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https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2027647181104161547 is the link to today's live chat webinar. 14:30 kick off. There is a review/preview video at DRT Facebook page. Remember the Curse of the Champions League may strike participants (and don't forget the Europa League on Thursday - red bull Salzburg lost, Atl Madrid drew - you may like a blanket lay of teams in their league matches prior to these mid-week matches).

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Ross Co v St Johnstone - 2.56 St Johnstone

  • 1st goal: Ross County have scored first in 6/10 home matches while St Johnstone have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. St Johnstone have drawn the first half in 13/20 away matches.
  • No thanks. I will take a quick neutral look in the DRT Facebook video.

15:00 - Rangers v Livingston - 1.19 Rangers

  • Match outcome: Rangers have won 10/12 home matches against top-half teams while Livingston have lost 6/9 away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Rangers have won by two or more goals in 9/16 home matches.

Rangers - 2nd

  • Game in hand over Celtic and must win given the gap of 10 points to Celtic.
  • 3-1 and 0-2 wins v Livingston already this season.
  • 100% wins v 5th and lower at home.
  • 1-2-0-2-1 goals scored recently - did score 2 goals at home but struggling elsewhere.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.

Livingston

  • 2+ goals conceded away v the top 8 - no win.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 13 away matches.
  • 20 of 28 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I still maintain that Rangers have trouble scoring, but at home they have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 home matches.
  • Rangers may get away with Livvy's generosity - conceding 2+ goals in all aways v the top 8 without winning.

15:00 - Motherwell v St Mirren - 1.99 Motherwell

  • Match outcome: Motherwell have won 10/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Mirren have lost 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Motherwell have scored first in 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Motherwell - 4th

  • A draw and 3 losses last 4 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 2-0 and 0-3 wins v St Mirren already this season.

St Mirren - 10th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches. 2 1-0 wins.
  • 46% of 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Motherwell have 2 wins against St Mirren this season. And easy wins at that. Given St Mirren have only 1 away win, Motherwell could find their 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home may end. They must address they failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

15:00 - Hearts v Hamilton - 1.61 Hearts

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Hearts home matches against bottom-six teams and in 6/8 Hamilton Ac away matches against bottom-six teams. Hamilton Ac have lost 12/20 away matches.

Hearts - 12th

  • Only 2 wins at home v 2nd and 10th.
  • 2-2 and 2-1 loss v Hamilton earlier this season.
  • Only 1 win since 23rd November 2019.
  • 2-3-2-0 goals scored recently. Failed to score v Celtic but may have goals in them today v 2nd bottom?
  • Conceded last 12 matches. 2+ goals scored in each of their last 2 home matches.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hamilton - 11th

  • Only 1 away win v 4th.
  • 3/3 draws away v 10th and lower.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.

Conclusions

  • Bottom 2 sides! YIKES. But if Hearts an score the 2+ goals they scored in 2 of their last 3 matches, this could see them right today. Best case a draw for Hamilton ? 3/3 draws away v 10th and lower.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Southampton v Burnley - 1.84 Southampton

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Southampton home matches against middle-third teams and in 12/19 Burnley away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/9 Southampton home matches against middle-third teams.

Southampton - 13th

  • Only 2 losses in 8 came v Wolves and Liverpool.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win v the top 9 at home came v 6th .

Burnley - 11th

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches ended a run of 4 losses.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets includes at home v Arsenal.
  • 3-0 win v Saints earlier this season.
  • All away defeats v the top 10.
  • 8/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We know all too well, Saints since 1st December have been transferred under the same manager, Ralph Unpronouncable name.
  • Saints have goals in them so will have a chance here. They have scored in their last 3 at home. Only Wolves and Liverpool have beaten Saints in their last 8 matches so Burnley are not expected to oblige but Burnley have had 2 clean sheets in  a row now. An attack v defence match. Who do you think will out?

17:30 - Norwich v Liverpool - 1.32 Liverpool (Champions League for Liverpool 19th February)

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/12 Norwich home matches and +2.5 goals in 9/12 Norwich home matches. Liverpool have won 8/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • No research here. The outcome conclusions are obvious. A Liverpool away win, and a possible Liverpool lead before halftime. Do please note that Champions League match upcoming. One of the big 3 forwards might be rested by Klopp given his perception that Norwich are a step down strength wise.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Mallorca v Alaves - 2.54 Mallorca

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Mallorca home matches. Alaves have won 8/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Newly promoted Mallorca. 2.54 the favourite. DRT video and in-play stats for me!

15:00 - Barcelona v Getafe - 1.48 Barcelona

  • Match outcome: Barcelona have won 15/16 home matches and they have had W/W double results in 9/12 home matches against top-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Getafe away matches.

Barcelona - 2nd

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Under new manager, 1-0 win, 2-0 away loss v Valencia, 2-1 home win and 2-3 away win. Very unconvincing wins, but wins nonetheless. Will this new manager still generate one-goal-in-it matches?
  • 0-0's at halftime in his first 2 matches.
  • Barca scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 before halftime.

Getafe - 3rd

  • I have told you about Getafe this season. They have been excellent, particularly at home.
  • 4 consecutive wins  and 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • When they failed to score this season....they lost.
  • No draw in 9 matches.
  • 4/4 defeats home and away v the top 5. Yet to meet the top 2 away but lost to them at home.

Conclusions

  • Getafe are in excellent form - 3rd in the league! But noticeably they have lost at home to the top 2 and away v 2 of the top 5.
  • Barcelona are under new management and this could be a tight match. They have been very unconvincing but have 3 wins in 4, all one-goal-in-it matches.
  • Watching brief for me. The value may be in laying Barcelona if they lead. There are no Champions League distractions in the coming week for Barcelona. They may just win but....just!

17:30 - Villarreal v Levante - 1.56 Villareal

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Villarreal home matches against middle-third teams and in 6/8 Levante away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Levante have lost 9/12 away matches.

Villareal - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 45% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 15 but strangely lost to 17th and 20th at home.
  • 18 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Levante - 11th

  • 4 losses ended with a win last match.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 12 away matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 14  bar 2 wins v 6th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Villareal are the side to be with with 5 wins in 7 matches and being unbeaten v the top 15 at home. Levante have all defeats away v the top 14.

20:00 - Granada v Valladolid - 2.58 Granada

  • 1st half outcome: Granada CF have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 11/14 Valladolid away matches against middle-third teams. Valladolid have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Another tough to call match in Spain.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Lecce v Spal - 2.26 Lecce

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Lecce home matches and in 5/8 SPAL 1907 away matches against bottom-six teams. SPAL 1907 have won 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Lecce - 17th

  • Only 5 wins all season but 2 consecutive wins v Torino and Napoli no less.
  • 7 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 home win v 13th. 1-3 win v SPAL already this season.
  • 73% of goals scored at home came 2nd half, 61% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

SPAL - 20th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins last 4 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 11 matches and last 6 away.
  • Not played the bottom 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Only 5 wins all season plays only 4 wins all season. How can we trust these 2? Maybe Lecce's 7 goals in 2 matches is a sign that we could be with the home side today? If this momentum can be sustained.

17:00 - Bologna v Genoa - 1.9 Bologna

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Bologna home matches against bottom-six teams and in 12/16 Genoa away matches against top-half teams. Genoa have lost 12/16 away matches against top-half teams.

Bologna - 7th

  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins recently.
  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 10 at home.
  • Conceded last 18 matches.
  • 6 wins and a 0-0 last 7 matches v 16th and lower.

Genoa - 18th

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • No win in 12 away matches.
  • 6 losses and 2 draws away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • Genoa consistently concede 2+ goals away v the top 9 and that could leave them vulnerable to a Bologna in good form. A Bologna, though, who do score and concede so they may allow Genoa in. Genoa, if scoring first, should not win.

19:45 - Atalanta v Roma - 1.85 Atalanta

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 10/12 Atalanta home matches and +2.5 goals in 11/12 Atalanta home matches. Roma have drawn 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Atalanta - 4th

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • Pre-Champions League.
  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches were 1-2 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 6 at home.
  • 0-2 win v Roma last head to head.
  • 4/5 defeats this season came at home.
  • 2+ goals conceded at home v the top 8.

Roma - 5th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 4 losses, a draw and a win last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 3 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Unbeaten away v the top 7. Lost away v 9th and 12th.

Conclusions

  • A top 5 clash may be a tight clash. Will Atalanta be affected by a very important Champions League match next week?
  • Will Atalanta concede 2+ goals again at home v the top 8? A match I will prefer to follow via the in-play stats on account of the ? regarding a pre-Champions League Atalanta.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg - 2.56 Hoff

  • 1st goal: Hoffenheim have scored first in 10/20 home matches while Wolfsburg have lost 6/9 away matches against top-half teams. Wolfsburg have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against top-half teams.
  • I will take a look via the DRT Facebook video for this 2.56 the favourite match.

Leipzig v Werder Bremen - 1.28 Leipzig

  • 1st half outcome: RB Leipzig have won the first half in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 6/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 W. Bremen away matches against top-six teams.

Leipzig - 2nd

  • Are in the Champions League. Will this affect them today?
  • A loss and 2 draws last 3 matches. A poor run and now prior to Champions League.
  • 5 consecutive home wins ended with a draw.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored last 10 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 mins of home matches.

Werder Bremen - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 9 losses in 11 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches recently but only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No win home and away v the top 9. 2+ goals conceded away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League Leipzig did lose v Schalke at home so may be vulnerable today but surely Werder Bremen, in their current state, cannot muster a shock? Leipzig to score 2+ goals?
  • Statistically we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but what puts me off is Werder's 3 0-0's in 4 matches at halftime.

Union Berlin v Leverkusen - 2 Leverkusen

  • 1st half outcome: Union Berlin have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 Union Berlin home matches. Leverkusen have scored first in 8/11 away matches.

Union Berlin - 11th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches but only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • 5 wins and a loss at home last 6 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Beat 3rd and 4th at home, but lost to 2nd at home.
  • Of the top 10 at home, they beat 3rd, 4th and 8th.

Leverkusen - 5th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 9 and in 10 away.
  • Losses away v 3rd, 7th, 9th, and 13th.
  • 5 wins and a loss away v 10th and lower.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I like Leverkusen's 5 wins v 10th and lower away. But...watch out for Union Berlin at home, beating 3rd, 4th and 8th at home.
  • Leverkusen play Porto in the Europa League on the 20th February - will that impact today's performance.
  • I cannot discount the Union Berlin home form v the top 10.

Paderborn v Hertha - 2.66 Hertha

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/11 SC Paderborn home matches and +2.5 goals in 7/8 Hertha Berlin away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 Hertha Berlin away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Paderborn look immediately opposable but that's not what the market thinks so I will discuss via the DRT Facebook page video.

Augsburg v Freiburg - 2.12 Augsburg

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Augsburg home matches against top-half teams and in 8/10 SC Freiburg away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 SC Freiburg away matches against middle-third teams.

Augsburg - 12th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-5-3-3 goals conceded at home v the top 6.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Freiburg - 8th

  • 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 8 away matches.
  • Conceded last 9 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Lost away v 4th, 11th, 13th, 14th.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.

Conclusions

  • Augsburg have poor recent form but 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • Expect goals today. Not a match though in which I can really trust either side.

Dusseldorf v Mgladbach - 1.89 Mgladbach

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 F Dusseldorf home matches against top-six teams. B. M'gladbach have drawn the first half in 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Dusseldorf - 16th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • 0-0-2-0-1 goals scored at home recently.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 5 at home.
  • 100% losses home and away v the top 5 .

Mgladbach - 4th

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches came away.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Mgladbach have been poor away from home recently. But they play the right type of side to end this winless run.
  • Only 1 win in 11 matches for Dusseldorf and 100% defeats at home v the top 5.