Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Odds taken from www.willhill.com

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

12:15 UK Norwich v Ipswich - 1.8 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 in the first leg of this Championship play-off saw Ipswich score 4 minutes after conceding.  Norwich have the away goal here and advantage. They need to keep a clean sheet to go through today
  • Norwich won 3 of the previous head to heads prior to the first leg play-off so must be feeling confident.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I cannot get any angles in here at all and will leave this match alone.
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12:30 UK Arminia Bielefeld v Regensburg - 1.2 home banker

Standout Stats

  • 0-1 to Bielefeld the last time these 2 met.
  • This is top v bottom in the Bundesliga 3 and well worth checking out given that this is crunch time.

Arminia

  • 2 points clear at the top of the league.
  • 2 matches remain this season. This is the final home match.
  • No defeat in 16 at home
  • Scored in their last 18 at home.
  • 2 consecutive score draws have given 2nd in the league hope and left Arminia with this need to win.
  • Scored2+ goals in their last 9 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • All wins at home v 12th and lower scoring between 2-4 goals and keeping all clean sheets bar one match.

Regensburg

  • Are doomed, Captain Mainwaring.all defeats away v 14th and above.
  • Will go down even if they win their last 2 matches.
  • 5 match losing streak away . No win in 15 away
  • Have conceded in their last 18 away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Given the context of this match, Arminia Bielefeld look banker material today. Nerves could of course get the better of them (check out Besiktas's recent implosion when bang in contention for the title). The form points to a home win, scoring at least 2 goals.
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12:45 UK Southampton v Aston Villa - 1.8 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-3 Villa, 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 14th in the Premiership. Saints get within 2 points of 5th spot with a win today. Aston Villa are still in a precarious position. They are only 4 points above the bottom 3. A win or a draw for Villa today and they should be safe. But if Hull win their 2 remaining matches, Villa will still mathematically be in trouble.

Southampton

  • I am not sure Saints have anything really to play for.
  • No defeat in 4 at home
  • Saints have conceded 2-2-2-2 in their last 4 matches, losing 3 and drawing 1.
  • 1-2-2-2 scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 3 wins to nil at home ended with a 2-2 last time out at home.
  • All home defeats v top 8
  • All wins bar a 0-0 v 11th and lower at home.
  • Only 1 goal conceded at home v 9th and lower.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home
  • 19 2nd half and 12 1st half goals scored at home

Aston Villa

  • No draw in 11 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches and last 4 away
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Fair do's to Robin of Sherwood.
  • Scored in 8 of their last 9 matches. This is the reason for the success quite obviously, where before Villa could not score.
  • Losses away v top 4 but wins away v 5th and 6th 0-1.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 10 1-0 defeats at halftime away
  • 13 goals conceded in the last 1/2 hour away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is going to be another tight one. Villa cannot afford to lose. They have lost away recently to United and Man City but did beat Spurs 0-1 so if they are going to win, they should win 0-1 or 1-2.
  • Saints are conceding readily recently. I think Villa will score, so lay Southampton if Saints score first . 3 wins in 4. Villa mean business.
  • Saints are tough to score against at home but I think they will concede today.
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14:30 UK Stuttgart v Hamburg - 1.73 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Stuttgart in head to heads.
  • This is 18th ( bottom) v 14th in the Bundesliga.A win takes Stuttgart out of relegation ( pending other results). A win for Hamburg brings Hertha Berlin into the relegation dogfight.

Stuttgart

  • Inserting Stuttgart as odds on favourites is perhaps more optimistic than Stuttgart supporters would feel
  • No defeat in 5 at home
  • Have scored in their last 7 matches and last 4 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2-0-3-3-2-2 scored in their last 6 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower. 4 clean sheets in 5 matches at home to 12th and lower.

Hamburg

  • 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 7 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 overall and last 6 away.
  • 5 losses away ended with a win last time out.
  • 0-0 away v 15th, 2-0 loss away 16th , 0-3 win 17th.
  • 19 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Hamburg have hit form at precisely the right time and ended a long run without scoring. This might present a problem to the 1.73 odds today for Stuttgart who are solid at home, but are scoring and conceding. I would back both teams to score today. Stuttgart might manage 2 goals at least today. They are unbeaten v 11th and lower.
  • An interesting match where a neutral both teams to score or over 2.5 goals angle would be my way in here.
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14:30 UK Freiburg v Bayern Munich - 1.55 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a dead rubber. As you have seen Bayern Munich suddenly start losing matches directly after winning the league.
  • Freiburg need a win. Bayern have won their last 2 head to heads at home.
  • 2 matches remaining this season.  Freiburg have scored and conceded in their last 4 matches. In 6 of 7 matches home and away v top 4, Freiburg failed to score.
  • 0-0's v 3rd and 4th at home. Bayern have kept 10 clean sheets in 13 away matches v 5th and lower .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Must win in their last match at home v dead rubber and dumped out of the Champions League.
  • On bare form, Freiburg tend to fail to score against the top 4. Add to this Bayern keeping clean sheets generally away from home v 4th and below. This should be a win to nil for Bayern or a 0-0 best case for Freiburg.
  • Which way will you go? The Bayern Dead rubber aspect makes this tough to predict.
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14:30 UK Bayer Leverkusen v Hoffenheim - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • The market tends to get it right when gauging the Hoff.
  • 5 wins for Bayer and a 2-3 win for Hoffenheim.
  • This is 4th v 9th in the Bundesliga.
  • Bayer are 4th, 5 points shy of 3rd in the league. Hoff are on 41 points. 4 points shy of 6th.

Bayer Leverkusen

  • Only 2 matches remaining so Bayer need to win both to place themselves in with a chance of 3rd spot .
  • 5 match home winning streak.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 came v 3rd
  • 8 wins in the last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 2nd .
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 25 of 37 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim

  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. Bayern beat Hoff 2-0
  • Only 1 win in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 2 0--0's at halftime in 12 of their last 14 matches.
  • No wins away v 11th and above.
  • All losses away v top 7
  • Only 2 0-0's away
  • 18 of 27 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • As I said at the start, Hoffenheim don't tend to win when not priced to do so. As with Dortmund, the market has tended to get it right with Hoffenheim.
  • Bayer tend to win head to heads and have the requisite motivation today.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Lay Hoff if they score first.
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15:00 UK Tottenham v Hull - 1.75 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 and 1-2 to Spurs in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 18th. Top 5 hopes are slim for Spurs unless Liverpool don't win today. Hull will bring Liecester,Sunderland and Newcastle into the mix with a win today.The remain 3rd bottom with a draw.

Spurs

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home
  • Beat 19th and 20th at home . Did lose 1-2 to 4th bottom at home.
  • 67% over 2.5 goals at home
  • Only 2 0-0's at home

Hull City

  • No draw in 3 away matches
  • Only 1 win in 8 away was v Crystal Palace.
  • No wins away v top 11 this season
  • Have draws v 2nd, 3rd and 5th
  • 10 0-0's at halftime away
  • Opponents have scored first in 12 of 18 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is another toughie to call. 2 matches left. Hull must win. Spurs season is all but finished. Hull's beating of Palace and Liverpool recently draws the eye but they have consistently failed to beat any team in the top 11 away from home. Join me at the live chat today and this match will unfurl via in-play stats.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A quick mention for the 2 matches below. 2.6 odds tells you everything here. The bookmakers cannot split the 2 teams. The matches could go any of 3 ways and are not worth researching. As i stated with the SPurs match, join me in the live chat today and we will be able to see if any angles arise via the in-play stats.  One thing I will note is that Sunderland have a game in hand over all relegation threatened sides. Win today and they really will get the ball rolling.

15:00 UK West Ham v Everton - 2.6 away

15:00 UK Sunderland v Leicester - 2.6 home

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15:00 UK QPR v Newcastle - 2.4 away

Standout Stats

  • Newcastle are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads and won 1-0 earlier in the season at home.
  • This is 20th v 17th in the Premiership. QPR have 27 points. 4th bottom ( Newcastle) have 36 points.

QPR

  • QPR are down. This match therefore is all about Newcastle's attempt to extricate themselves from the mess which seems to follow their Chairman .
  • There is some hope for Newcastle but they might need Wor Jackie Milburn, or Mickey Quinn up front. QPR have scored 0-0-1-1-1-0-0 in their last few home matches. 0-0 against West Ham I followed via in-play stats and actually saw QPR dominating.
  • QPR have failed to score in 3of their last 4 matches.
  • A concern for Newcastle is QPR's home form v 13th and lower. They have won 5 and lost only one match 0-1. But was this when they had a fighting spirit?

Newcastle

  • Viz character Biffa Bacon will be out to smack Mike Ashley if Newcastle go down.
  • 5 match losing streak away. Newcastle have conceded in their last 6 away matches and not scored in their last 5 away matches.
  • 8 losses and a 1-1 in their last 9 matches. A draw will not be enough because of their woeful goal difference so this is all or nothing today for Newcastle.
  • Newcastle showed up really well against West Brom stats wise and deserved to win that match but for woeful finishing.
  • Newcastle are unbeaten against teams below them home and away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • There is a glimmer of hope for Newcastle today. They are unbeaten v teams below them this season and showed up well stats wise against West Brom. I would lay QPR if they score first.
  • QPR's solid performances v 13th and lower I think came in a time where they had something to fight for.
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15:00 UK Burnley v Stoke - 2.62 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-2 to Burnley in the last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 9th
  • If Burnley don't win today, they are down. If Hull win or draw ( goal difference) Burnley are down.
  • Burnley's tactics are clear, as shown by their 5 consecutive 1-0 results ( alas 4 defeats and a win last time out). They want to nick a 1-0.
  • Burnley have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches though, but did Man City 1-0
  • Burnley have failed to score more than 1 goal in a single match v top 10 teams at home.
  • Stoke have 4 score draws away to the bottom 4.
  • They have not won any of their last 4 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This should be another Burnley-engineered rear-guard action. Look for a concerted period of 0-0 as they search for that 1-0 win which will see them go to the end of the season if Hull lose.
  • I would consider backing 0-0 pre-match in  the hope this is a tight match.
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15:00 UK SCR Altach v Salzburg - 1.25 away

Standout Stats

  • Altach have won the last 2 league matches but were beaten 0-4 in the cup last time out.
  • This is 4th v 1st in the Austrian Bundesliga.

Altach

  • 10 without a draw at home
  • Scored in their last 13 at home.
  • 9 consecutive home wins ended with a defeat last time out.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Salzburg

  • 4 match winning streak
  • Scored in their last 8 matches and last 11 away matches.
  • 84% over 2.5 goals all season.
  • 62% over 3.5 goals all season
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads put me off favouring Salzburg today. The market though is adamant.
  • Lay any late draw in the hope Altach continue to avoid draws.
  • Back over 2.5 goals if this is 0-0 for a concerted period of time. Salzburg stats are strong.
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16:00 UK Dinamo Zagreb v Hajduk Split - 1.5 home banker home team not losing

Standout Stats

  • 5-0, 3-0, 3-0 the last 3 home head to heads for Dinamo Zagreb.
  • This is 1st v 3rd in the Croatian top flight.
  • You should know this off by heart now. Dinamo Zagreb have not lost a home league match since August 2010.
  • That, my friends, is my angle in. Let's hope Hajduk Split score first then eh?

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I never research home matches for Dinamo Zagreb such is their home track record. Away teams must be layed if taking the lead.
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17:30 UK Liverpool v Crystal Palace - 1.44 home team highly unlikely to lose in Stevie G La 's last home match.

Standout Stats

  • 3-3 and 3-1 to Palace in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 12th in the Premiership. Palace are safe and that might be the saving grace for Liverpool today.
  • 2 matches remain and Liverpool must win both and hope Man Utd lose their 2 in order to steal 4th spot. It's not going to happen I don't think.
  • This is also Steven Gerrard's last home match.

Liverpool

  • Ample motivation to win today
  • 2 match home winning streak, Liverpool have scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • 6 wins and a loss to Man Utd in their last 7 home matches.
  • Liverpool have had to score at least 2 goals at home to win recently.
  • Only 3 defeats at home v 1st, 4th and 14th.
  • Scored first in 14 of 18 home matches.

Crystal Palace

  • No draw in 11 matches and in 7 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 5 away
  • 4 consecutive defeats now but are safe from relegation.
  • Have not beaten any top 8 side away from home losing to all top 4.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Palace have done well in head to heads, but the competitive edge may evapourate today. They are safe from relegation. Liverpool must win to have a slim hope of 4th spot. Gerrard's last home match, and Liverpool's recent solid form at home should see them win , now Palace have a 4 match losing streak.
  • Lay Palace if they score first.
  • Back a penalty today? And Gerrard to score?
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17:45 UK Bray v St Patricks - 1.25 away banker

Standout Stats

  • 3-3-3-3-4-3 scored by St Pats in the last 6 head to heads.
  • This is 11th of 12 v 5th in the Irish Premier League.

Bray Wanderers

  • 3-5-8-4 conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 5 defeats at home and a win v Limerick
  • Only 2 clean sheets all season.
  • Failed to score in 83% of home matches.

St Patricks

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • No defeat in 9 overall and in 4 away
  • Only 2 defeats all season
  • 3 wins in their last 4 away matches.
  • 67% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • For a home side conceding so heavily to meet an away side consistently scoring 3 goals against them, it all looks a little terminal for Bray.
  • Over 4.5 goals may have a chance today so back it if 0-0 for a while.
  • Bray should not land a blow but have scored in defeat last twice so if scoring first, lay them.
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19:00 UK Limerick v Cork City - 1.35 away

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil for Cork in head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Irish Premier League.

Limerick

  • No wins this season
  • All draws score draws. Drew 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • 3 draws in their last 5 home matches.
  • No clean sheets
  • Both teams have scored in 2/3rd of current home matches.

Cork City

  • No defeat in 6 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 2 match winning streak
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches this season
  • 4 draws in 6 away matches.
  • 17% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The draw crops up a lot with these 2 this season and is not out of the equation.  Lay Limerick if they score first though as it seems they cannot win at the moment and are playing an undefeated side away from home.
  • Both teams could score today.
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20:00 UK Monaco v Metz - 1.25 home banker

Standout Stats

  • 0-1 to Monaco earlier this season came via a 79th minute winner.
  • This is 3rd v 19th in Ligue 1.  Monaco must win in order to guarantee 3rd place. 2nd seems out of their grasp with 2 matches remaining. 3rd I think ensures Champions League football.
  • Metz are down , even if they win their 2 remaining matches.
  • Only 3 defeats for Monaco since October 2014 and they lost their last match. I cannot see them losing a 2nd consecutive match.
  • 5 draws in their last 7 home matches is a concern.
  • Monaco though are unbeaten at homein their last 14 matches and have beaten 2 of the bottom 3 2-0.
  • Metz have only 1 away win and have lost to all top 5 away, conceding 2/3 v the top 4 away.
  • 17 of their 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Profitable In-Play opportunities

  • This could be a banker for Monaco today given the requisite motivation and form. The draws are a worry but Metz emphatically lose to top 5 teams away. Metz have nothing to play for , Monaco everything.
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20:00 UK Montpellier v Paris Saint-Germain - 1.44 away

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive PSG clean sheets in head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 1st. A draw or a win today secures the title for PSG.
  • All of Montpellier's home defeats have come against top 8 sides and that could be telling today.
  • PSG it must be said are a lot ropier away from home, with only 2 away wins v 11th and higher in the league.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Short and sweet really given the context . Bank on PSG getting the win or draw they need? Therefore lay Montpellier should they lead at any stage.
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