the 2 big guns 2nd half?
  • Lay any late draw.

17:30 - Southampton v Man City - 1.8 Man City

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 9th v 4th in the Premiership.with 7th place some 14 points away, I think Southampton's season cannot get any better so watch out for a mental 'switching off'. Top 2 is still realisable for Man City but they must keep winning.

Southampton 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away but only played top 3 at home.

Southampton other stats

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was v Spurs.

Man City 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

Man City other stats

  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches away v top 9 teams.

Conclusions

  • Southampton are yet to meet a top 6 side and are in good form but City have only lost to Chelsea in 10 matches.
  • City are clearly vulnerable away v top 9 teams so I am not 100% behind them but like their recent form enough to think they can get through this match without losing.

17:30 - Atl Madrid v Osasuna - 1.18 Atl Madrid

  • 0-3 Atl Madrid in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 20th in Spanish La Liga. A top 3 spot it seems is the best Atl Madrid can hope for.
  • No full research here as Osasuna are relegated.
  • Only 5 defeats for Atl Madrid.
  • All wins at home v 12th and lower. Atl Madrid scored 5 and 7 at home v bottom 3.
  • Osasuna have lost every match v top 6 teams.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Osasuna.
  • I expect Atl Madrid to do as the odds suggest. 3/4 goals today and leading by halftime. Osasuna's wins are great but they just lose to top 6 teams.

17:30 - Leverkusen v Bayern Munich - 1.67 Bayern

  • Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last 3 home head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 1st in the German Bundesliga. Leverkusen is 6 points above the relegation zone.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • Lost all matches home and away v top 3.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.

Bayern Munich 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams outside the top 4.
  • All wins home and away v 11th and lower.

Bayern Munich other stats

  • Only 2 defeats were the only matches they failed to score.
  • 9 goals scored away last 1/4 hour.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen keep losing v top 3. The only time Bayern lose is when they fail to score. If they get a goal, then they should win. They tend to beat teams 11th and lower so, bar any 'desperation stakes' improvement in Leverkusen, Bayern should win.
  • Note the late goals for Bayern in case they are in trouble 75th minute plus.

19:45 - Barcelona v Sociedad - 1.24 Barcelona

  • 1-0 Sociedad and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads in the league.
  • This is 2nd v 6th in the Spanish Primera Division.
  • I will not do full research here as Barcelona meet Juventus in the Champions League mid week.
  • As with Malaga, they meet a side they have had real trouble with.
  • Barcelona though have not had 2 consecutive defeats in the League this season.
  • Barcelona have only failed to score twice, and that was against Malaga.
  • Real Sociedad have lost all 5 matches away v top 8 sides. No draw in 15 away matches for Sociedad.
  • Really Barcelona should win. They won comfortably in the league at home before their PSG match.
  • Barcelona really should not lose today. They will want to score and only tend not to score against Malaga.

19:45 - Napoli v Udinese - 1.29 Napoli

  • 1-2 Napoli in the last head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 11th in Italian Seria A.

Napoli 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away outside of the top 5.
  • Beaten 6th-15th inclusive at home, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Napoli other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 0-1 losses at halftime. Considering they have lost only 2 home matches, fear not if Napoli are losing HT. They have shown they can get back into it.

Udinese 100% stats

  • Lost to all top 4 teams away - not beaten a top 4 team home or away.

Udinese other stats

  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 matches includes a 1-1 v Juventus.
  • Only 7 clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3 1-3 wins out of 4 away so when they win, they win big!
  • 27 of 40 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Napoli are highly likely to score if 0-0 or 0-1 for a while. Note that.
  • If Napoli are losing halftime, bank on them getting back into it 2nd half.
  • Udinese cannot beat the top 4 teams - despite good recent form and a 1-1 v Juve, any reason to suspect an anomolous win?